HEAVY WET SNOW WITH OUTAGES EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST BERKSHIRES, NORTHWESTERN HILLTOWNS, SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS, AND THE MONADNOCK REGION OF SOUTHWEST NH… WINTER STORM WATCHES NOW UP FOR CHESHIRE COUNTY NH… WINTER STORM WATCHES CONTINUE FOR THE BERKSHIRES, WESTERN HILLTOWNS AND ALL OF SOUTHERN VT… RAIN ARRIVES BY TOMORROW MORNING, LASTS THROUGH THE DAY… SNOW MIXES WITH RAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WITH SNOW LEVELS DESCENDING IN ELEVATION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY… SOME AREAS IN S.VT MAY SEE OVER A FOOT OF HEAVY WET SNOW… PREPARE FOR OUTAGES IF YOU LIVE ABOVE 1500 FEET IN ELEVATION AND BE HAPPY IF POWER STAYS ON… 7:05PM WED…
Good evening everybody, welcome to Spring in the WMass region!
As we continue to watch our late-season high-elevation winter storm continue to coalesce, I’m reminded of both the line from Scarface when Pacino says “just when I thought I was out, they pulled me back in!” as well as when the Balrog falls in Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of The Ring, and flicks its fire whip one last time and causes Gandalf The Gray to also fall, and follow it down into the abyss.
Too dramatic?
Welcome to me, sometimes. ;-)
The bottom line is that most us are going to see plenty of precipitation in the form of rain and snow from this system, and when any snow is melted down, we should see a widespread 1-2.5″ of liquid water equivalent, with some areas even seeing a little more than 2.5″.
STORM SETUP
An elongated, upper level low pressure system is spinning over the Great Lakes region, while another system is dropping south-southeast into the Canadian Provinces of Saskatchewan and eventually Manitoba, which will help cause our Great Lakes UL to tilt neutrally (i.e. north-south orientation) and then negatively (i.e. north-northwest to south-southeast orientation) through tomorrow and early Friday as the system itself tracks east-southeast toward the NYC metro region.
Meanwhile, a weak and developing surface-based storm system over western North Carolina will track east-northeast tonight toward the southern Mid-Atlantic coastline, as lows drop into the low 40s.
Then, our storm will be pulled more northerly tomorrow and tomorrow night as the incoming upper low interacts with and captures the surface low, sending it up the coast and toward the most beautiful and heavenly island of Martha’s Vineyard.
Before this storm phasing occurs, our surface low will strengthen on Thursday and produce a widespread rain shield that starts to arrive Thursday morning, and then overspreads the region by mid-day into the afternoon.
TIMING OF IMPACTS
As mentioned already, scattered showers will start to develop mostly after midnight, and especially by the early to mid morning hours across WMass, western and central CT, eastern NY, and southern VT, possibly holding off until late morning or so for CMass, northeast CT and southwest NH.
Highs will reach the low to mid 40s or so, which is some 25 degrees cooler than today!
Lows will be in the low to mid 30s with highs Friday in the mid 30s to low 40s.
As our upper low approaches and our surface low develops to our south, and the two start to phase on Thursday later afternoon and evening, colder air will be produced via dynamic cooling (i.e. the supply of colder air aloft descends towards the surface both due to the upper low moving into the region, and heavier precipitation developing which helps drag it down to the surface).
This will cause rain to mix with and change to snow in the southern Greens of eastern Bennington and western Windham Counties in S.VT first, probably sometime between 5-9pm, the way it looks now.
This process of mixing and changing to snow will continue to lower in elevation, and also spread south into the northern Berkshires, and northwestern hilltowns of WMass (western Franklin & Hampshire Counties) as well as the Monadnock Region of southwest NH through midnight and into the early pre-dawn hours.
Then this process will continue with rain changing to snow after midnight and into the early to mid-morning hours of Friday in all of WMass (except for possibly the Springfield Metro region south and east down into norther-central CT, which may stay all rain, or mix with snow, but not accumulate).
In addition, much of Worcester County north of the Pike should transition to snow, and most of the Berkshires (except perhaps the lower Housatonic River Valley including Great Barrington which may only see some slushy coatings and mixed rain/snow), the western hilltowns including western Hampden County, and northern Litchfield Hills.
Snow and rain will continue through Friday morning, and then lighten in intensity, with the exception of northeasternmost CT, CMass and eastern Cheshire County as the storm will be slowing down somewhere in southeast MA before pulling east and away Friday night.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
–A coating to 2″ is expected in much of the Pioneer Valley north, of Springfield, including eastern Hampden County, central and eastern Hampshire County, central Franklin County, southern Worcester County, as well as in some areas in Tolland County CT, Windham County Ct, and northern Litchfield County
–2 to 5″ is expected in southern, central and northwestern Berkshire County and the adjacent Taconics, as well as in western Hampden County hilltowns, the high terrain of eastern Franklin County and the high terrain of northern Worcester County (especially along and north of the Rt. 2 corridor), as well as in the Brattleboro to Keene stretch of easternmost Windham County VT and westernmost Cheshire County NH
–5 to 10″ is expected in the northeastern Berkshires, as well as the northwestern hilltowns of WMass (western Franklin and western Hampshire Counties) as well as southern VT and the Monadnock Region of eastern Cheshire County NH
–Isolated 10 to 15″ jackpot amounts are possible in the southern Green Mountains of VT
–The Springfield to Hartford stretch, including southern halves of Tolland and Windham Counties may see no accumulation at all with just rain or rain and snow mix
POWER OUTAGES AND TRAVEL IMPACTS
Southern VT, southwest NH, the northern Berkshires, the western hilltowns (especially the northwestern ones) and northernmost Worcester County high terrain areas have the best chance of seeing outages due to heavy wet snow accumulating and pulling down tree limbs and power lines.
Scattered outages are expected in these areas as of now, and preparation should be made in anticipation of this potential.
BUST POTENTIAL
Any late-season winter storm always carries bust potential with it, and I will enumerate some of the key points below that could cause less snow to accumulate:
1. How much cold air does the upper low supply, and will it be optimally coincident with the heaviest precip overnight Thursday into Friday morning when it temps are always at their coolest anyway?
2. Where will the surface low track, both before phase with the upper low, and especially afterward? Does it come more north and allow milder air, pushing snow amounts down, and accumulating snow further north and west?
3. How strong does the surface low get before being captured by the upper low, becoming stacked, which will cause it slow down?
Again, these dynamic cooling events that create cold air “on the fly” always carry more bust potential risk vs. events that are preceded by a cold dome of Arctic air, so I will keep you updated tomorrow morning, during the early afternoon and in the evening with reports tomorrow as our storm sets in, so be sure to check back with me, even if I don’t show in your feed!
WEEKEND IMPROVEMENTS
Our rain and snow ends Friday night, and our weekend looks super sweet and seasonable, with partly sunny skies and highs near 50º on Saturday, and near 55º on Sunday.
We’ll deal with next week after this storm, but it looks milder overall.
Have a great night and stay tuned for updates all through tomorrow and Friday regarding our late-season winter storm!
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[WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE BERKSHIRES, WESTERN HILLTOWNS, AND ALL OF SOUTHERN VT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON… A SOAKING RAINFALL FOR LOWER ELEVATION AREAS IS ON THE WAY WITH BETWEEN 1-2″ OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE… WET SNOW MAY AMOUNT TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AND UP TO A FOOT POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF EASTERN BENNINGTON AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES IN SVT… POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE… 7:10AM WED]
Good morning everybody, this is going to be a bulleted list form report today, and I will provide a more comprehensive report this evening with the latest information on our developing storm.
To be sure, this is a high-elevation event, and the valley are not expected to get much if any accumulating snowfall given that today is going to be near 70º for highs, which means it’s understatement to say that no cold air will be in place before the storm arrives – it will have to bring in fresh cold air supply, and this is ALWAYS poses a risk for late-season snow forecasts.
So, check back in with me this evening!
SUMMARY
–A few morning showers in the northern Berkshires and SVT will be on the wane today as higher pressures build in as the day wears on
–Temps currently in the 40s to low 50s will rise into the 65-70º range under partly sunny skies today… get out and enjoy it!
–An upper level low will continue to track east-southeast out of the Great Lakes and towards our region tonight
–This upper level system is destined to eventually merge with a juicy southern stream low center that will be pushing east-northeast through the Tennessee Valley today and headed toward the Mid-Atlantic coastline
–As the upper low approaches, some scattered rain showers develop tonight and overnight in our region, with lows bottoming out in the low 40s
–For Thursday, while northeast CT, CMass and eastern parts of southwest NH *mostly* avoid shower activity, WMass, SVT, the Taconics and northwest CT will see shower activity on the increase
–Highs will be some 20+ degrees cooler than today, only in the 40s!
–Showers will spread east and north with time as the upper low and surface low centers start to interact with each other and head for the New Jersey coastline
–Thursday night will see rain pick up in intensity, and it will fall moderately to heavily at times with lows in the low to mid 30s
–Rain will mix with and change to snow above 1500 feet (and possibly between 1000-1500 feet, as well) Thursday evening and especially after midnight as the upper low brings in colder air
–In the highest elevations, a major snowstorm may play out in areas like westernmost Franklin County, the northeastern Berkshires, the Monadnock Region of southwest NH, and the spine of the southern Greens where 4-8″ of snow could fall with some isolated areas getting over 10″!
–More like 1-4″ would fall in the rest of terrained-portions of southwest NH, northern Worcester County, eastern Franklin County hilltowns, and the western hilltowns, Taconics, and Litchfield Hills.
–Rainfall amounts should easily come in between 1-2″ as a bit of a firehose sets up with a low level easterly jet off the ocean as our merged/stacked low centers meander about the Cape and the Islands
–Rain and snow quits by Friday evening, highs on Friday are only in the mid 30s to low 40s, with lows in the 30s
–The weekend improves with partly sunny skies both days and highs near 50º on Saturday, and in the 50s on Sunday
I will provide more details this evening, in the meantime, get outside this afternoon and enjoy the warmth, as Winter is going to provide a bit of a slap as we’re reminded that we’re never out of the snowy woods until mid May or so in the southern New England high terrain.
Have a great day!