SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE CATSKILLS AND REACHING THE BERKSHIRES BETWEEN 9-10PM… THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN… FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN THREATS, THOUGH SOME AREAS MAY STILL SEE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS… HAIL IS LESS LIKELY… 8:15pm Mon…

Good evening everybody, the most severe storms have passed into Rutland County VT and points north and east erlier today, with another severe cell tracking into or just west of Rutland, VT as I type.

Northern Bennington County (towns like Rupert) got grazed with some showers and rumbles of thunder, but the main action stayed north of southern VT, and the rest of us have been humid, but cooling, rain-free and breezy earlier during the afternoon.

So now that the isolated (a/k/a discrete) cells which tend to bring the spinny things have passed, we now turn to the squall line pushing toward the Hudson River Valley of eastern NY.

This line is already showing signs of weakening, and we don’t have super strong wind shear, or amazingly steep mid-level lapse rates to keep the updrafts cranking given that surface heating is waning quickly, along with low level lapse rates.

But, it’s still quite humid, and so we will see some showers, downpours and thunderstorms between 9pm-midnight from west to east (from the Taconics to the Worcester Metro region).

There is one part of the line that still has some kick to it (with a bit of a bow echo look, meaning an area of stronger wind), and is producing frequent lightning, and has some straight-line wind signature to it on radar, so that could cause some isolated damage into western Litchfield County and the Berkshires, if at all.

The bow echo would most likely move into Pittsfield or towns north of there.

I will keep an eye on things and update a little later, but fortunately this isn’t transpiring at 5pm, or else we might be talking about a much larger severe weather threat.

Right now, it looks like the SPC could have left the risk categories where they were at the start of the day.

Hopefully I won’t have to eat my words later, but I’ll be the first to admit it if I have to.

Regardless, if you hear thunder tonight, don’t be wandering around outside in it.

#BeWickedSmaht #WhenThunderRoarsGoIndoors
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HOISTED FOR ALL OF SVT… MAY BE EXPANDED INTO BERKSHIRE COUNTY LATER… THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS RAISED THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER EAST INTO THE PIONEER VALLEY… THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A TORNADO THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERNMOST BERKSHIRES/TACONICS AND BENNINGTON COUNTY VT… 2:05PM MONDAY…

Good afternoon everybody, temps have already risen well into the 80s, with a few folks in Hampshire and Franklin Counties in the low terrain flirting with the 90º mark.

Dewpoints are very high, having risen to between 65-74º in many places, so there is plenty of moisture available, and instability developing thanks to the northwestern moisture flank of T.S. Claudette, now tracking northeast and away from our region to our south.

Some isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly north of the Rt. 2 corridor in NW.MA and S.VT on north this mid to later afternoon, and one could be strong to severe.

But it’s the 8pm-11pm timeframe that I’m most concerned about, given that we’ll be so close with either overlapping remnant shear and steeper lapse rates with high moisture and turning in the atmosphere at the low to mid levels.

A supercellular severe thunderstorm could form and produce damaging local wind gusts and/or large hail, with the best chance of that in the northern Berkshires, western Franklin County and SVT.

However, anywhere in the northwest CT, WMass, SVT and SWNH region could see strong to severe storms during this time.

I’m hopeful that even though the SPC pushed an increased chance for severe storms more easterly into the Pioneer Valley, hopefully the fact that storms won’t get here until just after sunset will help tamp down any serious impacts from wind or hail.

Torrential rainfall is expected in some of these given how warm the low to mid levels of the atmosphere are today, and we can’t rule out an isolated tornado in southwest VT, though a better chance exists in northeast NY and central and northern VT, so if you know folks up that way, let them know to pay attention to their local outlet.

Enjoy your afternoon, and I will update before things get active around here…
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LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN BERKSHIRES-TACONICS, WESTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY, FRNAKLIN COUNTY, SVT AND SWNH… HOT AND HUMID TODAY BUT DRY… HIT OR MISS ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A HEAVIER/STEADER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION… DRIER/PLEASANT WED-FRI, THEN MORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HUMIDITY RESURGES… SUMMAHTIME… 7:05AM MONDAY…

Toppathamornin to you! We’re here, we’re breathing, we’re doing our face yoga, we’re drinking our hot beverage of choice, maybe we’re even drinking our room temperature or cold beverage of choice, it’s a free-for-all manic Monday morning, and it’s high time we get with the program, get down to business, make it so, engage, and set the gearshift for the high gear of our soul!

It’s amazing what a pint of fresh lemon water can do to a man upon waking, and now to the weather!

SUMMARY
–We’re starting off with muggy conditions, as dew points are in the 65-70º range, and will climb a bit today
–Patchy fog has been relegated to parts of the Berkshires, and also in southwest Worcester County down into NE.CT where it’s dense in spots with half-mile visibility
–Any fog burns off as our star rises.
–These are our peak light moments, folks, so if you’re a darkness detester, I’d consider using your forebrain to dial up the Gratitude Levels for Light (GLLs) and soak it in, as this is your moment!
–For today, we’ll have partly sunny skies at times, mostly sunny others with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s.
–It’ll be humid, but rain-free until at least around dinner time
–A cold front draped into the Midwest is pressing east, as is an upper level trough that will swing through the Great Lakes and southeastern Canada
–As these features track toward our region later, clusters and lines of showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, will head towards the Litchfields, Berkshires and Bennington County in southwest VT
–They will be supported by instability, strong wind shear, and plenty of moisture, popped skyward with cold frontal lift
–But some of those parameters will be weaker over southwest New England along and east of the I-91 corridor
–So these cells will be weakening on approach, but they could maintain strength, especially from Pittsfield to Worthington northward through the central/northern Berkshires, northwest hilltowns (and into much of Franklin County), southern VT and parts of southwest NH
–Arrival time is roughly between 7-11pm, we’ll have to see how fast the front tracks today
–Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible, but it’s more likely than not that these storms will weaken to sub-severe levels, but I’ll be watching it
–Lows tonight drop into the low to mid 60s with patchy fog late, and some isolated showers possible after midnight
–For Tuesday, an isolated shower here and there lasts into afternoon with cooler high temps in the upper 60s to upper 70s, and continued high humidity
–By mid to late afternoon the cold front moves toward the region, and should produce a line of steadier, heavier, more widespread showers that passes through during late afternoon to early evening
–Showers abate and exit Tuesday night, and lows drop into the 45-50º range, chilly!
–Interestingly, some “cold” fronts drop temps behind them, others drop humidity behind them, and some do both
–Our two cold fronts (one tonight and one tomorrow) will drop temps tonight, and then drop humidity tomorrow night, respectively
–For Wednesday through Friday, high pressure builds into the region, and we’ll dry out with low to mid 70s for highs Wednesday, and mid 70s to low 80s Thursday and Friday
–Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s Wednesday night, low to mid 50s Thursday night and low 60s Friday night as flow turns from northwest to west to southwest/southerly through this period
–A weak system off of the Carolinas may float a few scattered showers on Friday into northern CT, but that remains to be seen
–What looks likely, though, is another upper level trough swinging into the Great Lakes and pushing a frontal boundary to our west, which will help to focus moist flow into New England and higher humidity over the weekend
–This means partly sunny skies on average, highs at least in the low 80s, humid conditions, and scattered afternoon instability showers and thunderstorms, which may last into early next week

Have a great day!!