WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES CONTINUE… RAIN IS ALREADY CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VT AND PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES AND WESTERN HILLTOWNS, ESPECIALLY ABOVE 1500 FEET… COLDER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE REGION AT THE 8PM HOUR AND WILL CONTINUE… RAIN MIXES WITH SNOW IN THE VALLEYS AND CHANGES TO SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY ABOVE 1000 FEET OVERNIGHT… SNOW WILL FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES AND THE PLOWS WILL NEED TO COME OUT FOR SOME… PLEASE POST CONDITION REPORTS AND PRECIP TYPES AND YOUR TOWN TONIGHT UNDER THIS EVENING POST… 8:10am THURS…

Good evening everybody, our storm is progressing right along. Temps have already plummeted into the low to mid 30s in southern VT (though the valley area of Bennington is still in the low 40s!).

We even have 30s showing up in the Berkshires and western hilltowns, and down into the Litchfields, as well as southern NH and northern Worcester County, with 40s in the Pioneer Valley still and plenty of rainfall.

We have had a nice soaking today, with many areas between .5-1.5″ of rainfall already, with plenty more to go.

It looks like a widespread 1.25″ to 2.75″ or so of rainfall/liquid water equivalent through tomorrow evening.

For tonight, rain will be mixing with and changing to snow above 1000 feet, sooner if you are higher in elevation.

By midnight, areas of the northern Berkshires, southern VT, western Franklin/Hampshire Counties, the Monadnock Region in southwest NH and northern Worcester County will be changin to snow, and it could fall heavily at times with an inch per hour of heavy wet snow possible.

Travel will become problematic for snowy high terrain locations.

Some power outages will develop by Friday morning, as a number of towns should have areas that see over half a foot, which is enough accumulation of heavy wet snow to pull wires and tree limbs down.

Meanwhile, in the valley from Greenfield south to Hartford we should see mostly rain or rain mixing with snow at times. Greenfield is tricky, as even there it may go to all snow by or just after midnight.

By Friday morning, many of us should be snowing, except for maybe a mix in the Springfield metro area south to Hartford, as well as the southern Housatonic Valley (i.e. Great Barrington), and even Bennington which sits in the Walloomsac Valley.

Assuming we see marginal temps tomorrow morning (near/just above freezing) we should see valley areas waffling between periods of snow, mixed snow/rain and rain, especially south of Northampton.

The heaviest precip should last well into the morning, and then taper in the afternoon, except for perhaps east of I-91 in CMass, and northeast CT and southwest NH.

Snow falling during the daylight hours under 1000 feet should stop accumulating if it had been, especially by mid to late morning, with maybe some additional light accumulations in the high terrain above 1000 feet beore it tapers.

This afternoon/evening period is when easternmost Hampden County, southwest Worcester County down into northeast CT could see additional accumulations, mostly on grassy surfaces, if the phased storm stalls in the “right place” for long enough, and if it can precipate heavily enough.

We just don’t know exactly how the upper low now tracking through southwest NY and destined for the southern New England coast will interact with the surface low lifting northeast toward Buzzard’s Bay and southeast MA, and I will update in the morning.

LATEST SNOW AMOUNT THOUGHTS
10-15″
–Southern Green Mountains of southern VT in the high terrain above 2000 feet

5-10″
–Southern VT between 1000-2000 feet
–Northeastern Berkshires
–Western Hampshire County hilltowns
–Western Franklin County hilltowns
–The Monadnock Region and high terrain in eastern Cheshire County of SW.NH
–Northern Worcester County along and north of the Rt. 2 corridor, especially highest peaks

2-5″
–Eastern Windham County VT (Brattleboro) into western Cheshire County NH (Keene)
–The northwestern Berkshires
–The northern Taconics of E.NY
–Eastern Franklin County highlands near/above 1000 feet
–Central Worcester County north into the lower terrain areas of northern Worcester County
–Southwestern Worcester County
–Eastern Hampden County high terrain from Palmer/Monson east
–Northern Litchfield County high terrain
–Northwest Hartford County
–Northern Tolland and Windham Counties in NE.CT

C-2″
–Southern Berkshires in the Housatonic Valley
–Southern Litchfield County
–Pioneer Valley from Greenfield south to Hartford (though Greenfield north to Brattleboro could get into the 2-5″ zone)
–Southeastern Worcester County
–Southern halves of the 4 northern CT counties
–Some of these areas may just see rain/snow mix, or snow that doesn’t accumulate much, if at all

We should still see some rain and snow showers into Friday evening, especially in CMass before the whole thing winds down over night.

Please let me know if you are seeing any snow or rainfall where you are, and please indicate your town.

Also, some of you had wanted to donate to support my work during the Member Drive, but weren’t able to do so in time.

Just click below if you’d like to do that this evening if you’d like the free membership gifts, I can include you this year for sure:

I will post an update on our late-season elevation winter storm first thing in the morning, have a great night!
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WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES NOW HOISTED FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN HAMPSHIRE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES… PREVIOUS WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE… ONE THING IS FOR SURE, SOMEONE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SNOW, SOME FOLKS WILL HAVE OUTAGES, AND THE DROUGHT THAT WAS STARTING TO SET IN WILL BE MITIGATED WITH VIGOR… 2:30PM THURS…

Folks, we have a very tricky weather setup that is underway over the next 30 hours or so, and I will do my best to update you this afternoon.

Rain has expanded and continues to overspread the region and pick up in intensity from southwest to northeast.

In fact, when all is said and done (and when you melt down any accumulated snow) anywhere from 1.5 to 3″ or liquid water equivalent looks like it will fall across the region by Friday evening, which is really good news as it relates the dry conditions we’ve been experiencing recently.

As for our setup, we New England is sandwiched between two upper level low pressure centers: the first is over the Lake Erie area and tracking toward NYC Metro, while the second is south of Newfoundland, and eerily enough, positioned about where the Titanic went down 109 years ago today, so that’s kinda weird!

The upper low near Lake Erie will continue to push moisture, vorticity (i.e. atmospheric spin which helps air rise) and colder air aloft into the southern New England region today and tonight into Friday.

With support from the upper level jet aiding in lifting air from the surface, as well as a low level easterly jet that will push moisture from the Atlantic westward into the WMass region, we’re getting (fire)hosed from all sides – hence the 1.5-3″ of precip expected into Friday night!

Assuming the surface low center tracks to this position near the Vineyard, the heaviest elevation snowfall will occur over southern VT, the Monadnock Region, northern Worcester County, the northwestern hilltowns of WMass, and the northern Berkshires/Taconics

As the upper low and surface low phase together, precipitation will be invigorated over our region, and colder air will start to descend in elevation, and cause rain to mix with and change to snow between 8pm-Midnight over the southern Greens in VT, the northern Berkshires (especially northeastern towns like Savory and Florida), and the northwestern hilltowns of WMass.

This will occur over eastern Cheshire County and the Monadnock Region, as well as over the high peaks of the northern Worcester Highlands.

After midnight, we should be mixing with and/or changing to snow, which will fall heavily at times, and overspread much of the WMass region into central MA, and the high terrain of northern CT.

By Friday morning, we’ll have more snow than rain over the WMass region, and depending on exact track and strength of the newly-phased storm system, we may see a flip back to rain in valley areas, or possibly accumulating snow during the morning commute.

Not only that, but if the storm moves slowly enough, we could see a prolonged mix of rain and snow or even just snow over CMass, northeast CT and southwest NH east of I-91 well into Friday afternoon, ending sometime in the evening, as per the chart below. This could result in additional snow accumulations in the high terrain.

ACCUMULATIONS AND OUTAGE POTENTIALS
–Snow will fall heavily at times, and will be wet, causing scattered outages mostly in the SVT, Monadnock, northern Berkshires and northwest hilltown sub-regions
–Those areas should see 5-10″ of snow, with possibly 10-15″ in the high peaks of the southern Greens
–2-5″ are possible in the northern Worcester highlands, the Brattleboro and Keene stretch, eastern Franklin County highlands, eastern Hampden County highlands down into Tolland County CT and Windham County CT, the southern Berkshires, northern Litchfields, Taconics, western Hampden County, northwestern Hartford County, and the southern Berkshires
–C-2″ elsewhere in the central and southern Pioneer Valley, the southern Housatonic River Valley near Great Barrington, with some folks in the Springfield/Hartford Metro and parts of northern CT getting nothing or some slush

BUST POTENTIAL
I will be honest and say this storm has BP written all over it.

In fact, upper and surface low centers that have to merge, strengthen, and track just right to deliver Spring snowfall are rife with bust potential.

And, it could go either way (usually it’s much more likely to go wrong in one direction, not both).

However, I do think it’s more likely that the totals above could go a bit lower, with this thing becoming totally elevation dependent.

However, if forces align PERFECTLY (which does happen, sometimes) we could even see 2-5″ in the Pioneer Valley down into Springfield and points south and east, with totals exceeding 18″ up in southern VT, with over a foot in the northern Berkshires, northwest hilltowns, and even in parts of northern Worcester County up towards Mt. Monadnock.

It’s possible, but quite unlikely that this over-performance scenario plays out.

But for now, those are just bust POTENTIALS, and I’m going with what I expect in my report above this Bust Potential section of my post.

I will update again this evening, enjoy the rest of your afternoon…
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WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY, SOUTHERN VT EXCEPT FOR EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY (WHICH IS NOW UNDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY), THE NORTHWESTERN HILLTOWNS OF WMASS (W.HAMPSHIRE/W.FRANKLIN), AND CHESHIRE COUNTY NH… WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY, WESTERN HAMPDEN COUNTY, CENTRAL/EASTERN HAMPSHIRE AND CENTRAL/EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES… WINTER STORM WATCH UP FOR NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY AS HEAVIER SNOWS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HIGHLANDS… RAIN TODAY, RAIN MIXES WITH AND/OR CHANGES TO SNOW OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON ELEVATION AND LATITUDE… 7:15am THURS…

Good morning everybody, I’ve been poring over the latest information, and wanted to update you this morning as to where we’re at with our incoming late-season high-elevation winter storm for some, and a soaking rainstorm for others.

Either way, this storm will be good news for the water table and a drought that was starting to set into the region.

I’ll list out the points below, and I will likely post an early afternoon update, and then a more comprehensive evening report. Remember, you can always scroll down on my page to see last night’s report, if you wish.

SUMMARY
–Rain is developing over the Berkshires, the southwestern hilltowns, and northwest CT this morning
–This will continue to increase in coverage and spread slowly from southwest to northeast with time, reaching CMass by the early afternoon
–Highs will reach the mid to upper 40s today with east winds gusting by afternoon up to 25mph at times
–By afternoon and evening, it will be raining moderately to heavily at times
–As our upper low tracks east-southeast into NY state, colder air will overspread our region aloft, steepening the temperature gradient from surface to sky (a/k/a the “lapse rate”), and aligning with the jet stream to produce atmospheric lift and heavier precipitation
–This will in turn take that colder air and drag it to the surface via dynamic cooling, and mix the rain with snow during the early evening in the southern Greens of VT, and then into the northeast Berkshires and northwestern hilltowns of WMass before midnight tonight
–Snow will fall heavily at times overnight, and will be wet, clinging to everything where we change to snow
–A change to snow by midnight is also anticipated for much of southwest NH (eastern two-thirds), portions of northern Worcester County, which may also spread into the highest peaks of eastern Franklin County
–The rest of us in the lower terrain of the Pioneer Valley, southern Housatonic Valley in the southern Berks, and much of northern CT and southern Worcester County should be raining or seeing a mix with snow by or just after midnight
–Lows will dip into the low to mid 30s
–Then many of us will mix with or even change to snow by very early Friday morning, while moderate to heavy snow continues in the high terrain
–Any change to snow in the Springfield metro could flip back to rain by mid to late Friday morning
–There is a low chance that the storm really blows up near/east of Nantucket, which could produce more snowfall east of I-91 in eastern Hampden County, northeast CT and CMass, but that remains to be seen
–Regardless, I do think the high terrain of easternmost Hampden County east of Palmer could push some folks there into a 2-5″ accumulation, extending down into northern Tolland County
–Highs will only be in the mid to upper 30s Friday
–Any rain or snow quits by midnight Friday night
–Lows will be in the mid 30s
–The weekend now looks cloudier, and a bit cooler, with some showers possible late Sunday
–Milder and fair early next week, with some rain possible by Wednesday

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
–A coating to 2″ is expected in much of the Pioneer Valley north, of Springfield, including eastern Hampden County, central and eastern Hampshire County, central Franklin County, southern Worcester County, as well as in some areas in Tolland County CT, Windham County Ct, and northern Litchfield County
–2 to 5″ is expected in southern, central and northern Berkshire County and the adjacent Taconics, as well as in western Hampden County hilltowns, the high terrain of eastern Franklin County and the high terrain of northern Worcester County (especially along and north of the Rt. 2 corridor), as well as in the Brattleboro to Keene stretch of easternmost Windham County VT and westernmost Cheshire County NH
–PLEASE NOTE: I am concerned that portions of the northern Worcester County highlands could get into this 5-10″ range if the storm tracks further south and east, to be monitored…
–5 to 10″ is expected in the northern Berkshires (near 5″ northwest Berks, near 10″ northeast Berks), as well as the northwestern hilltowns of WMass (western Franklin and western Hampshire Counties) as well as southern VT and the Monadnock Region of eastern Cheshire County NH
–Isolated areas of 10 to 15″ jackpot amounts are possible in the southern Green Mountains of VT
–The Springfield to Hartford stretch, including southern halves of Tolland and Windham Counties may see no accumulation at all with just rain or rain and snow mix, or just some slushy coatings on grassy surfaces

Ok folks, that does it for this morning, I will be getting my weekly newsletter out by noon today and produce a report by early afternoon, and then again with a more comprehensive, updated report this evening, so look out for those.

Have a great day, and if you live in the 5-10″ or even 10-15″ zones, prepare for power outages, as any wet snow accumulations of 5″ or more can bring down limbs and take down lines.

Have a great day!