WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT INCLUDING BENNINGTON COUNTY AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY… WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WMASS REGION (E.NY, SW.NH, W.MASS, C.MASS, N.CT AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY IN S.VT)… SNOW ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CHANGES TO SLEET FROM SOUTH TO NORTH (LIKELY BEFORE DAWN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PIKE)… WE CHANGE TO SHOWERS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN WMASS, CMASS AND NCT, WITH SNOW/SLEET MIX IN SVT AND SWNH AS THE MORNING WEARS ON… BY NOON, WE ENTER A LULL FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME MIXED SHOWERS POSSIBLE… THEN RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN MOVES BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE IT QUITS… COMPLICATED SETUP (WHAT’S NEW)… (7:20am Wed)

Good evening everybody, before we get going, I am leaving amounts alone from what I posted this morning.

I feel like this system is going to have surprises with it, given the powerful convection and thunderstorm activity that is ongoing down in the Mississippi Valley, form where this storm is emanating. Given that and the potential for the storm to not produce much of a back edge/wraparound snow shield Friday afternoon, it means that the amounts below could bust low, but I’m leaving them for now:

SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS (Through Friday evening)
–Coating to 2″ from northern CT north to Route 2 corridor
–2″-4″ along and north of Route 2 in northern MA north into southeastern VT (Brattleboro region) and southwest NH. A few sub-2″ amounts possible
–3-6″ in western Windham and Bennington counties in SVT (the high terrain of the southern Green Mountains, Bennington itself probably sees 1-3″ or so)
–If we get colder air on the back side of Friday’s system, this could add an inch of snow on top of those numbers
–One to two tenths of an inch of ice accretion by Thursday night for the western hilltowns, Berkshires, SVT, SWNH, and along and north of Rt. 2 in WMass and CMass, with trace to tenth of an inch of ice accretion in the valley and northern CT and southern Worcester County before changing to rain late Thursday

SUMMARY
–For tonight, clouds will increase with time, and temps will be plenty cold, dropping into the low to mid 20s
–Snow arrives after midnight, but it may be short-lived as the storm tracks AT us, and not south of us, allowing for milder air aloft to work in quickly
–I think by dawn, many of us will be already over to sleet after a coating to an inch of snow
–From the Rt. 2 corridor on north into southern VT and southwest NH, we could still be snowing at dawn, or seeing a sleet/snow mix, especially closer to Rt. 2
–We will be flipping over to freezing rain in northern CT and a sleet/freezing mix north of the MA/CT line in WMass and CMass as the morning wears on
–At the moment it appears we could see a lightening, a lulling, a break, a reprieve, and a lessening of the precip rate, intensity by about noon or so, with more scattered rain and ice showers, as even SVT and SWNH by noon or early afternoon should be done with the snow.
–By evening rain picks back up again with system #2 developing quickly along the east side of an upper level system that will be pushing into the Great Lakes region
–This system #2 will PASTE the northern New England mountains and Adirondacks with up to or even over foot of snow, so skiers? Head north this weekend!!
–For us in southern New England, we see rain Thursday night, with some freezing rain pockets in the Berkshires, western hilltowns, northern Worcester hills and into parts of SVT and SWNH, changing to all rain by Friday morning
–Rain lasts until about noon, with some changeover to snow north of Rt. 2 before it quits
–Cold air rushes in behind the storm as it departs northeast, and will cause black ice problems late Friday night and especially early Saturday morning
–A nice, partly to mostly sunny weekend is on the way, with highs in the 20s Saturday and 30s Sunday, with clouds increasing late on Sunday
–I will continue to watch Sunday night into Monday for possible snow or ice, so stay tuned for updates
–We enter another Mildening early next week, with more stormy weather possible by Wednesday or Thursday

Southern New England snow lovers: the hits keep coming, I’m about ready to throw in the towel – in early February. *insert sad face here*

It just doesn’t look like this winter is going to produce, as I thought it would during the second half. I’m not giving up all hope, but I don’t have a lot of it either. The pattern just isn’t there so far, and no real signs of it showing up, either.

We will see, it’s New England, and March is always a surprise month, but for now, I wouldn’t get yours hopes up (Dave Hayes secretly is hoping that will cause an anti-jinx related to said outlook and bring snow).

Have a great night, see you early tomorrow morning right here with an update!
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[WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HOISTED REGION WIDE] FOR TOMORROW INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND LASTING INTO THE EVENING FOR SOUTHERN VT, NORTHERN BERKSHIRES/TACONICS AND SOUTHWEST NH… SNOW BREAKS OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, CHANGING TO SLEET BY DAWN SOUTH OF ROUTE 2, WITH SNOW AND SLEET NORTH OF ROUTE 2… WE ALL CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THE MORNING…SLIPPERY COMMUTE EXPECTED… ICE MAY LAST IN THE BERKSHIRES, WESTERN HILLS, PORTIONS OF EASTERN HILLS INTO NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY UP INTO SVT/SWNH WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH CHANGE TO RAIN SOUTH OF GREENFIELD IN THE VALLEY AND DOWN INTO NORTHERN CT… LULL THURSDAY EVENING, THEN HEAVIER RAIN (SOME ICE?) AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY, CHANGING TO SNOW BY LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON NORTH TO SOUTH WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS… (7:00am Wed)

Good morning everybody, lots to talk about, so let me jump right on and bullet it out for you.

SUMMARY
–After some light mixed showers overnight, they are clearing east, temps are in the 30s, near freezing in a few spots
–These are likely our high temps for the day, they won’t move too much, and then fall later
–As high pressure presses in from the west, sinking air (a/k/a subsidence) will break the cloud deck up, and reveal partly sunny skies with highs in the mid to upper 30s
–Clouds build again tonight, with lows dropping into the upper teens to mid 20s, setting us up for our wintry mix mess of a Thursday morning commute
–Timing is lousy with this one, as low pressure tracks northeast into the Ohio Valley, spreading snow into the region after midnight, probably arriving between 1-3am from southwest to northeast
–Milder air aloft will rush in overhead, as we will be on the northeast/east side of this system
–However, cold high pressure over Maine will keep the cold air drain going at the surface, which is a classic recipe for sleet and freezing rain, which will become the dominant precip type after dawn
–So, snow changes to sleet up to the Route 2 corridor in WMass and CMass between 5-8am, I’d say, with snow or snow mixed with sleet north of Route 2 in northern MA, southern VT and southwest NH
–Eventually by mid to late morning the entire WMass region (SVT, SWNH, WMass, CMass, NCT, ENY) will be sleeting or seeing freezing rain
–By afternoon northern CT, Hampden County, and the central and northern Pioneer Valley up to about Greenfield or so, and including southern Worcester County should see a change to plain rain before we go to more scattered showers as a lull works in by early evening
–Areas like the Berkshires, northern Litchfields, western hilltowns, highest elevations in the eastern hilltowns into northern Worcester County, on north into northern Taconics, southern VT and southwest NH may hold onto icing well into the afternoon before this showery lull works into the region by evening
–Highs will reach the 30s with lows not dropping much at all. Not much wind is expected during this event.
–As an upper level trough (i.e. broad area aloft of lower than average pressures which fosters inclement weather) swings east toward the coast, another wave of low pressure will be invigorated by this trough, and heavier rain will spread northeast into our region after midnight early Friday morning
–Rain will fall heavily at times (maybe some sleet mixed in over the highest terrain) through Friday morning, and depending on storm track will change to snow in southern VT and southwest NH (especially northern halves of those areas) by late morning, and rain will change to snow south and east of there as the afternoon wears on
–Any snow and rain quits by late Friday afternoon
–Highs Friday will be in the mid to upper 30s but crashing later in the day as snow moves in, and temps will drop into the upper teens, with black ice potential late Friday night and early Saturday morning
–Saturday looks gorgeous and cold, sunny and highs in the 20s, with lows in the teens
–Sunday looks partly sunny much of the day with highs in the 30s, with clouds building late
–Depending on how the streamflow is altered after the next few days of weather transpires, we may see some snow Sunday night into Monday
–We should turn milder next week, but our active pattern continues, with at least 3 storm systems possible from Tuesday through next weekend

Keep it tuned here folks, and I will keep you updated, and will certainly post an evening report with updates on our wintry mess storm system moving in early tomorrow morning.

Have a great day!