6:55A-TUES: A WET WEDNESDAY EVE AND NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BEGETS A GORGEOUS WEEKEND… MOSTLY DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING PERIOD, THANKFULLY…
Good morning everybody, we’ve got a LOT of pleasant days ahead, provided a frontal boundary weakens over us during the Sunday/Monday period. If that weakening does occur, we are essentially only looking at one period of atmospheric inclemency during the Wednesday late afternoon into Thursday afternoon period with a potential for substantial rainfall due to the combo of showers, thunderstorms, and some training of showers due to the flow ahead of the incoming cold front being parallel with it.
We’ll jump into more detail below, but first let’s get a word from our sponsor to kick off the new work week.
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DISCUSSION
High pressure continues to track nearby and south of us, which will provide another beauty of day for us this Tuesday that we’re fortunate to wake up to. Think about it for a second… you woke up AGAIN. For some folks, that is brutal reality if life is going poorly, but if you have ANY things that are going pretty well, are working out, are outstanding or even just mediocre, we have another chance today for things to improve a bit, which is a stroke of good fortune if you ask me.
Moving on, yet another beautifully sunny day will visit us, with some afternoon fair weather cumulus clouds dotting the skies. Highs will be around the mid 70s, a touch warmer Springfield points south and east, a touch cooler like the low 70s up in southern VT and southwest NH.
It’ll be mostly clear overnight with lows in the mid to upper 50s – crisp and autumnal feeling. #thecrispening
For Wednesday we go through a noticeable transition to late-summer warmth with humidity increasing.
We should start off mostly sunny, but clouds will increase as the day wears on, mostly in the afternoon, first in the western areas like the Berkshires, and later east.
As low pressure tracks into the eastern Great Lakes, its cold front will be draped south through west-central NY and PA late in the day. Ahead of this front will be a destabilized area, thanks to highs that will reach the upper 70s to mid 80s with increasing dewpoints into the 60s, providing a muggy summer feel.
This should be enough to pop some scattered showers or a thunderstorm which may become strong.
However, most of the shower and storm activity should fall overnight into Thursday morning.
So we’ll lose the instability of the heating of the day, but wind shear will be increasing to substantial levels. When instability and shear combine with a frontal passage you normally get strong to severe weather, but these will be offset.
So while an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible overnight, I think we have to be concerned more about the chance for heavy rainfall during the pre-dawn hours into Thursday morning, and we can’t rule out some flash flood risk from this system as low temps sit either side of 60º.
Thursday starts of rainy, and showers may last past the noon hour with highs in the low to mid 70s, with some possible brightening late in the day. Lows will dip into the 50s as we clear out behind the front.
Then, if we can get some frontal weakening Sunday/Monday timeframe, we’ve got a mostly sunny period coming up Friday through Monday with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the low to mid 50s with low humidity and dry air through the period. Sunday might be a bit warmer, but no 80s are in sight.
We’ve got mostly great weather to look forward to, so have a great day!