Good morning everybody, in poring over all the data since last night, it looks like we’re still on track for a moderate, plowable snowfall this evening and tonight across the region, a bit less to the south, and a bit more to the north where better snow-to-liquid water ratios will be found, with a more powdery snow.
The jackpot looks to be SVT, northern Berkshires, and western Franklin County.
Clouds continue to thicken and lower this morning. Temps will struggle out of the singles and low teens this morning and then crest above the 20 degree mark region-wide into the low 20s, though SVT/SWNH may only reach the upper teens before the snow starts falling.
This is an exceptionally dry and cold air mass at the surface this morning.
SNOW ONSET/TIMING
When snow starts falling (onset time is about 2pm in the Berkshires and NW CT, 3pm in the Pioneer Valley, norther-central CT and SVT, 4pm in northeast CT, SWNH and CMass, give or take), it will have already been snowing above our heads (a/k/a “virga”) for an hour or two, and this whole process will produce what is called “wet bulbing” which produces cooling/lowering temps at the surface via that initial evaporation of snow before it reaches the ground.
I bring this up because it will help keep the colder air in longer, likely keeping us all snow from the MA/CT border northward, though some rain could mix in up to the MassPike from Westfield, MA points east to Worcester, MA.
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES
With a solid low level jet moving overhead around early evening, blowing up to 60-65mph, this will aid in lifting the air and help to produce moderate to heavy snow bands, which could reach 1″ per hour in spots, maybe even 1.5″ per hour or even 2″ per hour for a brief time up in the northern Berkshires, northwestern hilltowns of Hampshire and Franklin County and SVT.
DRY SLOT AND MIXED LIGHT PRECIP LATE
Sometime between 10pm-1am, a dry slot will be punching west to east into and through the WMass region and cutting off much of the accumulating snowfall.
In addition, this it the most likely time any rain will mix in to north-central and northeast CT up into southern Hampden and southern Worcester Counties.
Freezing drizzle will be possible where precip lulls or quits north of the Pike, as well as some lighter snow showers.
Temps will start rising late tonight and crest into the 30s tomorrow, though fresh snow pack may make it hard for some folks to get too much above the freezing mark.
SNOW TOTALS
I still think 3-7″ in northern CT, Hampden County and southern Worcester County should be on the ground when the snow stops late tonight.
I still think 5-9″ will fall in Hampshire County, Franklin County, the western hilltowns, the Berkshires, the Taconics, SVT and SWNH.
Lower amounts in these ranges would result if the dry slot becomes more pronounced, possibly arriving a bit sooner than expected. Also, if the low level jet doesn’t develop quite as much as expected, the lower ends of those ranges could result, with even a few 2″ amounts in spots (likely relegated to northern CT).
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT
Please remember that once the snow starts falling, it will be landing on a VERY cold surface, and will likely not only start accumulating quickly, but we could from light snow to moderate/heavy snow within 30-60 minutes of it starting, depending on your location, so driving conditions may go downhill quickly.
TOMORROW AND BEYOND
Colder air arrives Sunday night through Wednesday, but it will dry and mostly sunny, then we should moderate a bit by late next week, and another storm is possible by next weekend.
Ok, that does it for now, I will update again in the early afternoon, and be with you all evening long as the storm arrives and impacts the area.
Please add your condition reports this afternoon and tonight as the snow gets underway!
Have a great day!