MAJOR COASTAL SNOW STORM WITH GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE LOOKS MORE PROBABLE FOR SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY WITH SUBSTANTIAL MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IMPACTS… BUT FIRST WE DEAL WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TOMORROW MORNING, QUITTING BY AROUND NOON… GIVEN THE COLD AIR EXPECTED ALL NEXT WEEK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WINTRY WEATHER BY NEXT WEEKEND, SPRING IS NOT SPRUNGING YET, MY FRIENDS… (3/1/19, 7pm, Friday)…

Good evening everybody, we’ve got two accumulating snow events on the way, and for many, a major snowstorm continues to look more and more likely for Sunday evening into Monday noon.

With very cold air around next week, and another chance for snow by Saturday, there’s lots to talk about!

Winter Weather Advisories continue for northern CT, CMass, Hampden County and eastern and central Hampshire County until mid day tomorrow.

COMPREHENSIVE MAJOR STORM UPDATE TOMORROW AM…
I will be up early tomorrow morning producing a comprehensive report about Sunday night’s storm and will post it by about 8am or 8:30am. This report will serve as the final update (unless I do another brief late night tonight, which I might) before our snow moves in before sunrise tomorrow morning, so stay tuned for that morning detailed and complete update.

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TONIGHT INTO SUNRISE SAT. MORNING
For tonight, we will continue to see clouds increasing and lows will drop into the upper teens in the high terrain and low 20s in valley locations of WMass, southern CMass, and down into northern CT.

SNOW ONSET AND DEPARTURE
Snow arrives between 4am to 7am from northern CT up into SVT/SWNH, and quits by late morning in the northern areas and by around noon to 1pm east of I-91 and into CMass. Highs will reach the low 30s on Saturday.

STORM #1 SETUP
Low pressure continues to develop down near the Carolinas this evening, and it’s looking quite healthy at the moment.

I’ve seen some outlets calling for 3-6″ or 4-6″ across the region, but at the moment I’m not seeing that. As you can see in the attached map, there is a lot of modeling support that tracks this low about 100 miles south of Nantucket, possibly a bit further south.

While it does have good moisture with it, it’s fast-moving, and there looks to be a sharp northern cutoff for measurable precipitation as you can see in the attached maps.

Therefore, I am going to stick with my belief that we’ll see a coating to 2″ from SVT/SWNH down into Franklin County, Berkshire County, and possibly including the western hilltowns of Hampshire and Franklin Counties. Some places in SVT down into extreme northwest MA may only see a coating, and some even nothing.

For northwestern CT (Litchfield county) I think we’ll see more like 1-3″, and for the rest of northern CT, all of Hampden County, central and eastern Hampshire County, and all of Worcester County we should see 2-5″ of snowfall. I could see some 6″ amounts in northeast CT or southern CMass towards Worcester.

Our storm system tracks to our south and keeps on trucking, leaving us here in WMass and CMass with a mostly cloudy day.

Another northern stream disturbance floats through tomorrow evening with more snow showers, which may produce additional coatings in some spots and close to an inch possible in the high terrain areas above 1000 feet.

After these scattered snow showers pass through west to east, we will enter a lull between storms, with lows dropping into the low 20s.

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MAJOR SNOWSTORM PROBABLE LATE SUNDAY
We’ll start off our Sunday with partly sunny skies, but they will quickly cloud over. Highs should crest into the low to mid 30s.

Meanwhile, low pressure will have tracked southeast out of the Four Corners region of the western U.S., and be passing north of the Gulf of Mexico.

On Sunday, our storm will round the southern bend of a trough of lower pressures in the central part of the U.S.

This will allow the storm to pick up ample moisture as it taps the Gulf on its way northeast toward the DelMarVa Peninsula with an eventual exit expected off of the eastern U.S. coastline.

When our system exits said coastline, it will tap the western Atlantic, and already be on a more amplified, northeasterly track, which we have NOT seen this year, really.

Most storms this season have been flat trackers (i.e. zonal, or west to east), or inland cutters, but this one will have even more northerly amplitude to it compared to Saturday’s system, but should still pass to our south somewhere over Martha’s Vineyard.

Typically, you need this more meridional (i.e. more south to north) track in order to get more moisture loaded up in these mid-latitude cyclones before they ram into New England.

To be clear, however, this storm will not be some wrapped up, super bombing out, wound-tight Nor’easter kicking up 30-40mph wind gusts in WMass with blowing an drifting snow.

Nay.

Nor will it be slowing down to a lumbering pace, doing a sit-n-spin off of Martha’s Vineyard and dumping snow on us for 24+hours.

Nuh uh.

But I”m here to say that none of that matters.

Yes, it’s fast moving, yes it’s not very strong, but there will be enough cold air to entrain into the system, plenty of moisture, a single storm system, and a more southerly track that keeps on the cold side of the storm (for once!) that a major, plowable snowfall is looking more probable.

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Unless something drastic happens with tomorrow’s storm system in terms of it producing a remnant flow that bucks the anticipated current, I think this one’s coming folks!

WETTER CONSISTENCY TYPE SNOW
This storm is not going to produce a sugary light-as-a-feather crystals that we dealt with yesterday morning.

It’s going to be more on the powdery side the farther north and west you go, but heavier and wetter the further south and east you go, where some power outages will be possible, if enough wind is realized toward the mix line.

Did I mention the word “mix”?

MIX LINE POSSIBLE
Yes, the mix line!! Oh how I love the mix line.

MIX LINE MIX LINE MIX LINE! OMG, I couldn’t deal unless I had some mixing to talk about.

MIX MIX MIX MIX!!!

#DHTWNIsLosingIt #NotReally

We will simply have to watch the track, as the bust potential with this system is that the storm could track a little more northwest. This could bring sleet into eastern Hampden County into CMass, and northeast CT, but I will have to refine this as we get closer.

SNOW AMOUNTS
I think we are going to see a general 6-12″ of snow from this system, that will begin around dinner time on Sunday evening, and end around noon time on Monday.

If I had to pinpoint further, I’d bet on a 4-8″ snowfall in northeast CT, eastern Hampden County and southern half of Worcester County, with 6-10″ north and west of there, and some 10-14″ jackpot amounts in western Hampshire and western Franklin County.

Cold but fair weather is expected all next week, and more snow is possible next Saturday, so keep it tuned in here all weekend into next week, and I will keep you updated on the latest and greatest.

I hope you have a great night, and if you haven’t yet had a chance to contribute to my 2019 Annual Support Drive to help ensure this work endures, you can click below for secure options by Check, PayPal or Debit/Credit Card.

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TODAY’S DATE: Friday, March 1, 2019

TERRESTRIAL:
HIGH AIR TEMPS: Highs should rise into the low 30s in the Berkshires/Taconics/Litchfields, western hilltowns, SVT/SWNH, and N. Worcester County, while we reach the mid 30s for the Pioneer Valley floor down into northern CT and in S. Worcester County.

LOW AIR TEMPS: Lows should drop into the upper teens to low 20s region-wide

SKIES: Mostly cloudy with snow showers this morning along and south of the Pike down into CT, then partly sunny as the day wears on

WINDS: Light south wind

NWS ALERTS: None, but light snow in northern CT and southern parts of WMass could produce coatings in a few areas

CELESTIAL:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 6:25am this morning
–OUR STAR WILL SET AT: 5:40pm this evening
–OUR MOON WILL SET AT: 1:05pm this afternoon
–OUR MOON WILL RISE AT: 4:21am tomorrow morning
–MOON PHASE: Waning Crescent

SUMMARY:
–Good morning folks of fineness, I am going to broadbrush our impacts over the next week in bulleted form to get you out the door this morning
–For this morning, snow is falling in northwest CT and up into the southern Berkshires as far north as Pittsfield
–There is a lot of dry air to the east of this shield, and the wave responsible for this light snow is weak
–However, some coatings are possible this morning in N.CT and southern parts of WMass
–Otherwise, this wave will move along as the morning wears on, with a partly sunny day ahead
–For tonight, any breaks in the cloud deck fill right back in as a more substantial storm takes shape off our east coast to the south overnight
–We are dry tonight, but snow moves back into the region by the pre-dawn hours of Saturday morning
–I think we should see a coating to 2″ from SVT/SWNH down to the MassPike, and west of I-91
–The area both east of I-91 and south of the Pike in north-central and northeast CT, Hampden County, and southern Worcester County should see 2-4″, with even more the further south and east you go
–Tomorrow morning’s snow generally lasts from 4am to noon before it quits, and leaves us with a pretty winter scene and a mostly cloudy day with highs in the low to mid 30s
–Clouds continue Saturday night with some additional snow showers moving through with a northern stream disturbance. This could lay a few coatings down north of the Rt. 2 corridor
–Sunday starts off nice, with partly sunny skies and highs in the mid 30s, but clouds build by end of the day
–A potent, fast-moving storm system with Gulf of Mexico origins (i.e. juicy) will make northeast beeline from the Deep South straight to Nantucket the way it looks now
–This will bring a substantial snowfall to our region, I believe, before midnight Sunday into Monday morning
–There is room for change in this part of the forecast, but that’s how it looks now
–Cold weather next week, with more winter weather possible by the following weekend

Ok folks, that about does it for now, I hope you have a great day, and if you haven’t yet had a chance to contribute to my DHTWN Annual Support Drive for 2019, you can do so securely by clicking the link below (Check, PayPal and Card options). Thank you.
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