Good evening everybody, we have a major snowstorm on the way. Even in areas like the CT River Valley, Housatonic River Valley, and the Walloomsac River Valley in southwest VT around Bennington, I find it very unlikely that we’ll see less than 6″ of snow in these areas, so travel is going to be an issue for everybody, region-wide. Some areas may reach up to 20″ of snow accumulation, so there will be a wide range around the region.
I am going to break it down into sections below, so you can scroll below to find accumulation ranges/amounts if that’s all you care about, find other things of interest, or read the whole enchilada.
I will be up super early tomorrow morning, so this will be the last report tonight and I will get to as many questions as I can before passing out so I can make sure I’ve got my ugly, I mean beauty rest before SnowDay, I mean Monday.
Ready? #ENGAGE
–Storm Setup
–Tonight Through Dawn
–Monday and Monday Night Conditions
–Downsloping/Shadowing
–Tuesday Conditions
–Snow Amounts and Wind
–Bust Potential
STORM SETUP
Our original/primary low is dying a slow death over Ohio and northern West Virginia this evening, as energy in the form of vorticity (i.e. spin in the atmosphere) and wind rounds the southern base of an upper level low that is basically stacked on top of the primary surface low.
Cold air damming is occurring way down the spine of the Appalachian Mountains in the eastern U.S., fed ravenously by cold high pressure that is drifting east into Quebec Province, Canada, north of Vermont.
As energy rounds the southern and southeastern flank of the upper low now located in the Midwest, a secondary surface low pressure center is deepening over eastern NC, and will stretch up to the Virginia coastline, and lift over the ocean by tomorrow morning. This secondary low will be helped to deepen by said mid level energy which will catch up to it, and slow it down as it meanders north off of the southern NJ coastline Monday morning.
In this classic “Miller B” nor’easter setup, the secondary low will take over the snow show, and continue to strengthen, generating lift in the atmosphere, and spread snowfall north into northern CT, WMass, CMass, SVT and SWNH.
The high to the north and low to the south will generate a strong easterly low level jet streak (i.e. faster moving river of air) which will co-locate for a time with the upper jet stream, allowing for fast rising air and heavy snow to develop in many parts of our region during the afternoon and evening, tapering off after midnight to more intermittent light snow and snow showers as drier mid-level air surges into the region, cutting off the heavy snowfall by sometime on Tuesday morning.
TONIGHT THROUGH DAWN
Lows tonight will dip into the low to mid teens as clouds increase. Winds should be light out of the north, or calm.
As our secondary storm takes over and lifts north along the east coast, to the east of NJ, a snow shield should develop and push an area of light to moderate snowfall north into northern CT, the southern Taconics and even the southern Berkshires and as far north as Springfield west and south by dawn (about 7am) and possibly before dawn.
So if you wake up tomorrow morning and it’s snowing, don’t be surprised. I do think many areas north of the Pike will only be seeing light snow showers, or flurries, or even nothing at 7am, but that will change as the morning wears on.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT IS PEAK OF THE STORM
Snow will advance northward through the morning and by early to mid afternoon, it should be snowing everywhere. Highs will reach the mid to upper 20s. East to east-northeast winds will gust 20-30mph at times during the afternoon.
Snow will fall moderately to heavily at times by late morning into mid afternoon, and continue into the evening as a likely heavy snow band oriented west to east (associated with the low level jet streak) lifts north the region.
Heavy snow banding is going to setup somewhere (perhaps the eastern Berkshires into western hilltowns?), and may even stall, and pivot as the low starts to track east, staying to the south of Long Island.
Snowfall rates will reach 1-3″ per hour in central MA into the high terrain of eastern Franklin County and eastern Hampden County (and perhaps even Pelham, eastern Belchertown and Ware), as well as in the western hilltowns, southern Greens, southwest NH, and the Berkshires down into much of northern CT.
Winds will pick up out of the east-northeast and northeast, gusting 25-40mph at times, with blizzard conditions possible briefly in the high terrain either side of the CT River in the early evening, between say 5-10pm. Visibility will be reduced, snow drifts will form, and travel will be ill-advised. Stay home if you can, and let the municipal plow crews do their work.
The steadiest/heaviest snow should fall through about 8-10pm, and lessen in intensity just before midnight as mid-level dry air punches south to north through the region, producing much lighter accumulations overnight into Tuesday morning.
DOWNSLOPING/SHADOWING
The Connecticut River Valley of WMass from Greenfield down to Windsor Locks and perhaps as far as Hartford may only see top rates of .25″ to 1″ per hour at times, due to the downsloping effect known as “shadowing”, where easterly flow pushes up against the Worcester hills, drops heavy snow, sinks into the valley, dries out and lightens the snow shield, and then climbs back up into the western hilltowns and Berkshires (and similarly down in northern CT, and in similar but less noticeable fashion in western Cheshire and easternmost Windham Counties in NH/VT).
TUESDAY CONDITIONS
Tuesday looks like we’ll be under the influence of the upper low as it meanders through, while our coastal low will have tracked near or just south of Nantucket and then will pivot up into the Gulf of Maine for more snow up that way.
Highs on Tuesday will reach the upper 20s to low 30s with periods of light snow and additional light snow accumulations possible, maybe another coating to 2″ for some folks, but I will refine that tomorrow evening. A few snow showers will be possible Tuesday night with lows in the low to mid 20s.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND
Generally, we will get a bit milder, see some mixed snow and rain showers by late week, and then record air looks to plunge into the region sometime next with two more snowstorm chances, so we have entered Winter, my friends.
Keep it tuned here, and as long as I draw breath, my mission is to get you the best info I can and answer as many questions as I can to help protect lift and property and keep you in the know, to the best of my ability. I’m not close to perfect, but I care about being helpful to you and yours.
SNOW AMOUNTS AND WIND
1. Taconics, western Berkshires, and southwest Bennington County:
I believe some downsloping will occur here, and I am going with 8-12″ assuming that takes place.
2. Southern Green Mountains of eastern Bennington and western Windham Counties, the eastern Berkshires, Litchfield County, and the western hilltowns:
I believe you will see 10-16″ of snow, and I believe there will be pockets of 15-20″ mixed into these regions
3. Eastern Windham County into western Cheshire County:
I believe you will see 8-12″ with some downsloping there
4. The Pioneer Valley of WMass from Greenfield down to Windsor Locks:
We get the snow shaft due to the most intense downsloping, and still think we will see 6-10″ in this region. A couple of 12″ amounts can’t be ruled out, but I think with persistent strong easterly flow a mile up, this will be the result.
5. Eastern Cheshire County, NH, Worcester County, eastern Franklin, eastern Hampden, eastern Hampshire, and the rest of northern CT:
I believe you will see 10-16″ in these areas, and more to the lower end of that range in eastern Hampshire county. Also, Monadnock region may see 15-20″ due to intense uplift in that area.
BUST POTENTIAL
I have seen some folks calling for 2-5″ in the CT River Valley, that’s how much they think downsloping will develop.
I have a hard time with the amount of precip being firehosed into this region tomorrow, that we will see that. But, there is a low chance for sub-6″ amounts in the valley floor.
Conversely, if downsloping doesn’t develop (which I doubt, I think it will develop), or develops with less intensity, amounts would go up to like 8-12″ in the valley floor.
The other unknown is how long the low near NJ stalls or meanders around, and how much it elongates towards Nantucket, possibly spinning off a “child” low center, and how that affects the precip shield. This may affect amounts, but the above is, at the moment, what I believe will happen in our near future based on everything I’m seeing and reading.
THE END
Anyway, that about does it folks. My fingers need a rest, and I need to get a newsletter out to that audience with this info, and get on Twitter to update there, with dinner after that.
Please, as always, let your people know about what’s on our doorstep, and I will see you here as early as possible tomorrow morning with an update as snow starts to set in.
Thanks so much for reading my book this evening, and I will stop back here over the next few hours to try and answer any questions to the best of my ability.
Have a great night!