6:50A-MON: VERY UNSETTLED LOOK FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT, AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING… SHOWERS ON THURSDAY MAY BEGET A TROPICAL CONNECTION BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF NICHOLAS, A NEW LOW OFF OF THE CAROLINAS, AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR NEW ENGLAND FOR A POTENTIALLY SOAKING FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-91 CORRIDOR… 2022 CALL FOR REGIONAL FAN PHOTOS FOR INCLUSION IN MY WEATHER CALENDAR IS OPEN THROUGH 9/26, PLEASE EMAIL ME FOR INSTRUCTIONS/DETAILS…
Good morning everybody, we had some rockin’ and rollin’ last night and early this morning with that decaying Mesoscale Convective System as it tracked through the region, with other showers and storms closer to the midnight hour.
As that leaves us behind this morning, we’ll enjoy about a 36 hour period of drier, nicer conditions before we enter an unsettled and at times stormy period from Tuesday night through Friday night, with a glimmer of hope that we can salvage a gorgeous weekend.
We’ll jump into the details below, but first a word from our local and delicious sponsor.
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DISCUSSION:
Despite our overnight shower and storm activity tracking east and out of our region as dawn breaks, we’ll still have a few lighter/lingering showers that will dot our windshields, glasses, and craniums (crania?) this morning before clouds begin to break up and clear out.
A mostly sunny day will pull its act together across the WMass region and highs should rise well into the 70s, with some upper 70s possible in the lower Pioneer Valley. West and northwest winds should be light, and humidity will be decreasing.
Tonight will be the last calm, clear, and dry night that fosters better sleep, with lows in the low 50s under partly cloudy skies with low humidity.
On Tuesday, we should squeeze in another nice day under partly sunny skies and waning high pressure influence. Clouds will build late in the day, and possibly more towards evening as a warm front will be approaching from our southwest.
Highs will reach the low to mid 70s.
As of now, while the lower levels look more stable, the mid levels look very unstable and so elevated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may develops, IF the lift generated by the warm front can be sufficient enough to induce storm development. If it does, isolated to scattered strong/severe thunderstorms with larger hail are possible overnight Tuesday.
Lows will be in the low to mid 60s with increasing humidity as the warm front works through the region.
Tuesday is lower probability severe storm potential than Wednesday late afternoon and early evening, which could cause some problems for us.
On Wednesday, a cold front will be slicing into the region, with much warmer temps developing ahead of that front, and behind the warm frontal passage.
Highs should reach the low to mid 80s, and substantial instability (the name of my new memoir) will develop at surface levels, and will likely combine with strong wind shear across the region.
As long as this cold front doesn’t lollygag on its approach to the WMass region (meaning, hold off until night time), we could see a squall line develop with damaging straightline winds, torrential rainfall, frequent lightning and hail. We can’t even rule out an isolated tornado at this point.
Showers and storms will continue on Wednesday night, winding down late, with lows in the low to mid 60s.
The Thursday/Friday period will need more refinement and adjustments as we get closer, but here’s how it looks to shake out at the moment.
For Thursday, the cold front may slow down or even stall over south-central or southeast New England and allow more scattered showers to dominate our skies, with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the 60s.
On Friday, we have to watch the complex combination of the remnants of Tropical Storm Nicholas, a subtropical low center that is signaled to form along the Carolina coastline, and a frontal boundary near New England that may draw all of that messy morass up and into the WMass, CMass and northeast CT region and points southeast to potentially produce a soaking rainfall.
Highs on Friday looks to range in the low to mid 70s with lows near 60º.
The momentary silver lining is that we could salvage a beautiful weekend with highs in the 75-80º range, but we need to get closer to see if that’s going to pan out or not.
Hope you have a great day and enjoy the increasing star shine!