Good evening everybody, I just wanted to get another update out before dinner this evening. Our heavier snow band has continued to lift northwest into western Hampshire County, the southeastern Berkshires, and southwest Franklin county, but moderate to heavy snow has filled back in valley and other areas.
Snow continues across the region, and has finally made it into Franklin County, SW.NH and S.VT.
The back/southern edge of the steady snow/precipitation is coming ashore in southern CT and will continue to track NNW towards the WMass region tonight.
Steadier snows will start to break up and lighten between 10pm to 2am from south to north, and behind that dry slot punch, areas of light sleet, freezing drizzle or light snow showers are possible overnight.
I think in general we’re going to end up with a 6-12″ type storm region-wide, with some foot plus amounts in the jackpot zone I’ve been advertising, which is southeastern Berkshires, western Hampden County, down into northwest CT.
The central MA highlands in Worcester County will need to perform well in these final bands to be the second 10-16″ maxima I had originally thought. Might be more like 8-12″ there, but we shall see, as they are getting hammered right now in some parts of Worcester County with Lancaster recently reporting a 3″ accumulation in one hour!
I have this sneaking suspicion that southwestern VT into some of the northern Taconics and maybe even lower elevations in the northern Berkshires may end up with some 4-8″ zones, but we’ll see how they play out. I am not seeing any of those big 15-20″ spike amounts I thought a few places would get. While not impossible, my gut says most of those types of totals stayed well south of our region, but you tell me!
Got over a foot? Your weather nut wants to know.
Anyway, our storm is going through its final hours, and it was and is freaking beautiful out there today/tonight! A real nor’easter, and even though we’ve seen far worse ones, this was a healthy storm.
Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 20s with gusty northeast winds at times.
Outages have not been a big deal, except for the Cape where winds are HOWLING, and any outages will be very isolated.
For tomorrow, our upper low will be dawdling around twiddling its thumbs without aim, ambition or direction in life. As such, it will occasionally cry tears of light snow crystals, and maybe even coat the ground with its aimlessness in a few spots.
Highs will reach the upper 20s to low 30s with lows in the low to mid 20s with additional scattered snow showers around.
Wednesday is a transition day, Thursday looks gorgeous, and then we have more mixed rain and snow Friday.
Saturday looks mild and partly sunny, and then we have ANOTHER potential snowstorm to deal with Sunday night into Monday, and it could be another impactful one.
After that? Arctic cold moves back into the region, so keep it tuned here folks, I will be posting a full report in the morning (and will likely post another brief report later tonight before bed regarding the end of this storm).
I will go into more detail tomorrow morning about the week ahead.
Thanks very much to the new 500 or so of you that have joined the page over the past week, I am here every single day, every storm, 365 days a year, so if my daily morning reports don’t show up in your newsfeed like magic, treat me like a TV Channel and turn the station to this page, and I will be here.
Have a great evening, off to watch the snowfall and eat some dinner, thanks for all the great reports today, and please let me know below how much snow you have on the ground and what you are seeing out there!!! Thank you!!
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[WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE REGION-WIDE… WHAT’S IT DOING IN YOUR NECK OF THE WOODS? PLEASE POST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS BELOW… AFTER A MORNING LULL THAT FOLLOWED A BURST OF SNOW, SNOW IS FILLING BACK IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE MAIN EVENT GETS UNDER WAY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING… MAIN STORM IMPACT IS 2-11PM FOR WMASS/CMASS/NORTHERN CT, AND 5PM-2AM FOR SVT AND SWNH… ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED, AND WIND WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS OUR COASTAL LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS NORTH AND OUR LOW LEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY SNOW BANDS ROTATE NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO THE WMASS REGION AS THE DAY AND EVENING UNFOLD… 1:35PM MONDAY]
Good afternoon everybody, many of us (myself included) thought we’d continue with light snow during the morning, and then get into the moderate to heavy stuff in the afternoon and evening, but best I can tell, after our initial early morning snow burst that brought a coating to 2″ to parts of the region, drier air seeping south from our cold high to the north and into the northern periphery of our storm system dried any lighter precipitation out, which resulted in mainly overcast skies for some, and a few flurries.
That is all changing as of the 1pm hour.
Most areas have only accumulated a coating to 2″ at this point, though some areas in Litchfield County and the southern Taconics have accumulated 2-5″.
The bottom line is that our storm is finally sending the heavier snow bands north into our region.
Currently, light to moderate snow is tracking northward in WMass and CMass, heading toward SVT and SWNH, and heavy snow is headed north into the northern CT counties.
These bands will continue on northward as our low level jet streak (blowing out of the east at 60-75mph a mile up) also lifts northward, blowing very moist air into our cold surface temperatures, resulting in accumulating snow.
Visibilities will go down in heavy snow this afternoon and evening, both from intensity of snow earlier on, and then combined with strong easterly winds gusting 25-45mph later and into the evening, with whiteout and blizzard conditions possible.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
As for snow amounts, I’m leaving those alone which I’ll post below for convenience between a pair of dash——marks, though given the light accumulations we “lost” to drier air in the mid to late morning/noon timeframe, those amounts could end up coming down by 1-3″, so you can do the math.
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MORNING REPORT AMOUNTS
Generally speaking, 6-10″ in the Pioneer Valley from Windsor Locks over the valley floor.
8-12″ is expected in the Housatonic River Valley and Walloomsac River Valley of the western Berkshires and southwestern VT.
This range is also expected in easternmost Hampshire County, as well as the Brattleboro/Keene region of southeast VT and southwest NH, though don’t be surprised if these areas come in at 6-10 with stronger downsloping, we’ll just have to see.
Otherwise, I still think 10-16″ looks good for the southern Greens, western hilltowns, eastern Berkshires, central MA, eastern Cheshire County NH, the high terrain of eastern Franklin and eastern Hampden County, and the rest of northern CT.
Finally, I still think that a few favored upslope snow jackpot zones could form in the east-facing hills and mountains in the southeastern Berkshires, western Hampden/Hampshire Counties (possibly western Franklin too) and the eastern Litchfields where some folks could see upwards of 18″, maybe even one or two 20″ amounts in several 15-20″ pockets, if things really align well.
A NOTE ON SNOW TOTAL RANGES
Please remember that ranges are posted for a reason. Weather is highly variable. Accumulations don’t fall in town-sized shapes. This is the amorphous atmosphere we are talking about. While snow lovers want the high end of ranges, what I am basically saying is that changes are strong we will see at least a 6-10″ snowfall region-wise, with 15″ as top of the “low ranges”.
Just something to keep in mind, and remember, some sub-6″ amounts could manifest in the valley. Could some of us see 3″? Yep, I’ve seen it before. But with today’s system, I think we can expect more than that. I hope I’m correct in my thinking.
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PEAK STORM CONDITIONS TIMING BY REGION
For northern CT, WMass and CMass, the peak of the snow will fall between 2-11pm, with the highest wind reaching 25-45mph east and northeast wind gusts with potential brief blizzard conditions from 5pm until the dry slot punches through the region.
For southern VT and southwestern NH, it’s going to be flurries or light snow for a while this afternoon, then the peak for you should be like 5pm-2am.
Snowfall rates outside of the CT River Valley could reach 1-3″ per hour at times in the high terrain.
THUNDERSNOW
Yes, I said it, we could even get some thundersnow in isolated areas as the low level jet streak lifts north through the region, causing intense lift and convection.
Ok, that does it for now, the storm is now underway, please post your condition reports below, thank you!
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[OUR MONDAY NOR’EASTER HAS BEGUN… ALREADY SNOWING IN PARTS OF THE WMASS REGION WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS… WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE REGION… DOWNSLOPING/SHADOWING STILL EXPECTED TO LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE VALLEY… OVER A FOOT EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE WESTERN HILLTOWNS, BERKSHIRES, LITCHFIELDS, EASTERN TACONICS, AND WORCESTER COUNTY… BRUNT OF STORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING… LIGHT ICE AND INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NORTHWARD DRY SLOT PUNCH… #AndSnowItBegins… 6:55am Mon]
Good morning everybody, snow has already broken out across parts of the WMass region and northern CT with a coating to an inch or so already on the ground in spots.
Roads in these areas are already snow covered, as it has been FRIGID recently, and with temps currently in the teens to low 20s, snow is sticking readily, and will continue to, as highs will reach the mid to upper 20s today.
STORM SETUP
The primary low continues to weaken in the Ohio Valley, and now gives way to the secondary low (now, the new primary low, large and in charge), which has formed off of the DelMarVa Peninsula.
The surface coastal low will strengthen and drift northward to a point due east of the New Jersey coast, as the neutrally-tilting upper low centered over the junction of southeast OH, southwest PA and northern WV tracks east and slowly begins to crawl over the surface low like a drunken wrestler making his last pin move before passing out (clearly I need more coffee… or a therapist?), which will will vertically stack low pressure from the surface to mid levels, and slow the whole low show way down.
As the morning and afternoon wears on, the coastal low will develop a strong easterly low level jet streak which will create strong lift and produce heavy snow bands that will track northward from south of Long Island through southern New England and the WMass region.
A localized heavy snow band may pivot and dump heavier snows over the eastern Berkshires and western hilltowns, possibly as far north as the southern Greens, but where this sets up exactly is unknowable ahead of time. We will just have to watch where the best frontogenesis sets up (frontogenesis means “birth of a front” and refers to a squeezing of colder to milder temperatures a mile or two above our heads, creating a tight temperature gradient which forces air to rise, and results in heavy precip/snow).
Conversely, a persistent low/mid level easterly flow will likely cause some downsloping, or shadowing in the Pioneer Valley, and to a lesser extent, the Housatonic River Valley in the Berkshires and Walloomsac Valley in SW.VT.
Lesser snow amounts will result in these areas, and higher amounts in the Worcester hills and western hilltowns and eastern Berkshires down into the eastern Litchfields and high terrain of western Hartford County in CT.
Our storm will continue to meander south of Long Island tonight and another low will develop east of Nantucket and track up into the Gulf of Maine. This process will pull the heavy snow bands north and through WMass, SVT and SWNH between 10pm and 1am, shutting off the steady snow, and resulting in periods of scattered light snow showers, light sleet/freezing drizzle, and lulls at times into Tuesday morning.
TIMING OF IMPACTS
Steadier snow arrives between later morning and early afternoon from south to north, with periods of light to briefly moderate snow earlier in the morning with very light accumulations and low to calm wind.
Winds are expected to pick up out of the east and east-northeast this afternoon and gust 25-35mph, possibly reaching peak gusts of 40-45mph (more likely in the high terrain for those speeds) during the evening when whiteout and brief blizzard conditions are possible with blowing and drifting snow.
Snowfall rates should reach 1-2″ per hour later this afternoon and evening for many of us, though the valley may not reach these rate levels, we’ll have to see how it plays out.
The peak of the storm is essentially from 1pm-10pm tonight, and by midnight a dry slot is expected to punch north through the region between say 10pm and 1am, and drastically lower precip levels. The bulk of our snow will have accumulated by around midnight tonight.
Tuesday is a cloudy, lazy day with intermittent light snow showers, and a few additional coatings to an inch in spots, with others getting little to none.
AMOUNTS
Generally speaking, 6-10″ in the Pioneer Valley from Windsor Locks over the valley floor.
8-12″ is expected in the Housatonic River Valley and Walloomsac River Valley of the western Berkshires and southwestern VT.
This range is also expected in easternmost Hampshire County, as well as the Brattleboro/Keene region of southeast VT and southwest NH, though don’t be surprised if these areas come in at 6-10 with stronger downsloping, we’ll just have to see.
Otherwise, I still think 10-16″ looks good for the southern Greens, western hilltowns, eastern Berkshires, central MA, eastern Cheshire County NH, the high terrain of eastern Franklin and eastern Hampden County, and the rest of northern CT.
Finally, I still think that a few favored upslope snow jackpot zones could form in the east-facing hills and mountains in the southeastern Berkshires, western Hampden/Hampshire Counties (possibly western Franklin too) and the eastern Litchfields where some folks could see upwards of 18″, maybe even one or two 20″ amounts in several 15-20″ pockets, if things really align well.
A NOTE ON SNOW TOTAL RANGES
Please remember that ranges are posted for a reason. Weather is highly variable. Accumulations don’t fall in town-sized shapes. This is the amorphous atmosphere we are talking about. While snow lovers want the high end of ranges, what I am basically saying is that changes are strong we will see at least a 6-10″ snowfall region-wise, with 15″ as top of the “low ranges”.
Just something to keep in mind, and remember, some sub-6″ amounts could manifest in the valley. Could some of us see 3″? Yep, I’ve seen it before. But with today’s system, I think we can expect more than that. I hope I’m correct in my thinking.
SNOW CONSISTENCY/OUTAGES
I expect our snow will be more dry/powdery/fluffy than wet for much of the WMass, SVT, SWNH and northwest CT regions, with a bit wetter consistency in CMass and northeast CT. It is in those latter, more easterly areas that wetter snow may combine with higher wind gusts to produce some isolated power outages.
BUST POTENTIAL
I’ve already outlined this many times, but it’s possible that some sub-6″ amounts will be seen by Tuesday morning in the Pioneer Valley from Windsor Locks/BDL north through Greenfield. I think north of Greenfield, 6-10″ will cover it.
Whenever you have moisture-rich air being slammed westward into the high terrain for a prolonged period of time, combined with frontogenetical heavy snow bands, there is a chance you can bust high in localized areas, and if that were to happen, I would expect it to occur in the southeastern Berkshires, southwest hilltowns into northern/eastern Litchfield County where those 15-20″ amounts could be realized in some spots.
Ok, that does it! I will keep you updated all day, so stay tuned here, as I will be all over this storm with multiple reports throughout the day and night until it’s over, with a fresh report in the early morning of Tuesday as well.
Be aware and practice safety driving today if you have to go out and about, and remember driving will go downhill by early/mid afternoon and especially late afternoon through the evening as snow and wind picks up.
Have a great day!