Wintry Mix Mess for Saturday 12/18/21 (7:30pm)

EVENING UPDATE: MOSTLY RAIN, FREEZING RAIN IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WEST OF THE CT RIVER, AND SLEET NORTH OF THE RT. 2 CORRIDOR WITH SOME SNOW IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND SOUTHWEST NH CONTINUES TONIGHT INTERMITTENTLY… 7:25pm Sat…

Good evening everybody, our cold rain and sloppy ice system continues tonight with snow reported in northern parts of southern VT and southwest NH, on north into central VT/NH.

Aside from the Pioneer Valley, and southern Housatonic Valley down into northern CT, we’ve got numerous temp reports of upper 20s to low 30s (upper 20s are mainly relegated to southern VT and southwest NH, low 30s south of there in MA).

That combined with the warm nose a mile up or so which is now firmly pushing northeast into the Berkshires and northwest CT and southwest MA, means that this is mainly rain south and either freezing rain, freezing drizzle or sleet north, with snow way north.

I am concerned for ice glazing that is likely occurring in the western hilltowns of Hampshire and Franklin County (and in lesser pockets in western Hampden and northern Litchfield Counties), as well as parts of the Berkshires, and possibly even in southernmost VT towns along the MA border.

Is anyone seeing freezing or ice glazing taking place? It may be occurring in central MA as well, given many 30, 31 and 32º readings there.

From Hampshire County south it’s mainly rainfall, and roads are wet there.

Please post any new reports. Our mixed-bag precip will continue through midnight, and we may switch back to a quick set of light snow showers before it ends before or around dawn as the storm pulls away.

Thank you for all of the reports today…


MILDER STORM TREND MEANS SNOW AND SLEET EARLY, THEN MORE OF A SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND RAIN EVENT SOUTH OF THE VT-NH BORDER IN WMASS/CMASS/NCT THROUGH TONIGHT… WORST TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE AT ELEVATION WEST AND EAST OF THE CT RIVER, AND NORTH OF THE RT. 2 CORRIDOR WITH MORE ICE AND SNOW THERE… 7:30am Saturday…

Good morning everybody, our storm is on its way, and it looks like a sloppy mixed bag with an initial period of patchy light snow, sleet and rain earlier this morning (some will remain dry until the atmosphere moistens up), trending to snow north of the Pike and sleet south of the Pike as the atmosphere cools down with steadier precipitation moving into the region.

That was a run-on sentence, for which I’ve administered a penalty of no food for a week (someone’s gotta keep me in line, might as well be me!)

The steadier precipitation in the form of snow and sleet should arrive by late morning west into the noon/early afternoon hours east of the CT River.

Highs will reach the low to mid 30s or so today, with lows in the 25-30º range along with light winds.

CURRENT CONDITIONS
Temperatures are currently in the low to mid 30s for the most part, and so some folks will see light rain, sleet or snow this morning.

However, dew point temps are in the low to mid 20s, meaning that by late morning into early afternoon, as we see precipitation fill in and become more steady, we should see snow develop north of the Pike with a brief period of snow changing to sleet south of the Pike as evaporative cooling cools the column (say that 10 times fast).

In fact, it’s already sleeting in northern CT at the 7am hour.

NOT A BIG SNOW THUMPER
Without a super cold remnant air mass in place, or a ton of atmospheric lift, this is unlikely to be a storm that produces a big initial thump of snow, as you need prodigious lift and big fluffy dendrites en masse to accomplish that, so the ranges offered below will more likely than not come in toward the lower halves of those ranges for accumulations.

In addition, through the afternoon, snow will eventually change to sleet and freezing rain from south to north as a warm nose of air about half a mile to a mile above our heads pushes into the region.

SLEETY SLOPPY ICE MESS
I think by late afternoon toward sunset many of us will be seeing sleet and freezing rain south of the Route 2 corridor, but there may be some snowy holdouts in southern Franklin County, the Worcester Highlands and central Berkshires/Taconics.

In addition, I think plain rain will be falling in north-central CT in the CT River Valley from Hartford to possibly as far north as Springfield, though it may still be icing there. I do expect rain to push into central Hampden County early this evening, and it may reach as far north as Northampton/Hadley/Amherst latitude.

This evening looks rainy south of Northampton, with either sleet or freezing rain near and north of Northampton up to the VT/NH border with MA, with snow and sleet in southern VT and southwest NH, and maybe all snow in the northernmost towns of Bennington, Windham and Cheshire Counties in SVT/SWNH.

SLIPPERY TRAVEL NORTHERN MA & HILLTOWNS
I am concerned for up to two-tenths of an inch of freezing rain in the western hilltowns tonight, especially south of Rt. 2 Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden Counties, as well as northern Litchfield County, and the Berkshires and Taconics where temps should be colder.

Everything should flip back to snow after midnight and quickly end as the storm tracks south of Long Island and out to sea.

AMOUNTS
Generally a coating to an inch south of the Pike of snow and sleet, changing to freezing rain and rain with some ice accretion in the highlands of northeast CT and especially northwest CT.

About 1-4″ of snow and sleet north of the Pike up to the MA/VT-NH border, lower amounts south, higher amounts north, with freezing rain ice accretion of a tenth to a quarter inch in the Berkshires, western hilltowns, and and the hills of Worcester County .

Approximately 3-7″ of snow and sleet in southern VT and southwest NH with mostly snow and sleet there, but if places like Guilford, VT saw freezing rain tonight for a time, I wouldn’t be surprised, as this warm nose is a bit potent.

BLUSTERY SUNDAY, WICKED COLD NIGHT
For tomorrow, we get a clear, sunny, cold Sunday with blustery conditions on northwest winds gusting up to 30mph.

Winds slacken, we’re dry, we’re clear, we’re calm, and our temps PLUMMET into the upper singles to low teens tomorrow night for the coldest night of this nascent cold season.

Fair weather expected throughout next week, seasonably cold for the most part (except for Monday, which highs in the upper 20s to low 30s).

Have a great day, folks, and I will be updating throughout this storm, so stay tuned for updates, including a mid-day update.

By |2021-12-18T19:25:54-05:00December 18, 2021|Current Forecast|

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