MOST SHOWERS STAY SOUTH OF THE PIKE TODAY… CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPS INTO THE 70S… MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE WEEK, AND WE *MAY* BE SEEING A PATTERN CHANGE INTO DEEPER AUTUMN BY END OF THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND AS TEMPS COOL DOWN AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND CANADA… 9:05AM SUNDAY…
Good morning everybody, another day of gray doldrum-y conditions swings through the region today, with onshore flow from our high pressure system to our northeast, coupled now with a coastal storm south of New England that is trying to track north and deliver its rain shield overhead later today and tonight.
However, the overall upper level ridging in place and some energy well west of us tracking east-northeast will help direct our coastal low east and away from the region, preventing most of its rainy impacts from dampening our regional surfaces.
As such, only a few showers are expected north of the Pike today, with more scattered showers along and south of the Pike later this afternoon and overnight. Maybe a quarter inch could fall in northern CT, and especially northeast CT, but even that might be pushing it.
Highs today will reach the upper 50s to mid 60s with lows near 50º with mostly cloudy skies overnight.
For Monday, that system will swing away, and our flow will overcome the recent onshore flow we’ve had to endure this weekend, which will dry out the cloud cover more, and produce partly sunny skies on average with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s and lows in the upper 40s to low 50s with patchy fog possible late.
You can see in the attached dewpoint chart for this morning that a trough is building in the west along with our ridge in the east: very cold dewpoints west is signaling snow in the Rockies this week, whereas our easterly ridge will be promoting warm temps for us in the WMass region.
In fact, the Tuesday through Friday period looks mostly fair and certainly warm for mid-October standards, reaching highs in the low to mid 70s through the period.
We’ll see a mix of partly to mostly sunny days, and a frontal boundary looks to swing through by mid-week with a few showers possible sometime on Wednesday, to be refined in terms of timing/arrival/departure.
The main feature of interest is sometime in the Friday/Saturday timeframe, when a larger storm system may be tracking northwest of us and bringing a warm front / cold front combo that could produce more substantial rainfall, and the potential for a pattern shift to cooler weather overall by late in the weekend into the following week.
If this continues to trend, by the time we get into next week there’s a chance we could start to have a glimpse as to when first frost will be, because until then, it’s just warm and zero chance of those kinds of low temps down near the freezing mark.
Have a great day!