6:40A-WED: LOW TORNADO RISK FOR THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS UP INTO SOUTHWEST VT TONIGHT… AFTER A NICE DAY, HUMIDITY AND CLOUDINESS INCREASES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING AFTER DINNER TIME BETWEEN 8PM-MIDNIGHT… SOME MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS… A NOISY AND BRIGHT NIGHT FOR SOME AHEAD… SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES ON THURSDAY, WITH A FINAL PERIOD OF RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-91 CORRIDOR IN THE EVENING… FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS LOVELY… EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS PRETTY, PRETTY, PRETTY… PRETTY GOOD… PRETTY GOOD… #NameThatReference
Good morning everybody, we’ve got some storm action to move through tonight and tomorrow before we get to the good stuff Friday through the weekend. Tonight and tomorrow’s frontal passage will likely bring a decent soaking rainfall for some, anywhere on the order of about half an inch up to 1.5″ depending on who in our region gets under any heavy showers or thunderstorms that run over the same area.
We’ll jump into more detail below, but first let’s get a word from our sponsor to kick off the new work week.
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DISCUSSION
After some patchy morning fog burns off, we’ll end up with a mostly nice, increasingly summery day today as our cold front will be well west of the region for much of the day (and in fact won’t pass through west to east until tomorrow).
Highs today under mostly sunny skies will reach the upper 70s to low/mid 80s as humidity increases, with dewpoint temps rising into the mid 60s and likely upper 60s later tonight.
South to southeasterly winds will develop today ahead of our incoming weather and gust 20-30mph, which will help tamp the humidity a bit.
Clouds will build later in the day, as daytime instability mixes with deep moist flow from the south. This will pop a few scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorms as early as the 5-8pm period in the Berkshires and Taconics, though most activity arrives after 8pm tonight.
With southerly flow ahead of the front and thunderstorms approaching from the west, there will be some low-level turning of the wind, which means a couple of weak tornadoes are possible mainly from the western half of Berkshire and Bennington Counties westward into the Taconics of eastern NY.
This potential is LOW, and should become lower to ZERO as you go east in the WMass and S.VT/NW.CT regions.
However, any of us could see one or two strong to severe thunderstorms later tonight with damaging straight line wind possible, and hail as well.
It looks like a flashy and rainy night is ahead, if you know what I mean, and lows will drop into the low to mid 60s with dewpoints at the same temps as the air.
For Thursday, the cold front will actually track through the region in the afternoon, and ahead of it we’ll have some scattered showers at times, maybe a thunderstorm, and lulls interspersed during the day.
Highs will reach the low to mid 70s under mostly cloudy skies, with some patchy fog early in the morning given the saturated air.
By later afternoon into the evening, another final round of rain may develop along the cold front as it passes through, and the timing is such that this should happen mainly east of the I-91 corridor.
Showers come to a close Thursday night with lows in the mid to upper 50s and about 0.5 to 1.5″ of rainfall by Friday morning expected.
Aside from a spot shower on Friday, it looks mostly dry with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s and lows in the upper 40s to low 50s – Autumnal!
A picture perfect weekend lies ahead as high pressure builds in and parks itself over southern New England. Mostly sunny skies, 70-75 on Saturday and 75-80 on Sunday, we’ll take it! Lows in the 50s.
By early next week, while highs remain in the low to mid 70s and partly sunny days are expected, there may be another shortwave that swings through the region bringing a period of scattered showers.
But as of now, I’d say it classifies as no-big-whoop weather.
Have a great day and I will be updating later today on our incoming potential severe weather tonight, so check back in for updates!