Good evening everybody, an active bout of weather is on our doorstep, and closer for some than others this evening.
To start, we have a strong thunderstorm that continues to dump heavy rain over the same general area, which is south-central Franklin County and north-central Hampshire County, west of I-91 along the east slopes of the Berkshires.
Torrential rain is falling, and because the storm is fairly stationary, street flooding is a concern as is small stream flooding, so folks in flood-prone areas should have some awareness.
Luckily, this storm and other showers should die down with time as the sun sets.
As we start to turn to Tropical Storm Fay, please note the attached satellite photo… not only can you see Fay taking shape to our south, but you can see the thunderstorm over WMass, and its shadow to the northeast as the sun is going down!!!! Pretty cool!!
TROPICAL STORM FAY IMPACTS
As for newly-named Fay (which has top winds of 45mph), it will be guided due north by a an upper level trough to our west.
The exact track is still totally certain, but it appears it will track somewhere between the Hudson River of eastern NY and the Connecticut River of western MA. If I was a betting man, I’d say this storm probably tracks to the west of the Berkshires somewhere in eastern NY, but we shall see.
Where ever it does track, that is where the heaviest rains will fall, on the order of 2-4″.
Otherwise, we can expect .75″ to 2″ of rain from this system, and winds could gust out of the southeast from 20-40mph at times, maybe a touch higher in the high elevations tomorrow night as the storm reaches our latitude (it will be a fast mover).
We also cannot rule out a quick tornado or two in the spiral rain bands to the east of the low center that will be rotating south-southeast to north-northwest tomorrow evening and early on Saturday.
By Saturday afternoon, showers should become more widely scattered as the storm lifts north, but an isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible within a super tropical air mass that will overspread the region on Saturday, with dew points in the low to mid 70s! Super humid!
TEMPERATURES
–Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s with patchy fog late
–Highs tomorrow will reach the upper 70s to mid 80s
–Lows will dip into the mid 60s to low 70s Friday night
–Highs Saturday will reach the low to mid 80s
–Lows will be in the 60s Saturday night
Ok, that covers it for now, I just wanted to update you about the storm this evening, the Flash Flood Watches, and the expected impacts from Tropical Storm Fay tomorrow evening, night and on Saturday.
Have a great evening…
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[HOT AND HUMID TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY RELEGATED TO THE WESTERN HILLTOWNS, BERKSHIRES, LITCHFIELDS, SVT AND TACONICS, BUT ANY OF US COULD SEE A SHOWER, WHILE MOST OF US STAY DRY… CLOUDS INCREASE TOMORROW WITH COOLER TEMPS AND CONTINUED MUGGY CONDITIONS… SHOWERS ARRIVE BY AFTERNOON AS OUR TROPICAL LOW CENTER TRACKS THROUGH AND SOMEWHERE BETWEEN EASTERN NY TO THE QUABBIN RESERVOIR… EXPECT PERIODS OF GUSTY SHOWERS, DOWNPOURS, AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK/WEAK TORNADO FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY… SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK CALMER, BUT A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EXISTS FOR EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE DAY’S HEATING… MUGGY THROUGHOUT… 7:30AM THURSDAY]
Good morning everybody, it is very humid out there with near saturation of moisture in the air that is producing fog in the Berkshires, parts of the CT River Valley and in other regional areas, along with some low clouds.
These clouds and fog will burn off with the rising July sun angle this morning, and then we will be off to the races in the Heat Department, with highs rising into the upper 80s to low 90s. With dewpoint temps in the upper 60s to low 70s, the heat index will rise into the mid to upper 90s, so while Heat Advisories aren’t posted for our region, if you have respiratory issues, take it easy out there today and stay hydrated, which people should be doing anywhere given the Covid-19 situation.
By afternoon, substantial instability will develop to support convection (i.e. isolated shower and thundershower development), but without any forcing present (i.e. triggers like a cold front to initiate and force the upward rising of air) and weak wind fields, any activity that forms should do so around mountainous and hilly areas due to orographic uplift and differential heating.
So expect a few hilltown poppers, as I like to call them, and some torrential rains could form in some of these pulse-type cells.
These will die down at night, and lows will bottom out in the 65-70º range with patchy fog late.
Any morning sunshine will be covered up by incoming clouds from our semi-tropical system to the south that will be riding up the east coast. Highs will reach the low to mid 80s with very humid conditions.
Again, track is uncertain still, but in general, it should ride up and into the WMass region, bringing scattered showers, downpours and thunderstorms by the afternoon, with the most rainy activity overnight and into the first part of Saturday.
This won’t be a super organized system, and so periods of showers/storms are expected.
Some storms may contain gusty winds, torrential rainfall, and there is a low chance that a quick tornado could form.
We’re expecting more like 1-3″ of rain from this system, with most folks seeing 1-2″ at this point. Lows will be near 70º Friday night.
Saturday starts off showery and thundery at times, and highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s.
Shower and storm activity should relax a bit later in the afternoon, but we could see scattered showers during the evening and night before the storm gains enough latitude to shut off precipitation in our area. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.
The Sunday to Tuesday period looks less cloudy, but it will still very humid, and we’ll still be dealing with afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Highs will be in the low to mid 80s during this stretch, with lows in the 60s to near 70 degrees.
Hopefully by the middle of next week, we’ll get a straight up sunny day with no wet weather for a minute.
The heat looks to resurge by late next week… July is looking hot and humid, my friends.
Have a great day!