Good evening everybody, you can scroll up and down to find the sections of this semi-book that you care most about.
LOOKING LIKE AN HISTORIC STORM
What I know this evening, is that the range of solutions, potential tracks, and other features are slowly coming together for a powerful low pressure system that should become an historic winter storm for southern New England, and for some living in eastern MA, the Blizzard of 2022.
WHAT IS A BLIZZARD, REALLY?
Remember, a blizzard refers to a powerful nor’easter’s visibility component, which is driven by the combination of wind and falling OR blowing snow (for example, you can have what are called “ground blizzards” from recent snowfalls).
The official definition of a blizzard combines both visibility of a 1/4 mile or less in falling or blowing snow along with sustained winds or frequent gusts to 35mph or higher for a consecutive period of 3 hours or longer.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
For tonight, a few snow showers are possible with increasing clouds and lows in the mid to upper teens.
For Friday, we have a milder day than today, but still cold with highs reaching the upper 20s to low 30s under mostly cloudy skies.
As a cold front works southeast from northern NY/VT, a little ripple of energy could spark some snow showers to develop mostly south of the Route 2 corridor in northern CT and parts of the WMass region, and should these be organized enough could lay down some coatings in parts of our region.
Said cold front will work through the region from north to south and lay in a fresh surface layer of very cold air, with lows likely down into the single digits to maybe 10º or so as clouds thicken up.
STORM SETUP
An upper level low will dive southeast into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Friday into Saturday and join forces with a disturbance and area of showers and thunderstorms north of the Bahamas.
Our jet stream (the fast moving river of air several miles aloft) will be positioned over New England and track north, then northeast then east, while rapidly diverging a large volume air aloft (i.e. transporting it away and out of here, vamoose!).
As our upper low digs through the base off an eastern U.S. trough (i.e. an area of lower than average pressures a few miles up), rapidly falling pressure will develop east of the Carolinas at the surface as our low takes shape.
As this trough becomes tilted neutrally to negatively (N to S and NW to SE orientations, respectively) our upper low will close off just east of the DelMarVa Peninsula and capture our surface low as it undergoes bombogenesis (deepening and strengthening rapidly) and direct it north and then north-northeast toward The Benchmark, which is 80 miles south of Nantucket.
Where ever it exactly tracks, this is going to be a very powerful winter storm, and one capable of generating a good deal of wind damage over Cape Cod, the Islands, southeast MA and possibly eastern RI.
A track over The Benchmark still seems most likely, but not set in stone (nor is any track ever perfectly pre-determined before it happens, for that matter).
HEAVY SNOW BAND/DEFORMATION ZONE
As the upper low closes off from the jet stream circulation, the snow shield will expand rapidly to the north and northwest, as a band of heavy snow develops in a northeast to southwest orientation.
How far north and west those heavier snows make into southern New England will be the difference between a major, heavy snowfall and a light to moderate snow, because just beyond the northwest flank of that heavy snow will be an area of subsidence, or sinking air, and that should set up somewhere in the WMass region.
What goes up must come down, and that means light snows where ever that area sets up, which I believe will be somewhere west of I-91 and north of Rt. 2 from perhaps Keene, NH westward into SVT.
TIMING
Between about 5-8am we should see some snow showers developing from south to north starting in CT and moving into MA.
As we move into the late morning and early afternoon, our storm will deepen and makes its closest pass to Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket.
This means that the brunt of this storm will occur during the afternoon and early evening in the WMass region, and last a bit longer as you got east.
Snowfall likely winds down either side of midnight.
Please Note:
Storms of this magnitude can engage in “spooky action”, as Einstein used to say about quantum particles.
This means that if the storm gets captured a little earlier by the upper low, I have no way of knowing whether or not this thing is going to stall, jog west, etc.
I’ll keep you updated all day Saturday, as I will be glued to my devices and observing everything and keeping you informed as it unfolds.
WIND
Northerly to north-northeasterly winds will gust 25-45mph in the WMass region and surrounding counties, and may reach 50mph at times in northeast CT and CMass, closer to the storm.
Winds of 45-65mph will blow for hours in EMass and RI, and the Cape and Islands could see gusts of 60-75mph, and possibly up to 80mph at times with sustained winds over 30mph for a period of time as this storm just bombs out, and forms an eye-like hurricane-ish feature (its central pressure may become as deep as a lower category hurricane, actually).
OUTAGES
As for the WMass region, some very isolated outages are possible, but not expecting much.
Assuming this wind comes to pass, this is going to cause scattered to potentially widespread outages in parts of Plymouth and Bristol Counties down into the Cape and Islands.
Speaking of the Cape, it’s reasonable to assume that while the snow will drier and fluffier for most of us, down there it will be wetter, and stick to power lines, trees, and when combined with those winds, it’s not hard to see how extended power loss with very cold temperatures combines with 1-2 feet of snow to produce a REAL problem down that way.
***Please let your people know in southeast MA to complete storm preparations and be ready for outages, very cold temperatures, and heavy snow.***
WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT
With strong northerlies and highs in the teens crashing into the singles at night wind chills will go below zero as the night wears on. A very, very wintry day is kicking off the upcoming weekend.
AMOUNTS AND RATES
Snowfall rates in the WMass region will fall between 1/2″ to 1″ per hour at times, and could reach 2-4″ per hours in CMass, northeast CT and EMass.
As for amounts, I am going to up my totals just slightly and add in a lower range.
1-3″:
Southern VT (Bennington County, western Windham)
Taconics of E.NY
2-5″:
Eastern Windham County VT
Cheshire County NH
Berkshires
Western Hilltowns of WMass
Litchfield County CT
Western Hartford County CT
5-10″
Central/eastern Franklin, Hampshire Counties MA
Central Hampden County MA
Northern Worcester County MA
Rest of Hartford County CT
Western Tolland County CT
10-16″
Eastern Hampden County MA
Southern Worcester County MA
Eastern Tolland and Windham County CT
BUST POTENTIAL
I think it’s more likely that this storm could bust to the east, with lowered totals from west to east, as we still don’t know how convection (i.e. thunderstorm development) over the open Atlantic Ocean the east side of this storm will develop, and how it will affect the storm track.
While there have been times where a storm hugged the coast more than expected (which would mean heavier snow in WMass, and still could happen) I think it is less likely, but we’ll see.
We need a LOT of ingredients to come together, as our storm has not formed yet, so I think everything above is realistic for now.
I hope you have a great night, I need to eat dinner, then I will be back to answer questions if I can, then to bed, then up at 4am and at it again, so sleep well, and meet me back here by 7am in the morning with an updated report.
In addition, I will also be on WRSI The River 93.9FM with Monte Belmonte and Rock 102 with Bax and O’Brien sometime during the morning drive time, so maybe you’ll hear me blabbering on like the nerd that I am.
Good night, you Kings of Cummington, you Queens of Conway, you Princes of Petersham…
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7:00AM-THURS: WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR WORCESTER COUNTY MA, AS WELL AS TOLLAND WINDHAM COUNTIES IN CT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT… THESE ARE THE AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF EXCEEDING A HALF FOOT AND SOME MAY REACH OR EXCEED A FOOT OF SNOW… A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST LIKELY FOR THE WMASS REGION DOWN INTO NW.CT AND MOSTLY LIGHT FOR SVT/SWNH… SUPER COLD THIS MORNING… MILDER NEXT WEEK…
Good morning folks, it’s freaking COLD out there this morning, with some places down below -10º! We’ll be getting a 20-25º temperature rise for highs today, we’ll cloud up tomorrow, and then we’ll stop, drop and roll into our Saturday snowstorm details below, but first I’ve got a note from our local and delicious sponsor, #TandemBagelCo, with a new location in West Springfield, MA.
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A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR:
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DISCUSSION:
Good morning folks, I hope your slumbering activities provided sweet dreams, fruitful rest, and is supportive of an immense amount of vim, vigor and pep to help you step out into your day to ply the waters of your world.
As for our weather today, it’s calm, fair, but numbingly cold out, and with high pressure right over the region and tracking east, a light southerly flow develops later and pops our highs up and into the low to mid 20s under mostly sunny skies. Lows tonight will bottom out into the mid to upper teens as clouds increase with a snow shower possible after midnight.
A few snow showers are possible tomorrow, otherwise it will be mostly cloudy with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s, with lows in the single digits after a cold front passes through and sets the stage for a wintry Saturday.
As for our Saturday nor’easter, uncertainty continues, and that all hinges on the location of where exactly our upper level low pressure system will develop a closed-loop circulation, because from that point forward we should start seeing a northwestward and northerly snow shield expansion into southern New England.
Aye, this is the rub, my friends – how far west or east does this process come to completion?
If this evolution happens near the southern New Jersey shore or just off of the coast of the DelMarVa Peninsula a bit south of southern Jersey, it’s likely game on for at least a moderate snowfall in much of the WMass region (though lighter to the west and northwest – Berkshires, SVT), and a moderate to major snowfall for northeast CT, eastern Hampden County, CMass and the rest of RI and EMass.
However, it is still possible this happens much further east near The Benchmark (80 miles due south of Nantucket), which with dry air on the storm’s northwest flank would just lead very minor impacts here in WMass with light snow, and maybe little of anything in northwest MA and SVT.
Hopefully the guidance tools will come to better agreement by tonight, but I still think this process happens somewhere south of Long Island or Block Island and I’m still calling for a light to moderate snowfall (as I’ve been saying for days now) with approximately 2-4″ west of the CT River, and 4-8″ east, and more like 8-14″ in CMass and northeast CT, and up to 20″ in EMass south shore down toward the Cape.
I can’t tell you exactly how much you’ll get in your back yard, as there’s too much uncertainty still in how these elements will play out… kind of like much of life.
Snow would start sometime by mid Saturday morning, and last through the evening, and quit sometime by late Saturday night, or possibly even in the pre-dawn hours of Sunday morning for folks in CMass and northeast CT where the heaviest snow is expected to accumulate.
This will be a dry, fluffy snow, and north winds will be gusting 25-40mph during Saturday and Saturday night, so it’ll be a good day to hunker inside regardless of how much snow we get, as highs will only be in the teens! Lows will drop to the single digits.
Sunday looks blustery and cold with highs in the 20s under sunny skies, and then we moderate the temps next week with no inclement weather expected until late week, with low to mid 40s for highs by mid week.
Please stay tuned for a brief mid-day update, and a more comprehensive evening report as our powerful nor’easter continues to come into focus.
Have a great day, and I hope things go your way today!
P.S. I am running a clearance sale through This Weekend (then it’s over) for some leftover 2022 Weather Wall Calendars I have in stock, so shoot me a private message and I’ll get back to you with details, or you can order at the link below with coupon code 2022C2, thanks.
https://westernmassweather.com/product/2022-dhtwn-weather-wall-calendar/