LOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK TONIGHT… SHOWERS AND DOWNPOURS WITH REGULAR THUNDERSTORMS PUSH INTO THE WMASS REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD… RAIN WILL FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES… UP TO 1″ OR SO OF RAIN POSSIBLE… A DRIER FRIDAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTER SHOWERS… SATURDAY IS THE PICK OF THE WEEKEND FOR SURE, A GORGEOUS BUT COOLER DAY WITH SUPER DRY AIR… SUNDAY MOISTENS BACK UP WITH SHOWERS BY EVENING… WE DRY BACK OUT MONDAY AND THEN LOOK TO A STORM CHANCE BY MID WEEK, AND THE WARMENING COMMENCES BY LATE WEEK AS SUMMER TEMPS AND HUMIDITY RETURNS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST… 7:00AM THURS…
Good morning, party people, because now we’re back where we started, here we go ’round again, day after day, we get up and we say, we gotta do it again, do it again, do it again! #kinksreference
I think that might be one of my favorite Kinks songs, great video too!
Anyway, tappity tap tap goes my fingers, which haven’t frozen up from arthritis yet, thankfully, though I should probably bring them into the local shop for an oil change.
To start, while we can’t rule out a strong to severe thunderstorm along and south of the Pike this afternoon and tonight, it’s very unlikely, and I am 99.99% sure that the tornado risk is nil, and will be suppressed well south of us. Now, it’s not non-zero, and southern Litchfield County could get severe weather, but those kind of potentials will be well south of us, likely over the Mid-Atlantic tonight.
For us, we’re mostly cloudy this morning, and the cloud deck will thicken as a Mesoscale Convective System (i.e. a small-scale cluster of strong thunderstorms and downpours) is tracking into the eastern Great Lakes along/ahead of a cold front which will pass through our region by Friday morning.
As it runs into less favorable conditions to its convective survival, it will morph into an area of showers and regular storms that will track into our region.
Aided by a southerly low level jet streak (i.e. a lower-level faster-moving river of air aloft) that will develop out in front of it over southern New England this afternoon, said southerly flow will meet up with an easterly-moving frontal boundary, producing converging air, which will force air to rise and produce rain.
Highs today will reach the low to upper 70s, with lows in the low to mid 60s.
Showers, downpours and thunderstorms arrive by mid to late afternoon, and continue intermittently overnight into early Friday morning, when some patchy fog may form.
For Friday, the cold front responsible for tonight’s wet weather will be east of our region, and cooler, drier air will be moving into the region. This will produce northwest wind gusts blowing up to 20-30mph as a broad upper level trough swings its axis through the region, which will also produce some isolated to widely scattered instability showers on Friday with colder air aloft.
Highs will reach the low to upper 70s under partly sunny skies, and lows, and with winds dying down at night and skies clearing out, lows will crash into the mid 40s to low 50s from north to south in the WMass region, as air will be crisp and dry and radiational cooling will maximize.
Saturday is the pick of the weekend with high pressure, sunny skies, dry air, and highs in the low to mid 70s with lows in the 50s.
Sunday will see clouds build as another frontal system tracks into the region and by afternoon, more showers and thunderstorms will develop and last into the night. Highs will be in the 70s, lows in the 50s.
By Monday, any early morning showers or clouds should begin to wane, and we’ll get a nice-looking early week period with partial sunshine at least, and highs in the 70s to low 80s.
By mid-week, we have to watch the potential for a rainstorm or showers, and beyond that, we should see a re-flexing of the Bermuda High, and this upper level trough that has kept us cooler-than-average for a while now will be pushed back north into Canada.
This means a return to summer heat and humidity, so summah lovahs do not despair!
Have a great day!