Good morning everybody, tricky marginal/borderline forecast this morning for the high terrain.
We’re already above freezing along and south of the Pike down into northern CT, and in the lower terrain of the Berkshires.
The cold spot is eastern Franklin County and northwest Worcester County where it’s in the mid to upper 20s currently. The rest of us in the upper 20s to the freezing mark.
In fact, some fog was reported earlier in Orange with a temp of 26 degrees, so some icy spots possible there this early AM.
While highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 30s today, there is some concern for a high terrain wintry mix for a time.
ICING POTENTIAL
With a bit of a northeasterly flow this morning, drier air about a mile up, moister air closer to the surface, and some areas with temps at or below freezing in the higher terrain of the Berkshires, western hills, Taconics, Litchfields and SVT, we could see Freezing Drizzle later this morning in those areas, and a few slick spots can’t be ruled out.
The 925mb temp map (which shows what temps are forecast to be at about 2500-3000 feet above our heads) shows this cooling trend over the spine of the Berkshires (less so but still evident over northern Worcester County).
There is also a low chance that some of those areas could see brief onsets of snow or sleet, but personally I believe the most likely scenario is freezing drizzle to perhaps a bit of early onset freezing rain that could ice up a few high elevation areas before we change to plain rain as heavier precip moves in by late afternoon and into the evening.
We’ll have to watch for some southeasterly winds gusting to 25-30mph tonight as well, as a ripping low level jet will be hurling copious moisture up and into the Berkshires and Worcester hills about a mile or so above our heads. The jet will be pushing about 50-60 knots, but much of that wind speed is not expected to mix down to the surface. About .5″ to 1.5″ of rain is expected by tomorrow morning.
As you can see in the attached total rainfall map, the Berkshires and Worcester hills will see more rain than the valley because of this southeasterly flow, whereas the Pioneer Valley will be “shadowed” as subsidence (i.e. sinking air) forms, resulting in somewhat lighter precip will result with this kind of wind direction.
Rain should quit by or after midnight, with lows near freezing.
For Sunday, a partly sunny day will develop in the Pioneer Valley with highs in the low to mid 40s, whereas more clouds are expected in the Berkshires and SVT with a few rain/snow showers and highs in the upper 30s. Lows should bottom out near 30 degrees.
A seasonable week is coming up with plenty of sun over the Monday through Friday period. Highs will be in the 30s, lows in the teens and 20s, and fair weather will dominate.
Our next storm system looks to hit next weekend sometime, and I will keep you updated on it as it approaches.
Have a great day, and I will update later as our storm system moves into the region.
A very wet night tonight!