WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR BERKSHIRE COUNTY, THE TACONICS, AND ALL OF SOUTHERN VT… FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON AFTER A BRIEF MIX OF SNOW/SLEET… VERY COLD GROUND COULD ALLOW FREEZING OF RAINFALL IN HILLTOWNS EVEN IF SURFACE IS ABOVE FREEZING… DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TOMORROW NIGHT… HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY WITH MORNING SQUALL LINE POSSIBLE, ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BERKSHIRES… BUCKLE UP… (7:15pm Tuesday)

Good evening everybody, today was certainly more tolerable than our recent pair of days, but it was still cold. Tonight will be quite cold as well, with lows in the single digits.

For tomorrow, we cloud up, and could see some mixed scattered showers of snow and sleet by late morning and into the early afternoon before temps increase into the mid to upper 30s across the region. Some lows 40s are possible down in northern CT.

FREEZING RAIN THREAT
However, as precip changes to rain and scattered showers increase, a few spots may still be below freezing, allowing for freezing rain to occur through about dinner time.

What I am most worried about, though, is the fact that the ground has been very cold, and is frozen solid. I am concerned that some areas of the Berkshires, the western hiltowns, southern VT and the northern Worcester County hills could see rain freezing on contact, even if the air temps is above freezing. This will cause very slippery conditions to develop, especially so on side roads, driveways and paths so please be extra alert tomorrow evening and night.

PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
As the night wears on, and more moist air advects into the region and over the snow/sleet pack in place, patchy fog may form, as lows will hang in the mid to upper 30s.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS
As you can see on the attached graphic, surface wind gusts are expected to blow 30-50mph tomorrow evening into Thursday morning.

The 850mb temperature graphic (850mb just means a mile over our heads) confirms that temperatures will be fairly uniform from the surface to a mile up. That, combined with a truly ripping southerly low level jet that will be blowing up to 80 knots/hour a mile up (see attached graphic) should allow strong wind gusts to mix down to the surface.

A windy, icy, foggy, and rainy night gets a StinkPot McGee rating of two big toes DOWN.

SQUALL LINE
But wait, there’s more! Heavier rains move in by Thursday morning, and as the cold front presses through, a gusty downpour squall line could form. While a rumble of thunder could occur, it’s highly unlikely. Should just be 10 minutes of downpour with gusty winds. Highs should reach the low 40s Thursday before crashing into the 20s at night

STREET FLOODING
This rain has nowhere to go. It can’t seep into the ground. Drains are clogged in spots. It’s going to cause street flooding in places, with ponding water on the road ways, and some rivers may push higher as well.

One saving grace is that hopefully the heaviest rain holds off until Thursday morning once we get through a potentially foggy night. We don’t need foggy conditions with some slippery spots, along with ponding of road ways. YUCK.

CHANGE BACK TO SNOW IN THE HILLS
A brief change to snow could occur in the Berkshires, SVT and western hilltowns as the storm pulls colder air in behind it, this would happen in the afternoon.

BLACK ICE
We drop to the low 20s tomorrow night, so any standing water is going to freeze all over again, creating more icy and slippery travel in places, so again, please be alert through Friday morning (and hopefully for the rest of your life).

HEAVENS TO MURGATROID!!
Bad Bugs Bunny reference there, but man, there’s a number of changeable weather impacts for us to nagivate through Friday morning.

I’m going to stop there because I think that’s more than enough to digest. Any questions, ask away below. The storm threats this weekend and early next week are not all that powerful, so just know it will get cold for Friday through Sunday with highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits, and we’ll refine as we get closer.

Ok, my vision is blurry. Time to stop. Have a great night!!!

——-
WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES EXPIRE AT 11AM FOR THE WESTERN HILLTOWNS… A VERY COLD START LEADS TO A MORE REASONABLY COLD JANUARY DAY AS WINDS SLACKEN… COLD AGAIN TONIGHT WILL SET UP A BRIEF WINTER MIX TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON TAHT QUICKLY CHANGES TO RAIN… RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PM CHANGES BRIEFLY BACK TO SNOW BEFORE QUITTING THURSDAY NIGHT… COLDER THIS WEEKEND, SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY… (6:25am Tuesday)

Good morning everybody, we’ve got one more brutally cold morning to deal with, along with some northwesterly wind gusts to 20-30mph. Thankfully, we will get into a southerly flow today which will moderate the air mass, as our departing Arctic lobe lumbers off to the east after creating all manner of sea smoke along the coasts, as well as ocean effect snow showers on the Cape and Long Island during yesterday.

SUMMARY
–Wind chills of 20 below zero are possible early this morning over the western hilltowns and Berkshires
–Otherwise, after this cold morning (with temps in the single digits below and above zero) turns into the afternoon, this day will be comparatively tolerable
–Mostly sunny skies develop today with highs in the 20s and a slackening wind. Thank you, Universe
–For tonight, however, we have one more cold night before we get a two-day respite from the cold
–Because skies will be clear early, and winds will be light, temps will drop to either side of 10 degrees tonight, and then hold there as clouds build in and a more southerly flow develops
–For Wednesday, clouds will thicken and lower ahead of our next storm system which is a milder, rainy inland runner through the Great Lakes to our northwest
–The morning is cloudy, but precip arrives by early/mid afternoon, and could do so briefly as snow or sleet before changing to rain by sunset
–Expect highs in the mid to upper 30s. No accumulation is expected at this time
–As the mild flow envelops southern New England, lows will remain above freezing, landing in the mid 30s with steady rain, heavy at times
–Rain continues, heavy at times, on Thursday, as a positively-tilted storm trains heavier rains over the region, especially east of I-91 and south of Rt. 9
–As you can see in the attached graphic, one to two inches of rain is expected, and some street flooding may occur, as rain has nowhere to run off or seep into the ground given recent super cold air
–By Thursday around dinner time, another less-intense Arctic lobe will be swinging in behind the departing storm, and could change us back to snow for a time and result in some coatings, especially over the BLTs (Berkshires, Litchfields and Taconics), SVT and the western hilltowns
–Highs Thursday will be mild, in the low 40s, but will drop into the low 20s at night as precip quits
–Friday and Saturday are fair weather days, with highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits as high pressure builds into the region
–The Sunday-through-Tuesday period continues to be monitored for at least some snow shower activity from a northern stream disturbance, but also for coastal storm development
–If coastal lows can phase with northern stream waves, we could get a substantial winter storm to develop during this last part of January, but for now, it’s just a low potential.

I will stay on top of it for you. Have a great day!