[OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FREEZING DRIZZLE PATCHES EXPECTED TODAY WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30MPH AT TIMES, CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND BRIEFLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES… WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE DUE TO THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL… THIS OCCASIONALLY, LIGHTLY UNSETTLED WINTER WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW… NICE WINTER DAY ON THURSDAY… MORE SNOW AND RAIN FRIDAY… NICE SATURDAY… MORE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY… COLDER AIR RETURNS NEXT WEEK… HELLO, FEBRUARY… 6:50AM TUES]
Good morning everybody, thanks so much for all of your reports and kindnesses yesterday! Quite a storm!
How much snow did you get?
By the way, a reader had emailed me regarding what happened yesterday in terms of why the downsloping/shadowing forecast did not really pan out in the valley floor, so I thought I would share that below. If you just want the forecast, scroll down and it will be there waiting for you.
SHADOW/SCHMADOW, WHAT HAPPENED?
With respect to the Pioneer Valley, and as a reminder, I originally had called for 6-10″ in the valley, with a potential for 8-12″ in easternmost Hampshire county and the Brattlelboro to Keene corridor.
Yesterday, when shadowing was not setting up and a heavy snow band set up over Hampshire County I updated the entire central and lower valley to 8-12″ with some 13″ and 14″ amounts possible (probably should have done that for Franklin County as well).
To briefly review what downsloping/shadowing is… easterly winds blow moist air off of the ocean and into the Worcester Hills to our east. Hills and mountains, by their presence, force air skyward, and rising air condenses and precipitates out, producing more snow over central MA. Then, that same air sinks into the valley as it crosses over, and as it sinks, it dries out, lightening the precipitation shield. Finally, as it re-ascends into the western hilltowns and Berkshires, heavier snows resume.
As for this situation, I believe that because the storm stalled for longer than expected more south, the easterly low level jet didn’t set up as quickly, and our surface winds remained out of the northeast and north, so the effect didn’t setup.
That, in combination with the heavy snow band that sat on us from about 4pm to 8pm, is why we saw more snow than expected in the central and southern valleys.
TUESDAY WEATHER REPORT
For today and tomorrow, we will remain under the influence of our stalled upper low and associated surface low.
The storm dynamics responsible for yesterday’s major nor’easter are mostly NW of us, though some final snow showers are sprinkling down on Bennington County VT, the northern Taconics and the northwest Berkshires as I type.
For the rest of the today, north winds will gust up to 30mph or so at times, and we will see occasional patches of freezing drizzle or light snow showers. We can’t rule out areas of new coatings or ice glaze. In fact, SVT and the Berkshires/western hilltowns may see up to an inch or so in some persistent snow showers if a more northwest wind can setup.
Between that, and blowing snow pushing snow into road ways, watch our for slippery travel in spots today, as well as briefly lowered visibilities, especially as you drive open fields or lots.
Highs will reach the upper 20s to low 30s with wind chills in the teens at times, and lows will be in the upper teens to low 20s with a few more snow showers tonight.
For Wednesday, our old lumbering storm will finally start tracking east and out of here. There may be a renewed period of light snow south of the Pike as it passes by our longitude with some fresh coatings.
Highs again will be in the upper 20s to low 30s with lows either side of 20º.
On Thursday, we’ll see a beautiful winter day with highs in the low to mid 30s and mostly sunny skies with light winds as high pressure builds through the region. Lows will be in the upper teens with clouds increasing.
On early Friday, we’ll see a primary low tracking northwest of us, through the eastern Great Lakes, which will send milder air toward the region.
However, after a cold night and depending on when preciptation arrives, we could see accumulating snow, especially in the Berkshires, and western hilltowns, and possibly even in the valley before a mix with or changeover to rain.
Highs should reach the mid to upper 30s in the warm advection pattern. We always have to watch for little secondary waves of lower pressure to form along these warm fronts that can hold the cold in longer.
So Friday looks like a mixed precipitation day, and I will refine that piece of our atmospheric future as we get closer.
It does look colder by Friday night with lows near 20º, which will set us up for a beautiful start to our weekend!
Westerly breezes will be in effect under mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s and lows in the mid teens.
Then the Sunday and Monday period will deserve plenty of attention, as a signal for another strong snowstorm is showing up on computer guidance (one piece of which is attached to this post, showing snow spreading back into the region).
And if that weren’t enough, colder air is set to arrive on the heels of that system as we roll into the 2nd week of February, so all this to say, stay tuned for my daily reports and updates, as we’re in an active pattern right now.
And please remember to let me know much snow you ended up with, and please note if you actually measured, or are just eyeballed it.
Thanks and have a great day!