7:00A-TUES: SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TOMORROW… WARM FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE… COLD FRONT PRESSES SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AGAINST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG SHEAR, INSTABILITY, AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE, AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES… SHOWERY ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF RT. 2 AND EAST OF I-91… FRIDAY IS WILD CARD WITH OCEAN STORM THAT MAY TAKE ON TROPICAL ATTRIBUTES AND BRING RAINY CONDITIONS AT TIMES FRI/SAT BEFORE WE DRY OUT AND COOL DOWN SUN/MON… 2022 CALL FOR REGIONAL FAN PHOTOS FOR INCLUSION IN MY NEXT WEATHER WALL CALENDAR IS OPEN THROUGH 9/26, PLEASE MESSAGE ME FOR INSTRUCTIONS/DETAILS…
Good morning folks, we’ve got one more sweet day to enjoy before our weather heads downhill through the remainder of the week, and possibly the first half of the weekend.
Today is the weekly pick, and Sunday is the weekend pick, with a stormy, showery middle period Wednesday through Saturday.
We’ll jump into the details below, but first a word from our local and delicious sponsor.
A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR
DHTWN Is Sponsored by Patrons & Tandem Bagel Company:
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DISCUSSION:
We turn to face our star once again, another of the many thousands of times we’ve done so in this life and in these bodies. If life is going well, it’s easier to be grateful for such a wondrous thing, and if life isn’t going well, consider remembering even a brief moment when things went your way, and savor that for a couple of minutes, inhabit it. Then, from there, look upon this morning with new eyes and an appreciation for the chance that maybe things WILL go better today… I hope they do for you.
Wait a minute, this is the Weather Report Department, yes? Oh, whoops… just one second while I put on my other hat… ok, right this way!
WEATHER REPORT
For today, aside from a few showers in southern Litchfield County early this morning and some patchy fog in the Berkshires and northern CT River Valley in Franklin County and SVT/SWNH, we will see a partly sunny day develop across the region with highs well into the 70s with lower humidity for a day, before dewpoints rise tonight and certainly tomorrow, when it will become quite humid.
A warm front now draped west-northwest to east-southeast across northeast PA, northern NJ, and southeast NY will begin to push northeast into the region late today and tonight.
This area of convergence (i.e. disparate air masses that are meeting up and pushing into each other) will produce some atmospheric lift and rising air, which should help to develop some isolated showers and perhaps a couple of strong thunderstorms this evening and tonight, with small hail possible.
Lows will drop into the low to mid 60s, and as humidity increases, patchy fog is possible by morning.
DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE TOMORROW EVE
Tomorrow is a day to monitor in terms of severe weather potential, as we could get some hairy conditions developing by late afternoon and early evening.
Our warm front will be through the region to our north, and as such, we’ll see highs soaring into the low to mid 80s with dewpoint temps coming up into the 60s, and possibly reaching 70º by afternoon – quite summery!
This will provide plenty of juice for storms to feed on as a strong cold front comes sailing in from the northwest and pressing southeast into the northern Taconics west of Williamstown and Bennington, as well as into the broader southern VT region by around 6pm, give or take an hour or so.
Southwest winds will gust over 20mph before the front approaches, and northwest flow will be pressing into those southwesterlies.
A low level jet is forecast to accompany this cold frontal boundary, and as such strong wind shear (i.e. a change with wind speed and/or direction from surface to sky) is expected along with strong instability – when those two parameters combine, we tend to get severe thunderstorms to develop.
This looks to all combine to produce a line of strong to severe thunderstorms that will sweep the region, and some of those storms will be rotating, with potential to drop a tornado or two, especially along and north of the Rt. 2 corridor in MA, VT and NH.
In addition, localized areas of straight line damaging wind are possible, with torrential rain and hail.
Flash flooding cannot be ruled out, either.
This activity will wane later at night, but stay tuned here for updates over the next 36 hours or so as the potential for strong/severe weather returns to the WMass region.
Lows Wednesday night will bottom out into the upper 50s to low 60s.
THURS THRU SAT LOOKS INCLEMENT AT THE MOMENT
Thursday looks like a mostly cloudy, humid, and showery day as our cold front will be slowing forward speed, and sort of lollygag about the region, to which I say whoopie, yahoo, please stay all year, thanks, I love you, now go away.
It won’t be a washout, but it looks like periods of light to moderate showers, especially the further east you go, with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows near 60º.
For Friday into Saturday, we have to watch low pressure that should develop near the Bahamas and be drawn northward toward New England.
How far north it gets before it is directed northeast and out to sea is undetermined at this point.
The storm has the potential to become a Tropical Depression, but it is not expected to gain enough strength to morph into a Tropical Storm.
All this to say is that Friday and Saturday holds the potential for more wet weather before we dry things out for the Sunday into Monday timeframe, when humidity should lower and temps should come down with fresh Canadian air advecting back into the region from our northwest.
Have a great day, and stay tuned for severe weather updates over the next couple of days!