*7:20PM STORM UPDATE* OUR FIRST SNOWSTORM IS ON THE WAY TO THE WMASS REGION… WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR WINDHAM COUNTY CT AND SOUTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY MA… WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR EVERYWHERE ELSE IN NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST CT, WMASS AND NORTHERN CMASS… AMOUNTS ARE GOING UP SLIGHTLY AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WAS POSSIBLE… 5-10AM IS THE STEADIEST SNOW… ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED QUICKLY… A.M. COMMUTE SLOW-GOING AND NOT ADVISED IF TRAVEL CAN BE DELAYED…

Good evening everybody, I hope you had a great day today, we got plenty of sunshine. It sure is nice to not be living in the fog of recent days!

Clouds are already increasing this evening as a storm system pushes northeast into Virginia, while a secondary low is forming north of the Bahamas and lifting north-northeast.

The interaction of this primary and secondary low will be key in determining ultimate storm track and where the heaviest snow band sets up (which will make the difference between a 3-6″ or a 4-8″ snowfall in our southeast zones).

Right now, given that the mid-level low is expected to track over southeast MA, and given that we’ll be dealing with a dry snow creating more-easily-stacked dendrite snowflakes, I am going to add an inch to all of the ranges offered earlier.

SLIGHTLY-ADJUSTED AMOUNTS
That means instead of 3-6″ in our southeast zones (Tolland and Windham Counties in CT, eastern Hampden and easternmost Hampshire Counties, as well as southern Worcester Counties in MA) I am going with 4-8″.

And instead of 1-4″ in the rest of WMass (including the Taconics of eastern NY), Hartford and Litchfield Counties in CT, and northern Worcester County I am going with 2-5″.

I still think a general 1-3″ should do it for SVT and SWNH, as those areas will be farther away from the best lift and the coastal low center.

LINGERING CONCERN FOR LOWER TOTALS
ALONG/WEST OF I-91 CORRIDOR
I do have a lingering concern that we may see a band of subsidence, or sinking air, set up just west and northwest of that main snow band (that band will set up somewhere in southeast New England, and give parts of northern RI, southern Middlesex and Bristol Counties in MA more like 6-9″).

To be clear, that’s why amounts are expected to be less in northwest CT, much of WMass and points north, but the precipitation gradient may become sharper with dry air in place, which could produce the original 1-4″ range I have been saying for a few days now.

Regardless, we’re splitting hairs, folks, though I do know certain accumulations trigger private snow plow operations, and I’m trying to be sensitive to that, given that it is some people’s winter livelihoods.

TIMING/IMPACTS
Having said that, we’re all getting a light to moderate snowfall tomorrow, and the main issue is the quick-hitting nature of this storm, as it is expected to impact us with the steadiest and heaviest snow between 5-10am in WMass, and more like 7am-noon in central MA and northeast CT.

First snow showers will probably arrive between 2-4am from west to east, and snow will start sticking/accumulating quickly given that we’ve remnant cold air in place, and lows are forecast to drop into the low to mid 20s overnight.

Visibilities will be reduced in moderate to heavy snow early tomorrow morning.

If you must travel, give yourself plenty of time in the morning to get to where you are going.

If you can delay travel until late morning or afternoon, that is better.

We will see highs reach the upper 20s to low 30s, and partial sunshine will emerge later in the afternoon, especially along/west of the I-91 corridor, and probably into parts of western Worcester County too.

BLUSTERY AND COLD TOMORROW NIGHT!
This storm is going to phase with the upper low well east of New England and dump a blizzard onto Nova Scotia!

As such, the lowering pressure around the departing low and increasing pressure as our 1030mb high tracks east will produce northwest wind gusts behind the storm of 20-30mph, so we will have blowing snow and potential scattered snow showers late at night, both of which could reduce visibility all over again if you are out late.

Lows are going to tank with incoming cold air advection along with fresh snow pack, so expect lows into the upper single digits to low/mid teens from SVT down into WMass. Maybe it will be a few degrees warmer down into northern CT and CMass… upper teens, let’s bust out the swimsuits!

Saturday is cold and sunny, Sunday is a mixed precip day with icing for some of us, and some plain rain showers south and east of Northampton (I will refine this after our Friday snow).

Then brutally cold Arctic overspreads the region like frigid molasses Monday afternoon and night, through into Wednesday with either Wind Chill Advisories or potentially Wind Chill Warnings likely needed by Tuesday: the coldest day of the new Winter season.

Have a great night and unless I see something wacky over the next few hours, this will be the final update for today, and I will be up at 4am and update you ASAP in the morning as our snow gets underway, and we get a look at what the lows did overnight and how the precip shield is setting up.

Have a great night and I’ll update in the morning!
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7:00AM-THURS: WINTER STORM WATCHES AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE GREATER WMASS REGION FOR FRIDAY MORNING’S EXPECTED SNOWFALL… BLACK ICE PATCHES THIS MORNING AS WELL… NO BIG CHANGES FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS THINKING… THE HIGHER AMOUNTS AND STRONGEST INTENSITIES FALL THE MORE SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO IN THE REGION… STEADIEST SNOW RUNS 4AM-10AM TOMORROW MORNING… PLOWS WILL COME OUT FOR SOME OF US… THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW IS ON ITS WAY…

Good morning everybody, we’ve got changeable wintry weather on the way for tomorrow and through the middle of next week as winter flexes and waxes across the region, but before I dive into those details I’ve got a note from our local and delicious sponsor, #TandemBagelCo, with a new location in West Springfield, MA.
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WEATHER BULLETIN:
–Good morning folks, we have Winter Weather Advisories hoisted for all of WMass except northern Berkshire County, as well as all of northern CT
–Winter Storm Watch has been hoisted for southern Worcester County where the best chance for half a foot of snow exists
–No advisories, watches or warnings are yet posted for SVT or SWNH where lighter snows are expected, but that could change
–BLACK ICE: we also have patches of black ice out there so be careful, especially on tertiary/back/side roads, and at elevation
–For today, a cold front is sliding through the region, and west winds will gust up to 25mph at times behind the front, with highs reaching the low/mid 30s under partly to mostly sunny skies
–Lows tonight will drop into the upper teens to mid 20s as clouds thicken and skies become overcast
–This storm is going to be all snow, no mix, no rain, just a solidly cold temperature profile from surface to sky, all the way up and down
–Highs will be in the upper 20s to low 30s

STORM SETUP
–Speaking of our storm, it is gathering strength as it dips through Tennessee this morning, and is showing strength down that way with some 1″ per hour snowfall rates
–Meanwhile we have an upper level trough swinging east into the Great Lakes region and this will eventually orient itself negatively (not in its attitude, but in its axis, which means northwest to southeast, which helps pull storms closer to New England)
–These two features will combine to continue to strengthen our surface low center as it exits the DelMarVa Peninsula and tracks northeast, staying a bit south of The Benchmark, passing around 100 miles south of Nantucket Island
–With colder and higher pressure air northwest of the storm, a heavier snow band will form as it makes its closest approach to southern New England

TIMING
–Our storm exits the coast in the pre-dawn hours of Friday morning, and will spread first snow showers into westernmost CT and the southern Berkshires around or after midnight
–Snow should be falling everywhere by 2-4am from west to east (Berks to Worcester)
–The steadiest snow falls 4-10am, and should be over by about noon to maybe early afternoon

AMOUNTS
–The aforementioned heavy snow band will likely graze parts of northeast CT and southern Worcester County where I could see Winter Storm Warnings being hoisted later, and where the best chance for 6″ or so of snow accumulation would be
–Otherwise, I am sticking with my thoughts over the past few days of 3-6″ of snow in northeast CT into eastern Hampden County, eastern Hampshire County, and all of CMass
–The potential is there for a stripe of 5-8″ in some parts of northeast CT and southern Worcester County
–The rest of our WMass region west and northwest of those areas I think sees 1-4″ of snowfall
–CAVEAT: If the storm hugs the coast more, and is guided a bit closer by the upper level trough, or if it amplifies like some short-term guidance is showing (which I am not buying currently), then we could probably add an inch to all of those ranges

IMPACTS
–This snow’s arrival comes at the coldest time of morning, when snow sticks most readily
–Steadiest snow will be falling at a time when commutes are getting underway
–This means that you will need to give yourself extra time tomorrow morning for travel

POST-SNOWSTORM
–Friday night lows will be in the upper singles to mid teens so the snow is sticking around
–Highs Saturday under sunny skies will reach the 25-30º range and lows will be in the mid to upper teens as skies cloud up and mixed snow and ice showers arrive early Sunday morning
–A frontal system pushes milder air aloft over cold air at the surface, which means more mixed precip Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 30s, with some folks staying near freezing, so more on that as get past this snowfall tomorrow
–Then the Arctic hammer drops next week, with highs in the 20s Monday and Wednesday and only the teens on Tuesday!!
–Lows below zero in spots Tuesday night, just brutally cold, and the coldest air of the winter so far

Stay tuned for updates this evening and have a great day!