UPDATE: STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CT THIS LATER AFTERNOON ALONG A MOISTURE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR DOWN THAT WAY… ALONG/NORTH OF THE MA/CT BORDER WE WAIT UNTIL AFTER 7PM GENERALLY…4:45pm SAT…

Good afternoon folks, we have some showers, downpours and thunderstorms that have recently formed in southern Hartford, Tolland and especially Windham Counties in CT.

These are firing along a line of increased humidity down there with dewpoints in the 60s and low 70s, whereas in WMass we’re in the 50s, with even some 40s in Franklin County where it remains drier!

So expect wet conditions down there thorugh dinner time (generally along/east of I-91 in that part of CT), with mostly dry conditions in WMass, northwest CT, CMass and SVT/SWNH.

However, by about 7pm or so, showers could redevelop, and we’ll be watching a large cluster of showers and thunderstorms out over western NY and central PA that are just south of a cold front. This cluster will be drifting east-northeast toward southern New England, and should produce more scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region tonight, with the heaviest cells expected again south of the Pike where best combo of moisture, instability and wind shear will exist.

I will update again later this evening once we see how that activity is shaping up as it approaches and reaches our longitude.

Enjoy the rest of your afternoon…
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HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS A BIT TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS POSSIBLE BETWEEN LATE AFTERNOON AND BEFORE MIDNIGHT… BEST CHANCE FOR A STRONG STORM IS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE… A BIT DRIER AND NICER TOMORROW, THEN HUMIDITY BUILDS BACK ON MONDAY AND PEAKS TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT PASSES INTO THE REGION WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS… MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK IS ANOTHER DRY-DOWN/COOL-DOWN, BUT HUMIDITY ROARS BACK WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS NEXT WEEKEND… SATURDAY 7:55AM…

Good morning everybody, hopefully you got a decent drink from showers overnight where you live. Those have passed by to the east, although a shower may move through parts of SVT before drying out.

A warm frontal passage brings highs well into the 80s today and humidity will be ticking up into the low to mid 60s, which will create some instability across the region.

As far as getting strong thunderstorms to combine with this moisture, instability, and pretty strong wind shear ahead of the incoming cold front, it’s going to be tough through the mid to late afternoon, though an isolated shower IS possible after noon.

This is because the cold front that provides unstable/moist air parcels the needed nudge skyward to generate stronger storms is going to be well west until later tonight.

So what, Dave?

Well, that means that the timing is going to be sub-optimal, shall we say, and will also delay whatever showers and thunderstorms that do develop until late afternoon/early evening through about midnight.

The best chance for stronger storms exists along and south of the Pike, and remember that these showers and storms will be isolated to scattered, so not everybody gets hit. Hail and gusty winds are possible, as a low chance for a marginally severe storm exists.

Activity wanes tonight, and lows will drop into the upper 50s to low 60s with clearing late.

For Sunday, we get a brief one-day decrease in humidity as high pressure sails through the region like a transient dream. Mostly sunny skies will result and highs will rise into the 85-90º range for a gorgeous first day of Astronomical Summer as the Solstice passes through our lives – peak light!! Soak it up peeps!

Lows will drop into the low to mid 60s, but dewpoints will be rising overnight, which will create some patchy advection fog in spots.

For Monday, high pressure gets east of us, and turns our flow southwesterly, and humidity resurges into the region.

It will be the hottest day over the next 7-10, with highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s under partly sunny skies.

There will be enough instability that a few isolated showers or storms could form, but these would be the slow moving pulse variety, so severe weather is not expected.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Claudette (which can barely even be called a TS, it’s so disorganized and messy, and now over land) will be guided east-northeast to the Mid-Atlantic coastline and the incoming cold front Monday night and Tuesday will pull it as far northwest as The Benchmark (80 miles south of Nantucket).

So while the actual rain shield and convection from Claudette will only bring rains to the Cape and Islands as it looks now (with some wind gusts to 30-40mph), it may help strengthen the rain shield associated with the cold front, so that’s something to watch.

Tuesday looks quite rainy at the moment, with highs expected to reach the 70s to low 80s, with lows in the low 50s as cooler and drier northwestelry flow whooses into the region behind the front.

Wednesday through Friday (once again!) looks sunnier, cooler, drier with highs in the 70s on Wednesday and mid 70s to low 80s Thursday and Friday, with lows in the 50s.

Then we do it all over again with humidity surging back for the weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.

Have a great day!