UPSLOPE ELEVATION-DEPENDENT SNOW HAS FORMED AND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE TACONICS, BERKSHIRES, LITCHFIELDS, AND SVT IN RESPONSE TO INCOMING UPPER LOW PRESSURE… PLOWABLE SNOW TONIGHT FOR SOME IN THESE AREAS INCLUDING SOME WESTERN HILLTOWNS… ANOTHER LIGHTER ACCUMULATION AREA EXPECTED EAST OF THE CT RIVER IN TOLLAND AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST CT, CMASS, AND SOUTHWEST NH… WINDS TO PICK UP TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW… (6:15pm Fri)
Good evening everybody, first of all, thank you for all the condition and travel reports today, as well as the videos and photos!
It’s wild to see such a dizzying and varying amount of weather across southwestern New England today! Rain, sleet, snow, drizzle, cloudy. Hello, March!
I have created sub-sections below, so scroll below if you wish, read your sections, read the whole thing, it’s a freaking party of pontification!
SNOWFALL TODAY
I’ve heard reports of Mt. Snow receiving at least 5″ today. Other reports from you have shown we’ve received about 1-3″ of snowfall, generally speaking in the western hilltowns, Berkshires, eastern Franklin County, easternmost Hampden County, southwest Worcester County, and other high terrain areas.
CURRENT CONDITIONS
Temps are currently in the low 30s in the Taconics, some parts of the Berkshires, SVT, western hilltowns, and down into NWCT.
As you can see in the attached map, our storm is now in the Gulf of Maine and has dropped down to a 978MB low, a strong storm!
You can see the northwest-oriented flow into our region in the attached marked-up satellite image.
The incoming upper low is “reaching out” and combining with the upper low pressure connected to our stacked low over the Gulf of Maine.
As this is happening, new lift is being produced over the region and combining with remnant moisture.
This is generating and will continue to generate snowfall of varying intensity tonight across the region – moderate to heavy across the high terrain, and lighter in the CT River Valley.
WIND AND SNOW = SOME POWER OUTAGES
The gradient between low pressure over New England and high pressure off to our west will cause northwest winds to gust tonight and into the first half of tomorrow 30-45mph, with some 50mph gusts possible.
Again, some power outages are possible where these wind gusts combine with 5+ inches of heavy wet snow hanging on every surface.
SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN THE SAME
As I indicated this morning, I think that by Saturday morning, 1-3″ is likely in the lower elevations of the western hilltowns, northern Litchfields, southern Berkshires, southern Taconics, with 3-6″ in the higher elevations of these areas. Some areas in western Franklin county may exceed 6″.
Also, we can expect 3-6″ in the lower elevations northern Berkshires, northern Taconics and SVT, with 6-12″ in the higher elevations of these towns, with some areas going over a foot, especially near Mt. Snow, Stratton, Bromley etc
I also believe that a coating to 3″ is likely for easternmost Hampden County, Worcester County, southwest NH, Tolland County (where a new Winter Weather Advisory has been posted), and Windham County CT. Some 4″ amounts can’t be ruled out, especially for Tolland County which will catch that second upslope rise tonight.
These are additional accumulations to what was received earlier today (anywhere between 1-5″, with some coatings).
Some valley locations may see a coating to an inch, and some nothing.
THE VALLEY SUCKS FOR SNOW (EDUCATION)
Oh woe is the valley for snow lovers!
I call it the Western Mass Snow Lovers’ Triangle of Disappointment, or WMSLTOD, which is the stupidest acronym ever created.
We should set up a meetup group and cry together, it’s ridiculous!
It happens because west or northwest winds blow moist air up over the Taconics, Litchfields, western hills, Berks and Greens, condensing the air, allowing it to snow out more in these areas.
Then, this moist air “downslopes” off of that elevation, and sinks into the valley. A sinking mass of air is a drying mass of air, so the precip dries and lightens up.
Then, this moist air rises a second time in northeast CT and easternmost parts of WMass into CMass, though not as robustly, and creates a lighter upslope of echo of lighter snows.
This up/down/up effect is also called “shadowing”.
That is what is happening tonight into early tomorrow morning.
IT ENDS TOMORROW
By mid to late Saturday morning we should be improving, save for SVT and the northern Berkshires/Taconics which should quit by noon or so. Winds will gust into the rest of the afternoon, but start to lighten up.
REPORTS PLEASE!
Please post your reports of travel and conditions below, and I will post a night time update by 10pm this evening.
SUNDAY IS BEYOND THE WEEKEND PICK
Sunny, mild, 50s, calm, dry, we win. #MicDrop
Chilly early next week with snow and rain showers Monday, then how about some 60s by the end of next week? Yes please!
PEP TALK
Hang in there. You’re tough, kid. I know you got what it takes!
Stick with me, kid, we’re goin’ places, for cripes sakes!!!
Ok, have a great night, and be safe in your travels, especially over the hilly and mountainous terrain!
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A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES, NORTHERN TACONICS, AND SVT THIS MORNING, POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WESTERN FRANKLIN/HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES AS THE COLUMN COOLS AND HEAVY PRECIP FLIPS THESE AREAS TO SNOW… THEN WE BECOME SHOWERY LATER TODAY… HEAVY SNOW RESUMES IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TONIGHT WITH UPSLOPE SNOWS… NW WINDS GUST OVER 40MPH… WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE…. (6:35am Friday)
SUMMARY (DISCUSSION BELOW)
–Moderate to heavy rain fell overnight
–Some have mixed with or flipped to snow, including Worcester (1000 feet in elevation)
–Temps are in the low to upper 30s
–Highs will be in the upper 30s to low/mid 40s
–A period of moderate to heavy snow is possible in mesoscale banding over SVT, northern Berks/Taconics, and possibly northwestern hilltowns (Plainfield up to Rowe)
–Snow may accumulate up to 2-5″ by noon if banding now west of Albany, NY can track east enough
–Then we see rain and snow showers today, with breaks in the action
–Upper low digs southeast into New England tonight, combines with western flow of coastal low pressure, cooling temps aloft, and mountain enhancement to produce heavy wet snow overnight into Sat. morning
–By Saturday morning, 1-3″ possible in lower elevations of the western hilltowns, northern Litchfields, southern Berkshires, southern Taconics, with 3-6″ in the higher elevations of these areas. Some areas in western Franklin county may exceed 6″
–3-6″ in the lower elevations northern Berkshires, northern Taconics and SVT, with 6-12″ in the higher elevations of these towns, with some areas going over a foot, especially near Mt. Snow, Stratton, Bromley etc
–Northwest winds gust 30-50mph tonight into tomorrow
–Some power outages are possible with combined heavy wet snow and strong wind gusts
–Whiteout conditions possible producing hazardous travel in the high terrain at times overnight into very early Saturday morning
DISCUSSION
Good morning everybody, moderate to heavy rain has fallen overnight and continues this morning.
Please report your conditions below! I have heard that Worcester flipped to all snow this morning, and so high terrain areas of Worcester County, southwest NH, WMass, and SVT all could see mixes with snow, or changes to snow this morning before precip lulls out for a bit today, and/or becomes more showery in scattered fashion until tonight.
CURRENT CONDITIONS
Stacked low pressure (i.e. the low is at the same point from surface to two miles up) is east of southern Jersey and will track northeast and spawn secondary cyclogenesis near Cape Cod and the Island this morning. This low pressure complex will then lift northeast into the Gulf of Maine and southeast Maine.
HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
As you can see in the attached radar still, what is called a “deformation zone” has formed west of the Capital Region near Albany, NY. This the northwest quadrant of a maturing cyclone where converging air creates heavy banding of rain and snow.
This deformation zone is expected to track east as the cyclone does the same, and may get far enough east to flip any rain to moderate to heavy snow in the central/northern Taconics, the northern Berkshires, and SVT into the late morning.
Should that occur, 1-2″ per hour snowfall rates are possible and 2-6″ of snow could fall, largely above 1000 feet, and especially above 1500 feet in elevation.
Meanwhile, we’re raining in most valley locations, and this should continue.
After that heavy bands does its work into late this morning, we should see showery weather at times of rain or snow depending on location or elevation.
SNOWY AND WINDY FOR MOUNTAIN FOLK TONIGHT
By tonight, an upper level low that is now nosing south-southeast into Lake Huron, and ultimately into Lake Ontario and northern New York, will merge with the western envelope of our cyclonic flow over the region connected to low pressure in the Gulf of Maine.
This energy, along with moist air and forced lift by the presence of our western hills and mountains will produce moderate to at times heavy upslope snowfall over the higher terrain of SVT, the central/northern Taconics, and the northern Berkshires and northwestern hilltowns of Franklin and Hampshire.
The southern Taconics, southern Berkshires, western Hampden, along with the higher terrain of Cheshire County NH, Worcester County and even down into eastermost Hampden and northeastern CT will see a lesser version of this process.
AMOUNTS
By Saturday morning, 1-3″ possible in lower elevations of the western hilltowns, northern Litchfields, southern Berkshires, southern Taconics, with 3-6″ in the higher elevations of these areas. Some areas in western Franklin county may exceed 6″
3-6″ in the lower elevations northern Berkshires, northern Taconics and SVT, with 6-12″ in the higher elevations of these towns, with some areas going over a foot, especially near Mt. Snow, Stratton, Bromley etc
SOME COATINGS FOR THE VALLEY POSSIBLE
The Connecticut River Valley itself will be sandwiched in between downsloping flow (sinking, subsident air) which is a drying mechanisms, but some lighter snow is possible even here with coatings in spots, maybe an inch.
Wind out of the northwest will gust 30-50mph, and power outages will be possible in the high terrain above 1000 feet, especially above 1500 feet.
This will all continue into tomorrow morning, and as the low pulls further away and our upper low moves through, snowfall should quit by noon in most spots, except for perhaps the highest elevations of SVT.
The rest of Saturday will be a blustery, cold day with highs in the mid to upper 30s and lows near 20 degrees.
Sunday is sweet with highs in the low 50s and sunny conditions.
We get colder again next week, with light snow possible Monday night into Tuesday.
Thereafter we look to establish an even stronger Spring flow, with temps possibly in the 60s by next weekend.
Hang in there folks, and have a great day, post reports below, update tonight, take care!
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