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7:10AM-MON: MAJOR RAINY NOR’EASTER ON THE WAY WITH FLOOD WATCHES HOISTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE BERKSHIRES AND WEST COUNTY… RAIN LULLS OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE, FOG, AND LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY AND THIS EVENING… NEW COASTAL LOW UNDERGOES BOMBOGENESIS OFF THE VA COAST TONIGHT, RAIN AND WIND TOMORROW, PEAK TOMORROW NIGHT, OUTAGES POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60MPH POSSIBLE… MY 2022 WEATHER WALL CALENDAR IS ON SALE NOW (CLICK SECURE LINK TO ORDER)…
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Good morning everybody, the first half of this week is going to be storming around here.
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DISCUSSION:
Good morning peeps, I can’t remember the last time we had a true Autumn rainy Nor’easter in our neck of the woods. It’s at least been several years at this point. Regardless, we’ve got one on the way for tomorrow, tomorrow night, and the first part of Wednesday, so let’s jump into the details, sectioned out below for your scrolling pleasure.
TIMING
–Warm frontal rains this morning quit by mid to late morning
–Patchy fog, drizzle, and a few light showers thereafter until around midnight tonight
–Steadier and eventually heavier rains move back in Tuesday morning
–Storm peaks Tuesday afternoon and night into the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday morning
–Heavy rain and strong wind gusts to 60mph possible, though 30-50mph gusts more probable at this point
–Storm winds down by Wednesday later morning into the afternoon
TODAY/THIS EVENING
Currently this morning, we are dealing with stratiform rainfall that developed northeast of a warm front positioned to our southwest.
This will move through west to east and be out of here by mid morning or so, certainly by noon, leaving us with patchy drizzle, occasional light showers, and patchy fog.
It will be a raw day with highs only in the upper 40s to low 50s to start our new week.
For this evening, no snow is coming, so don’t worry, be happy!
Lows will be well within the 40s, and showers will start to pick up after sunset from south to north, first in northern CT, then in WMass, CMass and the Taconics, with steadier rains moving back in by midnight or so as our newly-formed coastal low gets drawn north up the coast by an upper level system to our west.
STORM SETUP
This is a pretty classic Miller B storm setup, which simply means that we’ll have a primary, already-formed low center that pushes into western PA and the Lake Erie region and decays.
The dying storm will have pushed cooler air closer to the U.S. east coast, which sets up a temperature gradient with warmer air on the coast and offshore, the clash of which will help develop a secondary low east of VA/NC overnight tonight, and on Tuesday.
At the same time, an upper level low in the Great Lakes region will “go negative”, taking on a northwest-to-southeast orientation in its structure, which will act as a fulcrum to capture the surface low, as if to say “not so fast, buddy” and instead of letting it pass out to sea harmlessly, will instead guide it northward toward Long Island, NY or Block Island RI on Tuesday.
We’ll also have high pressure in southeast Canada in a classic nor’easter setup – strong cool/cold high to the north, warmer developing, strengthening coastal low to the south.
The pressure and temperature gradients created by this high/low combo will induce bombogenesis in the new surface low, dropping its central pressure by 24 millibars or more to a sub-980 millibar low by Tuesday night (a VERY strong low), which will cause heavy rainfall and strong damaging wind, especially along the coast line, but could cause some outages here, too.
RAINFALL
With respect to the Tuesday nor’easter, as I had mentioned, we’ll get increasing and heavier showers to push back into the region south to north around or after midnight tonight.
It’s uncertain exactly how this storm will track, as once it forms and is drawn north on Tuesday, its interaction with the upper low can’t be known ahead of time.
It may get drawn toward The Benchmark, and then overall west to east flow may kick it out of here, or it may get drawn more northwest toward Long Island and do a loop and stick around longer, which happens with these strong, mature mid-latitude cyclones in the northeastern U.S.
The satellite shots are going to be glorious, I can tell you that!
Regardless, I think a general 1.5-5″ of rainfall by Wednesday night looks probable at this point in time.
As mentioned, Flood Watches are up for much of the region, for mainly street/urban flooding.
I am concerned for some valley “shadowing” effects, given that we will have strong east-northeasterly flow off of the ocean. The more easterly component to the wind runs perpendicular to the Worcester hills, and when air descends into the Pioneer Valley, it can lighten up the precip shield, before heavier rains pick back up due to orographic uplift over the eastern slopes of the Berkshires and western hilltowns (orographic uplift just means air is forced to rise due to the presence of mountains, which makes it rain harder).
So the valley may see more like 1-3″, with 2-5″ in the higher terrain type of thing.
Good thing for winter detesters that this isn’t in the middle of Winter, or else we’d be getting pasted with snow!
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WIND
This is a growing concern, as guidance continues to output high wind gusts, and I’d say if you know folks who live in RI, the Cape, the Islands, or the South and North Shores (especially South Shore), let them know that they could see gusts of 50-70mph there, maybe even to 75mph if the worst comes to pass.
This would produce widespread outages in those areas and plenty of damage and erosion, with dramatic wave heights of over 20 feet in some cases.
For us here in the greater WMass region, while I think most of us will see east-northeast gusts of 30-50mph, I am growing concerned about the potential for some 60mph gusts in higher terrain areas, and certainly scattered outages will occur with these kinds of wind gusts.
All this to say, is that if the storm tracks close enough and fully develops its wind field, we may have to move more to 35-60mph gusts, vs. 30-50mph (lowest gusts southern VT and northwest MA, highest CMass and northeast CT, as well as east-facing peaks of western Hampden County, southeast Berkshires, and northeast Litchfield highlands).
OUTAGES
As mentioned, I expect at least some isolated to scattered outages by Wednesday from this system, but we’ll have to watch to see if the wind field maximizes.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ONWARD
Highs will be in the 50s this week, and lows in the 40s, and by Wednesday afternoon into Friday morning, we enter a lull, with a nice day on Thursday when the Sun likely next comes out.
More rain is on the way Friday night into the weekend, but that storm (the one crushing the west coast now) could pass west of us, which would spare us the worst of it.
More on that we get closer, I will update you on our incoming storm this late afternoon, so look for that.
I hope you have a great day, and at the link below be sure to check out my colorful educational weather calendar.
ORDER DAVE’S 2022 WEATHER WALL CALENDAR:
https://westernmassweather.com/product/2022-dhtwn-weather-wall-calendar/
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