[THURS-7:00AM] WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL OF WMASS, CMASS, SVT, AND SWNH FOR OUR FRIDAY SNOWSTORM… WINTER STORM WATCHES CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN CT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY RE: ICING THERE… SUBSTANTIAL MORNING COMMUTE IMPACTS WITH HEAVY SNOW FALLING 1-2″ PER HOUR… SLEET WILL MIX IN AS FAR NORTH AS THE RT. 2 CORRIDOR FOR A TIME AFTER BULK OF SNOW HAS FALLEN, THEN BACK TO SNOW LATER AFTERNOON… FAIR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK… ALSO RECENTLY-HOISTED IS MY 2022 MEMBER/SUPPORTER DRIVE…
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TODAY’S DATE: Thursday, February 24, 2022
Good morning folks, it’s been quite a ride this week in the Weather Department, and that will only continue as we get onboard the Winter Cyclone Rollercoaster late tonight and tomorrow, so before we dive into the details below, let’s check a note from our local and delicious sponsor, #TandemBagelCo, with a new location in West Springfield, MA.
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A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR:
DHTWN Is Sponsored by Members, Patrons & Tandem Bagel Company: No matter the weather, Tandem Bagel is always there for you at several valley locations to make your mornings brighter! With bagels baked fresh daily, house-whipped cream cheese, coffee, and tons of lunch options, Tandem is the perfect quick stop for lunch, breakfast, or a coffee and bagel to go. Find them in Easthampton, Northampton, Hadley, Florence (and now West Springfield!), or use their super-streamlined online ordering tool by visiting their website: https://www.tandembagelco.com
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***DHTWN WEATHER REPORT***
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DAILY CELESTIAL
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 6:33am this morning
–OUR STAR WILL SET AT: 5:34pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 11 hours and 1 minute
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–OUR MOON WILL SET AT: 10:51am this morning
–OUR MOON WILL RISE AT: 2:51am tomorrow morning
–MOON PHASE: Waning Crescent 44.5%
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DAILY TERRESTRIAL (ZoneCast)
ZONE 1 (Northern Region)
Southern VT, Southwest NH, N. Taconics NY
–High Temps: Mid 20s to Low 30s
–Low Temps: Upper Singles to Teens
–Wind: Light to Calm
–Skies: Mostly Sunny, Clouds Increase Tonight
–Precipitation: None today, snow after midnight
ZONE 2 (Central Region)
WMass, N. CMass, N. Litchfield County, C./S. Taconics NY
–High Temps: Upper 20s to Mid 30s
–Low Temps: Teens to Low 20s
–Wind: Light to Calm
–Skies: Mostly Sunny, Clouds Increase Tonight
–Precipitation: None today, snow after midnight
ZONE 3 (Southern Region)
S. CMass, S. Litchfield County, NC.CT, & NE.CT
–High Temps: Low to Mid 30s
–Low Temps: Low to Mid 20s
–Wind: Light to Calm
–Skies: Mostly Sunny, Clouds Increase Tonight
–Precipitation: None today, snow after midnight changing to sleet between 6-8am, roughly
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DISCUSSION:
Good morning everybody, amazingly we’ve seen a 25º to 40º drop in temperatures from 24 hours ago with temps out there now in the single digits over the southern Greens, and in the teens and 20s elsewhere.
We have the veritable calm before the storm today with mostly sunny skies expected north of Rt. 2, and partly sunny skies south of there with a bit more cloudiness down near the Pike and south into CT as some mid level moisture is hanging around, up to no good, lollygagging through life, and acting questionably.
Highs will reach the mid 20s to mid 30s from north to south today with lows dropping into the teens and 20s overnight as clouds increase.
All in all it will be a pleasant late February winter day, very much in contrast to yesterday which was like a taste of May!
STORM SETUP
An upper level trough out near the Four Corners region of the Rockies will sweep our surface low northeast, as the primary surface low tracks from near Arkansas through the Ohio Valley and into PA and southern NY by Friday morning.
Meanwhile, a strong, broad area of high pressure near 1040mb of pressure will be parking itself throughout eastern Ontario and southern Quebec Provinces in Canada, setting up our cold drain of air to the south into the greater WMass region tonight with lows in the teens to low 20s as clouds increase from our approaching primary surface low.
As this surface low runs into this big dome of high pressure, convergence will occur (meaning two air masses will collide, which forces air to rise, condense, and produce widespread precipitation).
This will cause strong frontogenesis to occur (just means the birth of a front where cold/dry and warm/moist air collide) which will produce a broad stratiform snow shield of moderate to heavy snow to form over the cold dome at the surface – the classic front-end thump of snow, which will arrive between 1-4am from southwest to northeast in the greater WMass region.
SNOWFALL RATES AND MORNING COMMUTE IMPACTS
This atmospheric activity is expected to combine and produce snowfall rates of 1-2″ per hour.
Given a nighttime onset of snow when surfaces and air are coldest typically, the snow will start sticking quickly, and accumulate on roads, causing slippery travel.
SUBSTANTIAL MORNING COMMUTE IMPACTS
Add to that, visibility will be much reduced in heavy snowfall, and all of this will combine when people are heading out on the roads for the morning commute, which will be SLOWED substantially.
You will need to give yourself plenty of extra time, and I would also pack a shovel, some water, a non-perishable snack, and maybe some sand and cardboard to try and unstick yourself if you happen to spin out.
SLEET WILL MIX IN FOR MANY OF US
Remember that this primary low will push into southern NY – which is west of New England.
As it does so, it will be forced to weaken due to the powerful high pressure it will be plowing into, and will thus form a secondary low south of Long Island or Block Island RI.
Regardless, some mid-level warm air will push in overhead up to at least the MassPike, and possibly as far north as the Rt. 2 corridor for a time, which will introduce sleet into the mix (no pun intended…. actually, it was intended).
SLEET MIX/CHANGEOVER TIMES
–6-8am for northern CT
–8-11am for southern Berkshire, Hampden and southern Worcester Counties
–Late morning to early afternoon north of the Pike up to as far as the Rt. 2 corridor
WHO SEES ALL SNOW?
The best chance for all snow is along/north of the Rt. 2 corridor, but that may occur as far south as the Rt. 9 corridor in the central Berkshires, Hampshire County, and central Worcester County.
We should all change back to snow by mid afternoon as the secondary low strengthens and becomes the dominant storm and pulls colder air back through all levels of the air above us, though intensity at that point would be light to moderate, and possibly showery in coverage.
THE SNOWSTORM BUST FACTOR
Some short-term guidance still shows our surface low tracking a bit further west and gaining more northward push before the secondary low energy transfer is completed, which would form the secondary low over Block Island or RI, which is further north than all other guidance – that could allow the mid-level warm air incursion farther north into our region.
Another factor to consider is that the heavy snowfall *could* help delay the warm nose intrusion moving northward too quickly as an isothermal environment (similar cold temps all the way up and down the column of air from surface to sky) is maintained during this initial front-end snow thump period.
How these two factors play out will determine whether or not we see 3-6″ of snow in much of WMass with a bunch of sleet by mid morning through much of the storm south of Rt. 2, with snow and some sleet mix north of Rt. 2 with 5-10″ there, OR the more snowy solution that I still believe will happen.
The scenario I just painted IS POSSIBLE, but a low chance in my mind right now. I am going with the snowier solution.
SNOWFALL TOTALS
I think we’ll see 6-12″ from the MassPike region northward into VT and NH, with a jackpot area of 10-15″ possible in the southern Greens of southern VT, which may bleed down into northwestern most Franklin County and the northeast Berkshires.
Otherwise 3-7″ should do it for south of the Pike into northern CT where more sleet will mix in and even changeover after the front-end early morning snow thump.
The storm will end by late afternoon or early evening with light to occasionally moderate snow as the column cools below freezing with the secondary low taking over and pulling east and out to sea.
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
It looks cold and fair and sunny this weekend, and that should last into early next week, so no plans should be impacted by the weather then, but for now, I am focused on this storm, and will update you this evening with a full report, and I will be up at 3am throughout the duration of the storm posting in-storm coverage here and on Twitter, so stay in contact with me tonight and tomorrow until it’d done!
I hope you have a great day, and if my work is useful or valuable to you and yours, please click below to see the myriad of support options available during my 2022 Member/Supporter Drive. Thx!
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