Good evening everybody, the wind has persisted for longer than expected, due in part to the powerful cyclone producing blizzard conditions in southeastern Newfoundland today, it was a sight to behold! Very powerful weather east of here.
For us, all that Canadian cold was dragged down and is now sitting on us like thick cold molasses, and we can expect deep winter cold to last through Wednesday night at least.
For folks who just want to know how much snow we’re getting, you can scroll to that section below, otherwise, I offer my discussion immediately following this ‘graph.
DISCUSSION
Tomorrow’s storm setup is interesting, and there are some things going against it to produce all snow for most of us north of the Pike:
1. High pressure is actually going to be positioned southeast of us
2. Southerly flow will move in from the southwest
3. The original/parent low pressure center will pass way northwest, and no secondary low will develop south of Long Island holding the cold in
However, two things are going in our favor, and as of now, look to trump those three aforementioned factors:
1. Deep cold will already be established and in place, making it very hard to dislodge northward
2. The frontal boundary and associated storm will be moving east quickly, and we’ll only have a 6-9 hour window of precipitation
Aside from a mix with or change to rain later on during Saturday night for areas east of the CT River and south of the Pike, there is one other factor that is hard to determine ahead of time, that being the consistency and strength of the snow shield.
For now, I believe that it will strong enough to produce a good thump of snow, but there are some signals showing less liquid water equivalent reaching the ground.
Having nerded out all over you (my apologies), my thoughts on temps, timing and totals are below:
TEMPS AND TIMING:
Lows tonight will plummet to the single digits below zero, with some single digits above zero south of the Pike
Clouds will increase and lower during the day, with some patchy sun, or more likely milky sun filtering through high clouds early.
Highs will reach the low to mid 20s and sort of hover there until after midnight.
Snow will reach the surface between 2-4pm from west to east, and that maybe an hour too fast (meaning don’t be surprised if it’s more like 3-5pm start).
Snow will stick to surfaces almost immediately, and will fall moderately to heavily at times during the night, with 1″ per hour snowfall rates in some spots.
Rain will likely mix into some areas in the northeastern half of CT into southern Worcester County and possibly even into central/eastern Hampden County before midnight, and before the precip shield lightens up and quits.
By Sunday morning at sunrise, only a few snow showers over the Berkshires and SVT should linger from upslope flow.
SNOW TOTALS
–3-7″ looks likely for north-central and northeast CT (including southern Litchfield County), as well as central/eastern Hampshire County, central/eastern Hampden County, and southern Worcester County.
–5-9″ looks likely for the northern Litchfields, the Taconics, the Berkshires, SVT, the western hilltowns, Franklin County, SWNH, and northern Worcester County
–A few 10+” spots in the southern Green Mountains in eastern Bennington or western Windham Counties is certainly possible.
Ok, that does it for tonight folks, we know it’s going to get cold Sunday night with more blustery conditions lasting into Monday with cold winter conditions Monday through Wednesday (albeit it dry during the period with plenty of sunshine).
I will update in the morning, but that’s the way it looks from Nut Central for now.
Have a great evening, no problems whatsoever tonight, enjoy it!
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WINTER STORM WATCHES HOISTED REGION-WIDE… A THUMP OF SNOW IS ON THE WAY FOR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE MIDNIGHT… SATURDAY NIGHT PLANS LOOK TO BE IMPACTED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL… WINDS THIS MORNING DIE DOWN DURING THIS AFTERNOON, BITTERLY COLD TONIGHT… COLD FOLLOWS OUR STORM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK… (7:05am Friday, 1/17/2020)
Good morning everybody, the Watches have been hoisted, hoisted I say!
As I grow deeper into my middle age, I believe more and more that in a past life I was the lighthouse keeper at Gay Head on Martha’s Vineyard, hoisting storm warning flags, keeping watch over Vineyard Sound, and incanting at the whipping ocean winds as storms raged through southern New England back in the day.
I bet I was in high heaven (and probably crusty, salty, and battle-hardened, too).
But I digress, as I do… Get with the program, Dave!
Will do. #Giddyup
COLD AND BLUSTERY TODAY
–Winds continue to gust out of the northwest 25-40mph at times
–This is due to strong high pressure pressing in from the east, and powerful low pressure southwest of Newfoundland that just blew up over the ocean
–These winds will keep wind chills in the single digits above zero, and below zero at times today, especially the first half of the day
–Highs will only reach the upper teens to low 20s, with super dry air advecting in
–At least it will be mostly sunny, but it won’t help much other than your mood
–For tonight, winds abate, super dry air sets in place, mostly clear skies continue, and temps will just crash due to strong radiational cooling
–Expect lows in the single digits below zero in many spots, and a few single digits above zero
–With high pressure to our northeast, this will provide an excellent over running surface for warm, moist air to slam into Saturday afternoon and produce widespread moderate to at times, heavy snowfall
–Saturday will start off cold and dry with a few breaks of sun, but clouds will quickly increase in the morning as the warm front approaches
–By early afternoon it will be snowing overhead but not reaching the ground, but eventually the column will saturate, and snow should start flying around 2-3pm in the Berkshires and CT/MA/VT-NY border region, then pressing into the rest of the WMass region through 4pm or so
–Snow will stick almost immediately with a VERY cold ground, so driving conditions will go downhill fast
–Snow will fall steadiest and heaviest after sunset and before midnight, with some rates at one inch per hour at times
–Warmer air will try to work north up to the level of the MA pike, but the antecedent air mass is so deeply cold, and with high pressure to the northeast, I don’t know if it will even make it to the level of the Pike, but it might
–Regardless, the heaviest precip should move through earlier, and fall as snow, with a mix of ice/rain possible in northern CT as the system is pulling away
–It looks like widespread 4-8″ of snow will fall, a solid moderate snowstorm, lower amounts of the range to the south in northern CT, higher amounts north
–A few 10″ amounts are possible in SVT where snow to melted water equivalent ratios will be higher
–By Sunday morning, it’s gone, with partly sunny skies developing in the valley, and continued scattered snow showers in the Taconics, Berkshires, Litchfields, southern Greens and western hilltowns, with more clouds there
–Highs will be in the low to mid 30s tomorrow, with lows dropping into the teens
–Cold, dry and fair weather arrives for much of next week with highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits generally speaking, but I will dial those specifics in as we get closer. Just know we will see a lot of sunshine and cold temperatures
Winter returns! Have a great day, and I will update you again tonight and tomorrow morning, and throughout the upcoming winter storm!