WE’RE SHIFTING BACK INTO WARM UNSETTLED PATTERN… LATE SUMMER ISN’T OVER, AND NEITHER ARE SEVERE STORM CHANCES, OR POTENTIAL TROPICAL IMPACTS… STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DAWN, WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WEAK TORNADO POTENTIAL… MONDAY/TUESDAY GENERALLY DRIER, A TOUCH COOLER, BUT BY MID WEEK, MORE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASE AND WARMTH/HUMIDITY DO TOO, WHICH MAY LAST INTO THE WEEKEND… CALL FOR 2022 DHTWN WEATHER CALENDAR PHOTOS OF THE WMASS REGION… 8:25AM SUN…
Good morning folks, we’re milder this morning than the previous one, and our humidity is going to combine today with high temps in the mid 70s to low 80s to set the stage for scattered showers and thunderstorms, in two possible rounds.
The second round looks likely in the WMass region late tonight, likely around/after midnight and before the dawning of the next Monday of our lives. A few of those storms could be strong, but it’s the low-chance potential for this late afternoon that could be a stronger impact, but for less locales.
We will have strong wind shear moving into our region this afternoon well out and ahead of a cold front that moves through early Monday morning.
This combined with warm and increasingly humid air may help produce isolated thunderstorms that may feature rotation, and could drop a weak tornado in the Taconics or western Berkshires near dinner time, or thereabouts.
That activity wanes as we push past sunset, but we’ll be watching the second, more likely threat, possibly in the form of a larger cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms called a Mesoscale Convective Complex (or Mesoscale Convective System).
These larger clusters of storms can self-sustain across longer distances, so we’ll be monitoring for that and I will update you both this afternoon, and this evening for these two potential rounds of inclement weather.
Lows tonight upper 50s to mid 60s, with a few showers possible into the early post-dawn hours of Monday morning.
Generally, Monday will see improving conditions with developing sunshine over time as the cold front responsible for these showers and storms pushes through the region with drying conditions and highs in the low to mid 70s. Lows will drop into the mid 50s.
Tuesday starts off mostly sunny, but some clouds will move in by afternoon, so partly sunny on average with highs in the low to mid 70s. Lows drop into the low 60s.
Then we enter a period of atmospheric inclemency, unfortunately, which means more periods of showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday night through the rest of the week, and possibly into the weekend.
A zonal flow will be hurling frontal boundaries at New England during this period, and we’ll also see the resurgence of a western Atlantic Ocean high pressure system, which will also pump southwest, more humid flow into the region.
These two general features will combine to keep scattered showers and (at times) thunderstorms in the WMass region.
While a few showers are possible Tuesday night it’s really Wednesday into Thursday that poses another potential for strong to severe storms with highs in the low to mid 80s Wednesday and lows in the low to mid 60s.
Some storms could contain damaging wind gusts, as it looks like a sharp cold front will be pressing into this more humid air mass across the WMass region.
Thursday looks a touch cooler, with highs in the 75-80º range, but a few scattered showers are possible in the afternoon behind the front as an upper level system moves through with cooling air aloft, fostering rising air.
Friday into next weekend looks like highs remain in that 75-80º range, but more showers will be possible at times, and I will clarify timings and details as we get closer.
That’s it for now, hope you have a great day, and if you’d like to submit photos for possible inclusion in my 2022 Weather Calendar, please private message me and I can respond with more details, thanks!