7:20AM-FRI: WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR NORTHWEST MA, SOUTHERN VT, AND SOUTHWEST NH… THE WARNING IS FOR BENNINGTON COUNTY WHERE 6-12+” OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH ADVISORIES INCLUDING 2-6″ FOR WESTERN FRANKLIN/HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES, THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES, WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY VT AND SOUTHWEST NH… RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON… SNOW AND RAIN ENDS BY MORNING… MORE LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING POSSIBLE… FAIR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK…
Good morning folks, I hope you had a lovely Thanksgiving Day with friends and family, or by yourself if you chose it or had nowhere to go (I’ve done both). Now, we have our first plowable snowfall event with potential for outages in northwest MA and southern VT to deal with later this afternoon and especially tonight into the pre-dawn hours of Saturday, with another chance for light snow to end the weekend #AndSnowItBegins.
But before we jump into the details, I’ve got a note from our local and delicious sponsor, #TandemBagelCo, who just opened a new location in West Springfield, MA.
A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR:
DHTWN Is Sponsored by Members, Patrons & Tandem Bagel Company: No matter the weather, Tandem Bagel is always there for you at several valley locations to make your mornings brighter! With bagels baked fresh daily, house-whipped cream cheese, coffee, and tons of lunch options, Tandem is the perfect quick stop for lunch, breakfast, or a coffee and bagel to go. Find them in Easthampton, Northampton, Hadley, Florence (and now West Springfield!), or use their super-streamlined online ordering tool by visiting their website: https://www.tandembagelco.com
DISCUSSION:
Good morning everybody, there’s lots to talk about, as some of us are going to busting out the shovels, snow blowers, and plows later tonight and by early Saturday morning with moderate to heavy snowfall moving into the region.
As I said yesterday, this system could break to the higher and more impactful side in terms of accumulating snow for the northwest MA and southern VT parts of the greater WMass region (which I define as S.VT, SW.NH, W.Mass, the Taconics of E.NY, C.Mass, and N.CT), and that indeed appears to be developing this morning.
Speaking of this morning, we’ve got rain showers moving through the region in advance of a strong cold front that is tracking east into central NY and will pass through the WMass region by early afternoon, and you’ll know when it does.
Light to calm winds are going to turn out of the west and gust 25-40mph through the afternoon and overnight tonight into Saturday.
A developing surface low center will track through southern VT, southern NH, and exit out into the Gulf of Maine, which brings the cold front through and the resultant cold air.
Behind that, a developing mid/upper low with strong atmospheric spin, moisture and lift (i.e. rising air motion) will be swing into the region, and will increase precipitation in Taconics, Litchfields, Berkshires and southern VT. When combined with the cold air, rain will mix with and change to snow in these areas above 1000 feet at first.
A strong lake effect and upslope snow setup will lurch into gear, and snow will fall moderately to heavily at times by later this afternoon, this evening and tonight, with 1″ per hour snowfall rates possible in parts of northwest MA and southern VT above 1500 feet in elevation.
These snow showers will spill into the rest of the Pioneer Valley of MA and CT and be enhanced as they rise back up into northeast CT and the highlands of CMass including eastern Franklin County, southwest NH and Worcester County, where 1-3″ of snow could accumulate by morning.
1-3″ is also possible in the southern Berkshires, central/southern Taconics, western Hampden County, and northern Litchfield County CT.
Elsewhere, a coating to 1″ is possible in the valley from Greenfield south to Hartford in low elevation areas of WMass and north-central CT below 1000 feet.
In the Winter Weather Advisory regions of central/northern Berkshires, western Franklin/Hampshire Counties, northern Taconics, southwest NH/Cheshire County, and western Windham County VT, 2-6″ looks probable as of this writing, above 1000 feet.
Finally, in Bennington County where the Winter Storm Warning has been hoisted, 6-12″ looks likely above 1500 feet, and some areas could see over a foot!
I am concerned for power outages in parts of northwest MA and southern VT that reach or exceed 5″ of snow, as it will likely be on the wetter side, at least earlier in the night, before colder air works in and turns it more powdery and fluffy.
Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 20s, so where ever there’s precip, it’s going to be snowing, folks, and it’ll be blustery with, again, west winds gusting 25-40mph, so wind chills will be in the high singles to teens region-wide! Winter!
Any snow showers quit by mid morning Saturday, which will turn into the coldest, most wintry day we’ve had to date with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s due in part to fresh snow pack and cold air advection, with continued west winds gusting over 30mph at times. Lows will be near 20º.
For Sunday, clouds increase again ahead of an Alberta Clipper system that is unlikely to become too amplified. This should end up just providing a widespread light snowfall capable of putting down another coating to maybe an inch across the region by Sunday late afternoon and night with highs in the 30s Sunday and lows in the 20s.
After that system passes us by, it looks like we have a fairly fair weather week to look forward to with highs in the 30s and low 40s.
We’ll expand on that timeframe later, but first, we need to get through tonight, which is going to bring the plows, shovels, groans and joy squeals for folks across the land, as we New Englanders prepare for what will be our first accumulating snow of the incoming cold season, especially above 1000 feet in elevation.
Have a day, and stay tuned, as I will keep you updated during this event!