RAINY WEATHER RESUMES AFTER ONE MORE HOT AND HUMID DAY TODAY… ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1-6PM TODAY… THE WEEKEND LOOKS MOSTLY CLOUDY, HUMID, AND UNSETTLED… BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY OVERNIGHT… SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS, SOME HEAVY AS UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH… EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE SHOWERY AT TIMES, WITH THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH OUR FIRST CHANCE AT A PATTERN SHIFT BY LATE WEEK… DON’T HOLD YOUR BREATH YET, BUT THAT’S OUR *FIRST* HOPE SINCE THIS MONTH STARTED… 6:55AM FRI…
Good morning everybody, after some patchy morning fog burns off we’re off to the races with a hot and humid day on the way with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and Heat Indices rising into the mid 90s, and possibly upper 90s in the southern Taconics of eastern Dutchess County NY (just west of Litchfield County in northwest CT, both of which represent the southwestern edge of my coverage area).
As for the rest of the WMass region, we are watching a cold front draped off of a low tracking northeast up the St. Lawrence River Valley in southeast Canada.
This front will sag southeast towards our region, and will likely set off a broken line of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Timing will be a little earlier than what we’re used to, with 1-6pm being the main time of impact from northwest (southern VT) to southeast (northeast CT).
Some storms may become strong to even severe with damaging wind gusts possible, but with not-as-strong mid level lapse rates, I don’t see how we muster more than small/pea-sized hail, if any at all. I think the very-isolated wind damage threat or street flooding from downpours are the main issues to watch.
This activity should wane before or around sunset and the front will pass through overnight with lows in the 60s, and continued humidity.
For Saturday, the first half of the day will see a few showers here and there (especially earlier in the morning), but there will be far less activity compared to the later afternoon, evening and overnight period.
Highs will be cooler, reaching the 75-80º range with some low 70s in southern VT/southwest NH, and skies will be mostly cloudy.
With our cold front stalled to the south of us after passing through tonight, a wave of low pressure will develop and track east along the front and bring heavier rains and some thunderstorms Saturday evening, overnight and into early Sunday morning, with 1-2″ of rainfall possible in spots. Lows will be in the 60s.
For Sunday, it is STILL tricky to determine what’s coming, but as of now, it looks like and upper low will be slowly tracking east into the region.
With continued humidity, and lift from the upper low, periods of scattered showers and possible downpours are expected Sunday, especially in the afternoon and evening, but it won’t be raining all the time, there will be dry areas/spells.
Highs will be in the low to mid 70s and some showers will still be possible Sunday evening with lows in the 60s.
On Monday, another wave will bring additional chances for scattered showers, but again, it won’t be raining the whole time and we should get back into more partial sunshine after a cloudy weekend. Highs will reach the 75-80º range with lows in the low 60s.
By Tuesday, a cold front will be approaching the region, trying to kick this rainy morass outta here. We’ll again see the sun at times, and highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s with some showers and thunderstorms possible by afternoon, which may lead into Wednesday morning depending on the front’s timing.
Sometime by Wednesday or Thursday we should see a drier air mass move into the region with more sunshine and cooler temps.
Whether that lasts into the following weekend is uncertain, as some signals show ANOTHER upper low/trough developing over the region, which would mean MORE rainfall, but other signals show the western ridge spreading east and driving a more northwesterly flow out of Canada, which would be drier and sunnier and pleasant.
I personally hope for the latter, maybe you to do?
Have a great day!