TORNADO AND SEVERE T-STORM THREAT IS OVER… FLASH FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE REGION-WIDE… TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR EMASS, RI, AND SOUTHEAST CT… PERIODS OF SHOWERS, SOME HEAVY, WILL CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT… HEAVY RAIN ARRIVES EARLY TOMORROW MORNING… FRIDAY MORNING IS GENERALLY A WASHOUT… ELSA LEAVES BY EARLY AFTERNOON… SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING… NICER WEEKEND… THIS REPORT IS FOCUSED ON THE NEXT 24 HOURS… 6:30PM THURS…

Good evening everybody, we’ve had quite a few bouts of rainfall today, with some thunderstorms, but nothing all that strong or severe, other than torrential rainfall.

We have a cold air damming signature showing up on the surface pressure maps over New England, and that is due to cooling northeast flow off of high pressure well to our northeast up by the crown of Maine and adjacent New Brunswick Province, in Canada.

This flow capped our high temps around the low 70s, and mid 70s were never reached today.

This also provided a more stable vertical atmosphere overhead, and so while I was monitoring strong to severe storms in southeast NY and southwest CT, some of which had rotation and/or large hail associated with them, every time they gained enough latitude (i.e. tracked north enough toward WMass) they died and went to severe weather heaven.

Every strong cell has been like that today, pushing into our cooler air, and lower dewpoint temp surface atmosphere and biting the dust.

Works for me, I say!

Still, those strong storms morphed into solid moderate to heavy showers, and even periods of stratiform rainfall, like mini-rainstorms. Some of us have gotten over half an inch just today.

As of 6pm, only widely scattered lighter showers exist over the Berkshires, western hilltowns, southern VT and southwest NH, with heavier rainfall east and south of those areas in the lower Pioneer Valley, CMass, and much of northern CT.

We can expect scattered showers, some heavier than others, to roll northeast through the WMass region tonight through midnight and into the pre-dawn hours when lows should bottom out into the low to mid 60s, which means more or less where they are now.

We have an upper level system to our northwest with a surface low and cold frontal boundary that will be pressing into the eastern Great Lakes and western NY by tomorrow morning.

The influence of this system to our northwest has already caused Elsa to strength as it pushes northeast into Virginia, heading toward the northern DelMarVa and southern NJ coastline.

Sustained winds are at 50mph, and it is forecast to track between Montauk and Martha’s Vineyard, likely over Block Island tomorrow morning.

After midnight, we should start to see the northern rain bands of Tropical Storm Elsa push into CT, RI and MA before dawn, when rain should start to become heavier.

Between 6am and 1pm, we should see the heaviest core of Elsa’s rains downpour over many areas in our region.

Now, we will have southeast winds ahead of the storm, which could help amplify rain totals over the western hilltowns, Berkshires, and southern Greens.

Meanwhile the heaviest core of rain should see its northwest edge make it to about a line from Westfield to Amherst to Athol. It’s possible that east of the hilltowns and northwest of this edge of heavier rainfall, we could see some subsidence, or lower totals.

Regardless, I think we are going to see a widespread 1-4″ of rainfall, with some areas reaching up to 5″ or even 6″ of rain east of the I-91 corridor in MA and CT.

Flash flooding is going to be likely in spots, and I expect to see several if not numerous Flash Flood Warnings tomorrow morning, so it will be another busy weather day, which will be 4 in a row.

Remember that if you come up to a flooded road way, you do NOT know 3 things:

1. How deep the water is
2. How fast the current is, if any
3. If the roadway is compromised underneath the flooded area

In other words, it may be really inconvenient, but I would strongly urge you to turn around and go find another way to get to where you are going, because if you get stuck, or worse, drown, you’re pulling emergency resources that could be used to help folks in legitimate, unpreventable accidents. Be smart, prudent, and considerate, folks. #FoodForThought

Now, Elsa is accelerating in speed, and should be out of here by early afternoon, and we may even see the sun break out during the afternoon as everything is sopping wet!

Highs tomorrow will reach the mid 70s to low 80s, especially if we can get a few hours of sun cranking.

Remember that cold front I told you about?

That still has to come through tomorrow evening, and will bring some late afternoon or evening scattered showers or thunderstorms for some extra rainy topping on our tropical sop cake….. mmm, mmm, GOOD!!!!

Activity wanes tomorrow night, and lows drop into the low to mid 60s with patchy fog late.

The weekend looks better, but not totally dry. More sunshine is expected in the form of partly sunny skies, but a few afternoon showers and storms are possible, but nothing severe. Highs 75-80º both days, lows upper 50s to near 60º.

Warmer, muggier, and more in the way of afternoon showers and thunderstorms with highs well into the 80s, but I will refine that when we get closer, especially on Saturday morning.

For tonight and tomorrow, I am focused on Elsa and monitoring developments on what we KNOW is headed into our region.

Finally, if you are traveling to, leaving from, or know folks on the Cape, the wind impact is going to be the main issue there, with some heavy rainfall of course.

Winds starting around 7am give or take an hour will be picking up, and by mid morning should be gusting 40-60mph, provided the storm tracks over Block Island, roughly.

A further east track, and winds shift east, further west, and winds shift west (HINT: that goes for our heavy rain impacts as well).

I will refine first thing in the morning and update you with a comprehensive report before 7am.

Have a great night, and stay dry!