SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEST CHANCE IS FOR 5-8PM ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE… HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SHOWERS OR A STORM POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME ANYWHERE BEFORE THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY LATE TODAY… WE REPEAT THIS POTENTIAL ALL OVER AGAIN TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY… A FRONT PASSES SOUTH AND STALLS, PROVIDING MORE SHOWERS THURSDAY, AS ELSA RACES NORTHEAST OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST PASSING CLOSE TO NANTUCKET PUSHING THE FRONT BACK NORTH WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOME OF US, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-91 THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY… DECENT WEEKEND AHEAD… 7:05AM TUES…
Good morning everybody, for folks in the northern Berkshires, SVT, Franklin County, northern Worcester County and southwest NH we had some rockin’ and rollin’ going on last night around 2-3am! Some areas received over half inch of rainfall.
Did anyone see any hail? The frequent lightning was something else, and the heavy rain was a sleep interrupter!
Just a little while ago we had a thunderstorm move through Cheshire County NH, and we have one more thunderstorm that looks to track into southwest VT and northwest MA a little later this morning, so heads up on that.
Otherwise, we have a disturbance moving into the region today on the heels of a warm front that is now passing through the region.
The warm front passage begets hot and humid conditions with dewpoints now in the mid 60s rising into the 65-70º range, which will create instability at the surface today.
Highs will reach the mid 80s to low 90s, and Heat Advisories have been posted for today through tomorrow evening in central/eastern Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden Counties in WMass, southern Worcester County in CMass, north-central and northeast CT and the southern Taconics.
The incoming impulse won’t have a lot of wind energy aloft with it, though our surface winds should gust over 20mph at times out of the southwest.
Showers or a thunderstorm are possible at any point today, but the best chance for severe weather will occur between 5-8pm along and south of the Pike where the best parameters line up. Isolated damaging wind gusts, and torrential rain are the main threats, and we can’t rule out a microburst, especially in northern CT. Hail is a secondary threat.
Activity wanes tonight, and lows will only bottom out in the mid to upper 60s with humid conditions.
Wednesday look like a repeat of today, with highs again in the mid 80s to low 90s, very humid, and another round of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in the afternoon ahead of a cold front that should pass south through the region overnight, with lows in the low to mid 60s.
On Thursday, the heat will break with highs in the 70s, but the front to our south will slow and likely stall as Tropical Storm Elsa tracks northeast toward the southern Mid-Atlantic coastline.
Thursday morning may be dry, but the day looks mostly cloudy, and that front may be pushed northward by Elsa at it approaches, leading to more showers in the afternoon.
It is the Thursday night into Friday timeframe where the impacts from Elsa may be felt around here, especially east of the I-91 corridor.
Heavy rainfall is possible Thursday night into Friday with tropical downpours and a thunderstorm can’t be ruled out. Wind should be a non-issue for the WMass reigon.
Highs Friday will reach the upper 70s to low 80s with lows in the low to mid 60s with more showers possible.
The weekend through Monday period looks nicer, with partly sunny skies on average, highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, and a chance for scattered afternoon showers, but a washout is not expected during this timeframe.
Have a great day, and keep it tuned here, as I will update you on our severe weather potential!