[WINTER ALERT] WIND CHILL ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR SOUTHERN VT, BERKSHIRE COUNTY, THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN TACONICS, THE WESTERN HILLTOWNS AND NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON… WATCH FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE AND REFREEZING OF WET SURFACES AS COLD AIR POURS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT… ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE AS NORTHWEST WINDS GUST 30-45MPH AT TIMES DUE TO BREAKAGE OF ICE-ENCASED POWER LINES OR TREE LIMBS… SNOW SHOWERS MAY LEAVE A COATING TO AN INCH WELL WEST OF I-91… 5:15pm Sunday…

Good evening everybody, we have an additional band of rain and mixed precipitation forming east of tonight’s cold frontal passage and will largely provide scattered rain and freezing rain showers (depending on your temp early this evening) mostly along and south of the MassPike, though some isolated showers or drizzle are expected north of the Pike over the next few hours.

For later this evening, a cold front will be tracking through the region and turning our winds out of the northwest, which will produce gusts of 30-45mph at times (the high end of that range being likely over the high elevations where ice accretion was heaviest).

This will impact us in a few key ways.

ISOLATED OUTAGES POSSIBLE
First, any areas where ice accreted to a quarter inch or more of ice today will be vulnerable to brittle ice-encased tree limbs and power lines being blown about by the wind causing breakage and isolated power outages for some.

BLACK ICE THREAT
This impact will be set within the larger contextual impact of much colder air pouring into the region which will be refreezing any wet surfaces or untreated road ways, causing black ice, and treacherous driving and walking conditions.

So for all you very late dog walkers out there, or folks that have to travel late tonight, if you’re out around midnight or after and temps have fallen under freezing, watch for icy areas.

SNOW SHOWERS WITH FRESH COATINGS
Finally, the lake effect snow machine is going to fully turn on with this cold air punch, and bring some snow showers, some of which may be heavy, into the Berkshires, Taconics and SVT, which may coat the ground by tomorrow morning in a few spots, as lows drop into the mid teens to low 20s.

So that covers tonight, and remember that wind chills will be diving into the single digits above and below zero by dawn with strong northwest wind and falling temps.

For tomorrow, we’ll enjoy a nice partly sunny fair weather day with highs in the low to mid 20s with west winds gusting to 20mph at times.

LOW WIND CHILLS AND ARCTIC COLD COMING
However, a SECOND and more powerful Arctic cold front will rip through the region tomorrow night, and unleash brutal cold across the WMass region, along with the potential for a multi-lake (Lake Superior, Lake Huron, and Lake Ontario) lake effect snow band to impact parts of SVT or the Berkshires with periods of snow showers in the evening.

With lows tanking into the 5 below to 5 above range, and west winds gusting over 25mph, wind chill values will fall as low as 15º to 25º below zero!

Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning will easily be the coldest weather we’ve experienced in our current cold season.

High Tuesday will be colder than tonight’s lows(!), with highs only reaching the mid single digits to low teens. At least it will be sunny!

Lows will again plummet to the single digits below and above zero.

A MINI MILDENING
By Wednesday and Thursday, we’ll get into a milder flow with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s Wednesday under sunny skies, and in the 30s for Thursday as clouds increase.

WINTER STORM POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND
After that, murkiness abounds, as it looks plenty cold for a winter storm, but I’m seeing mixed signals in terms of potential storminess on either Friday or Sunday, so I will keep you updated as we get closer.

Have a great night, bundle up, check your surfaces, and get ready for #TundraTime
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WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING, WITH SOME SLEET AT ONSET, MAYBE MIXED BRIEFLY WITH SNOW IN NORTHWEST MA INTO SVT… AN ICY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IS ON THE WAY… PRECIP SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON BY WHICH TIME MUCH OF THE PIONEER VALLEY SHOULD FLIP TO PLAIN RAIN INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF GREENFIELD… HOWEVER, SCATTERED FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD LINGER IN THE BERKSHIRES, WESTERN HILLS, NORTHERN WORCESTER HIGHLANDS AND POINTS NORTH… 6:45am Sunday…

Good morning everybody, again as per my post last night, after southwest winds gust 25-35mph ahead of our cold front this evening, northwest winds will then gust 25-40mph tonight with a few snow showers by dawn as much colder air moves into the region.

A secondary cold front then drops the Arctic hammer Monday night into Wednesday morning with potentially record-breaking low temps, and wind chills below zero.

It looks like fair weather with plenty of sunshine through much of this upcoming week before another snowstorm is possible by next weekend sometime.

I will update this evening on all of those details with more clarity and timing, but for now, I want to focus on today’s icing event.

ICING THIS MORNING
Scattered showers are already tracking into the Berkshires aloft and the showers are moving quickly east-northeast into the region, having overspread central/eastern NY and central PA.

However, dewpoint depressions (the difference between the air temperature and the dewpont temperature) are as high as 17º in some cases, which means the surface is too dry to “accept” precip down to the ground yet, so it’s evaporating.

As it evaporates, it will 1. Cool the lower atmosphere as air temps and dewpoint temps fall and rise respectively to meet each other, and 2. Moisten the lower atmosphere, decrease the dewpoint depressions, and eventually allow precip to reach the ground.

This will likely delay the onset of precipitation by a little bit, so instead of the 6-8am start, it may be a little more like 7-10am from west to east (Pittsfield to Worcester… extrapolate if you’re in the middle).

Let me know what you are seeing this morning IF you are west of I-91. I know that east of there it’s likely just cloudy if you’re reading this before 8am or so.

Warm air is already intruding overhead about a mile up, below that at about 2500 feet or so, it’s below freezing down to the surface and likely to stay that way into early afternoon.

We may start with a burst of sleet, which will then transition to freezing rain through the morning. If you see any snow it will be very short-lived.

Southerly flow will be pushing temps up through the low to mid 20s where they are as of this writing, and into the upper 20s to mid 30s by noon or early afternoon, so areas south of Greenfield down into Hartford and points east (except for some high terrain areas in Worcester County and perhaps eastern Hampden County) *should* flip to plain rain, as precip becomes more spotty.

Areas from Greenfield northeast, north, northwest including the western hilltowns and Berkshires/Taconics (except for some low-lying river valleys) may stay as freezing rain or freezing drizzle into sunset.

Ice accretion amounts will range from a glaze in the lower Pioneer Valley to north-central and northeast CT into Worcester, on up to a quarter to perhaps a third of an inch in the northwestern hilltowns, northern Berkshires/Taconics into SVT, with varying amounts in between.

Southwest winds will gust 25-35mph late afternoon before precip of any type starts clearing out of here between 6-8pm as the cold front swings through and drops lows into the upper teens.

I will update later this morning, but I would limit or avoid travel this morning and let temps come up some before considering traveling this afternoon.

The Berkshires and hilltowns may ice all day. Be careful…

I’ll do my best to answer any questions, but I’m a bit under the weather, so am going to get some tea and lie back down… Hope your day goes well!