7:10AM-TUES: SWATHS OF MAJOR OUTAGES ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WITH WIND GUSTS 60-80MPH TONIGHT… GUSTS 25-50MPH IN THE WMASS REGION, SOME AREAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 60MPH IN NORTHEAST CT AND SOUTHERN CMASS… FLOOD WATCHES AND WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE… A POWERFUL NOR’EASTER WILL BE DRAWN WESTWARD, PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AND THE VINEYARD TONIGHT BEFORE LOOPING AWAY EARLY WEDNESDAY… MY 2022 WEATHER WALL CALENDAR IS ON SALE NOW (CLICK SECURE LINK TO ORDER)…
…………………………………………………………….
–Dave’s 2022 Weather Wall Calendar is On Sale Now
—https://westernmassweather.com/product/2022-dhtwn-weather-wall-calendar/
–Features Colorful, Local Photos, Weather Education, Haiku & More
–Great for Holiday Gifts or as your Personal Daily Companion
…………………………………………………………….
Good morning everybody, we’ve got a powerful, dynamic storm system set to impact our region today and tonight into Wednesday morning. While some scattered outages and street flooding impacts are expected in parts of our region, it’s southeast MA, Cape and the islands that more likely than not will get RAKED by this storm system (especially the outer Cape from Wellfleet to Provincetown), so let your folks know down that way to expect outages and wind damage.
Before we leap into the details like a dog on a bone below, please check out a note from our local and delicious sponsor, #TandemBagelCo
A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR:
DHTWN Is Sponsored by Members, Patrons & Tandem Bagel Company: No matter the weather, Tandem Bagel is always there for you at several valley locations to make your mornings brighter! With bagels baked fresh daily, house-whipped cream cheese, coffee, and tons of lunch options, Tandem is the perfect quick stop for lunch, breakfast, or a coffee and bagel to go. Find them in Easthampton, Northampton, Hadley, and Florence, or order online by visiting their website: https://www.tandembagelco.com
SUMMARY:
–Highs upper 40s to mid 50s, lows low to upper 40s Tues
–We’ve had 0.5″ to 1.5″ of rain already
–Totals should fall between 1-4″, some areas a bit under an inch, others a bit over 4″ possible
–Most of us get a lessening of rainfall this morning into early PM, except steadier rain possible Berkshires, western hills, Taconics, northwest CT
–Rain picks back up this evening, which is when the strongest winds out of the north and northeast arrive
–Peak wind is later tonight into the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday morning with gusts 25-50mph across the region, lower range to the northwest, higher range to the southeast
–Some areas in northeast CT/southern CMass may reach 55-60mph at times
–Showers abate sometime Wednesday morning, except may linger into afternoon in CMass and northeast CT
–Lowest wind and rain in SVT and SWNH
DISCUSSION:
Good morning folks, there’s lots to discuss so I am going to jump into the current atmospheric setup, timing, impacts of rain and wind, and dissipation of this storm, and be brief about the second half of the week, but will mention the Halloween forecast for sure.
SETUP
Our original storm has pushed to the NJ coast, and our secondary storm (now more powerful than the original) is developing rapidly further east over the ocean, and tracking north.
Thanks to an upper level low, now negatively-tilted over the eastern Great Lakes and digging down into northern Appalachia, the energy transfer from the old storm into the new continues this morning.
Due to the strong high pressure moving into place in Quebec province to our north, said high pressure and said upper low will combine to both draw our storm that is now undergoing deep cyclogenesis (a/k/a bombogenesis, a 24mb pressure drop in under 24 hours) northward, and eventually “capture” it and pull it westward toward Nantucket island this evening.
KEY POINT: How far west at the latitude of Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard this storm gets pulled toward the upper low before it begins its loop southwest, south, southeast, east and out to sea overnight into Wednesday will determine the level of winds we experience in the WMass region, but also over southeast MA, Rhode Island, southeast CT and eastern LI, where the worst winds will occur, with gusts potentially upwards of 60-80mph tonight and into the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday there, and as high as 40-60mph east of the I-91 corridor in the highlands of easternmost Hampshire/Hampden Counties, as well as CMass and northeast CT.
TIMING OF RAIN
We’ve already received 0.5″ to 1.5″ of rainfall so far with this storm yesterday and overnight.
While central and eastern portions of northern CT, along with the CT River Valley in WMass into SVT/SWNH, and CMass should see a lull in rainfall this morning (with showers moving through at times), northwest CT, the southwest hill towns of WMass, the Berkshires and Taconics should continue to see moderate to heavy rainfall at times this morning, with more rain will fall during the first half of today.
Areas east of there should fill back in with rainfall by late afternoon or possibly by early evening tonight, with all of us getting back into more waves and bands of varying intensity rainfall tonight into early Wednesday morning.
Only CMass and northeast CT should continue to see showers by Wednesday noon and into the afternoon, but I will update that we go.
RAIN TOTALS
Again, 1-4″ seems to be reasonable for totals. No doubt, some areas of southern VT may see less than an inch, and that rain dearth may extend down into central or eastern Franklin County and east into southwest NH, but 1-4″ should cover it, and some areas in either southern Worcester County / northeast CT, as well as the southern Berkshires into northwest CT may see a little more than 4″.
WIND TIMING
It’ll be be breezy at times today, but wind gusts will pick up between 6pm-midnight, and peak around/after midnight into the pre-dawn hours as the storm makes its closest pass to Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard after midnight.
It’s during that 10pm-4am timeframe that our peak gusts of 25-50mph would be experienced, with some areas getting up to 60mph possible well east of the I-91 corridor in southern CMass and northeast CT.
The Cape and Islands, and possibly even the south shore of Boston in Plymouth County, could go to 60-80mph with widespread power outages there and only scattered outages in the WMass region, especially east of the I-91 corridor.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND IN DOUBLE DASHES
–Highs will be in the 50s
–Morning showers give way to mostly cloudy skies, some late breaks in the cloud deck possible in the Berkshires
–Lows upper 30s to mid 40s Wednesday night, clearing late
–Thursday nice, mostly sunny, highs mid to upper 50s, pick of the week!
–Chilly at night, lows mid to upper 30s
–Partial sun Friday, clouds increase, another storm arrives at night with more rain into Saturday and Saturday night, 1-2″ possible
–Early Sunday showers should give way to drying, Halloween looks dry at the moment, highs 55-60º, with fair weather into early next week
Ok, that does it for now, I will be on this all day and night, so please check back with me for updates!
I hope you have a great day, and at the link below be sure to check out my colorful educational weather calendar, the sales of which help support my work here and keep me in this digital saddle, thank you.
ORDER DAVE’S 2022 WEATHER WALL CALENDAR:
https://westernmassweather.com/product/2022-dhtwn-weather-wall-calendar/
S-T-A-Y—C-O-N-N-E-C-T-E-D
INTERACT HERE: Consistency is key to be shown my reports
FUTURE MOBILE APP: Sign up below to get availability updates:
https://westernmassweather.com/dhtwn-mobile-app/
EMAIL: dave at westernmassweather dot com
THINK OF THIS PAGE LIKE A TV STATION
Bookmark this page and/or actively visit it daily:
https://www.facebook.com/WesternMassWeather
NEWSLETTER: Sign up for “The Nutletter”, my weekly weather newsletter and get my Free Report on our most impactful storms during the 21st Century:
https://westernmassweather.com/dhtwn-newsletter/
REVIEW: If you feel my work here is useful, please review it:
https://www.facebook.com/WesternMassWeather/reviews/
TWITTER: Follow me at https://twitter.com/DHTheWeatherNut