[SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A SQUALL POSSIBLE TODAY… SCATTERED COATINGS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE PIKE AND IN THE BERKSHIRES… ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY, BUT STORM WILL PASS FARTHER NORTH, SO NO BIG DEAL… THE BIG STORY IS MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON SATURDAY WITH BELOW-ZERO WIND CHILLS BY SATURDAY NIGHT… BLUSTERY WEEKEND AHEAD… SNOW STILL POSSIBLE TUESDAY BUT TREND IS SOUTH FOR NOW… WATCH FOR SOME SLICK SPOTS ALONG/SOUTH OF PIKE THIS AM FROM EARLIER SNOW SHOWERS… 6:50AM WED]

Good morning folks, I got a good night’s sleep and I’m ready to run a marathon. Well, really, I’m ready to walk around the block, but you gotta start somewhere!!

I’m going to start off with the Nerd Report. You can scroll down if you just want the Weather Report.

NERD REPORT
Our fairly boring winter continues. We’ve got cold-enough air around, and we have a negative Arctic Oscillation (wobbly polar vortex that allows Arctic air pockets down into the mid-latitudes, that being the WMass region), and we even have had some blocking to our north.

Sometimes you have key teleconnections (large-scale, di-pole atmospheric/oceanic patterns featured in my 2021 calendar this year) that line up. However, if other factors don’t play along, we ain’t getting big snow storms here.

One of those key teleconnections other than the AO and NAO is the EPO, or Eastern-Pacific Oscillation, and that refers to whether or not there is a big ridge or big trough in western Canada to near Alaska.

Big ridge, and it sends cold Arctic air southeast towards us.

Big trough, and the opposite happens.

We have more troughs in that region, and so we get air from the Pacific along with more zonal (west to east) flow, which gives us these moisture-starved, snow showery waves, Clipper lows, and the occasional flat tracker that sometimes runs through us and sometimes runs south of us.

Anyway, I just wanted to point that out this morning. Now here’s Dave with the weather.

WEATHER REPORT
We’ve already had some snow showers overnight, and coatings have been observed over Litchfield County CT, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Hampden County had some too.

More scattered snow showers are expected today with scattered coatings, and we can’t rule out a snow squall that could drop a half-inch to an inch of snow, given the steep lapse rates moving into the region, which will encourage fast-rising air overhead.

Highs today will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s with lows bottoming out in the upper single digits to mid teens as clouds break up early, and re-thicken late at night.

For Thursday, a weaker wave will pass to our north and send a warm front toward the region.

This will bring more scattered snow showers through, with fresh scattered coatings possible. Highs will again be in the upper 20s to mid 30s with lows in the mid 20s as skies clear.

For Friday, we’ll experience the last day with above-freezing temps into at least the middle of next week. Highs will reach the mid to upper 30s under mostly sunny skies as high pressure builds in and a cold front approaches. Lows will be in the mid to upper teens.

After our cold frontal passage Friday night, the coldest air of the Winter arrives, accompanied by abundant sunshine.

You can see the North American temperature chart I’ve attached, and very cold air is positioned up near Hudson Bay and southeast Canada. We will get a modified piece of this Arctic air.

We will also be sandwiched (mmmm, sandwiches….) between high pressure to the west and a departing low to the east, which will help winds to gust out of the northwest to 30mph at times Saturday. With highs in the low to mid 20s, wind chills will be in the single digits in the high terrain and teens in the valley, so bundle up! Blustery!

Lows will only be in the single digits, and with continued breezy conditions, wind chills will drop below zero in spots Saturday night.

Sunday should see slackening winds with sunshine and highs again in the low to mid 20s and lows in the upper singles to low teens.

Monday will feature more clouds building from the south as we watch our flat-tracking winter storm system that MAY bring some snow to our region, especially south of the Pike.

Highs will be in the mid to upper 20s and similar for Tuesday.

Stay tuned for updates on this potential storm, and have a great day!