STORM ALERT: WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE BERKSHIRES, WESTERN HILLTOWNS, FRANKLIN COUNTY, NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY, SVT AND SWNH FOR SNOW AND SLEET ON MONDAY… WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING… 6:05PM FRI…
Good evening everybody, I hope you had a great day, it certainly became milder than expected which was a nice surprise.
Our cold front was delayed a bit, but is now tracking southeast through the region with temps dropping into the teens in southern VT and the Berkshires, with 20s and 30s east and southeast of there.
Wind gusts have been reaching speeds of 35mph at times as well, which is contributing to wind chill as cold air advection continues overnight, and low air temps eventually bottom out into the low single digits above zero to the high single digits below zero.
This will drop wind chill readings into the -10º to -30º range, which is not only a heck of a lot of fun, but as Little Richard used to say about Jimi Hendrix, it’ll make your big toe shoot up in your boot!
Well, maybe it’ll make your big toe freeze and fall off, is probably more like it.
In other words, protect your animals and pets, and don’t stay outside without covering exposed skin for any length of time (15-30+ mins), or you risk getting frostbite, and as great as that sounds, it’s not really.
North winds will gust to 35mph over night, and slacken down to 30mph by tomorrow morning, and then to 25mph (in gusts) by Saturday afternoon.
With Saturday highs in the single digits to low teens, let’s just say it’ll be bundle time. Lows tomorrow night go below zero again, this time with light wind.
Sunday is cold and sunny, highs low to mid 20s, and then clouds build late from the south with lows dropping into the teens with snow likely arriving before midnight, the way it looks now, let’s say by 10pm in northern CT and midnight up in SVT/SWNH. #Extrapolate
NEW CONSIDERATIONS FOR MONDAY’S STORM
–We’re going to have very powerful southeasterly to easterly low level jet screaming at 80mph about a mile up above the WMass region
–We will have very cold air at the surface, as copious moisture is shoved into, up and over this cold dome in place AT NIGHT, when it’s harder to dislodge cold, dense air
–The potential exists for heavy snow to move in after midnight, and fall at rates of 1 to 2″ per hour over the east facing slopes of the Berkshires, western hilltowns, southern Greens, Taconics, Litchfield Hills, and northern Worcester Hills up into eastern Cheshire County NH
–If the wind component is easterly enough, shadowing may occur over the Pioneer Valley, with less precip there, and more on either side
–The storm track is still not locked in, and now the potential exists for a secondary low to form near Long Island, which could hold in the cold air longer
I still think we’re going to see a front-end thump of snow during the pre-dawn hours, with a change to sleet at some point early to mid Monday morning, likely from Northampton south and east, possibly up to Greenfield south and east, with a change to plain rain from Springfield south and east by later morning.
The dry slot punches through around noon or so, precip goes to drizzle/freezing drizzle, and then wraparound scattered snow showers move in later in the afternoon and evening on west winds gusting over 30mph.
I still think we’ll see some scattered power outages in the morning where wet snow combines with southeasterly wind gusts to 35mph with fast-accumulating snowfall.
I’m sticking with 1-4″ from Northampton south and east in central/eastern Hampshire/Hampden counties, southern CMass and northern CT in Hartford, Tolland and Windham Counties.
I’m going with 3-7″ in Litchfield County CT, the southern Taconics of E.NY, the western hilltowns of Hampden and Hampshire Counties, central/eastern Franklin County, northern Worcester County and Cheshire County NH.
I’m going to move to 5-10″ in the central/northern Berkshires/Taconics, all of southern VT, and western Franklin County.
As every future situation in life is, it’s fluid, so stay tuned for updates and potential changes in our Monday storm outlook, and I will update again in the morning.
Have a great night!
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7:00AM-FRI: WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE REGION FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING… TEMPS DROP IN THE AFTERNOON AND WIND PICKS UP… VERY COLD AND FAIR SATURDAY, COLD AND FAIR SUNDAY… SNOW ARRIVES AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CAUSES A MESSY MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WITH PLOWABLE SNOW FOR SOME… SNOW CHANGES TO SLEET AND RAIN FOR SOME AS MORNING WEARS ON… WIND SHIFTS FROM SOUTHEAST TO THE WEST BY LATER AFTERNOON….
Good morning folks, temps are in the 20s and 30s to start our day, so get outside and rejoice at the comparative mildness, because The Coldening is Happening. We’ve also got plenty to discuss regarding our impactful Monday winter storm, but first I’ve got a note from our local and delicious sponsor, #TandemBagelCo, with a new location in West Springfield, MA.
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A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR:
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DISCUSSION:
Good morning everybody, we have a lot of weather changes coming up, and in terms of the big picture, this current spate of Winter conditions is going to continue to flex through early February the way it looks now, with continued shots of cold Canadian and Arctic air, so we’ve basically entered the heart of the Winter of 2021-2022.
The three main topics of discussion today are 1. the upcoming cold snap and associated wind and wind chill tonight into tomorrow night, 2. the winter storm for late Sunday night into early Monday afternoon featuring snow, sleet, rain and wind, and 3. another cold snap by mid-to-late next week with more potential for wintry weather at that time.
ARCTIC COLD IS COMING
For this morning, we’re doing ok for mid-January standards in the WMass region with temps in the 20s and 30s to start the day.
However, our morning will be the “warmest” part of the day as a sharp Arctic cold front is lingering to our northwest, and will be pulled southeast through our region by a powerful ocean storm that is currently deepening rapidly over the open Atlantic, destined to paste Nova Scotia with a major snowstorm overnight.
That storm has spread some partial cloudiness into parts of our region, and that will decrease as the day wears on with more sunshine, as well as increasing north winds by afternoon.
Our highs today will crest into the low to mid 30s by about noon, then start precipitously falling throughout the afternoon all the way through tonight, bottoming out under clear skies into the low single digits above zero to high single digits below zero (2º to -9º as an example).
In addition, north winds are going to pick up and gust 25-40mph later this afternoon and overnight into early tomorrow morning, due to the strong pressure gradient between a massive high pressure system north and west of us, and the Nova Scotia Nor’easter low center well east of us.
In fact, the Cape and Islands may gust over 60mph tonight, so outages are expected down that way as they are closer to the low center.
VERY LOW WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT
All of this will combine to create a situation where you must dress in layers if heading out late, and cover as much exposed skin as possible, as you can develop frostbite in 15-30 minutes in these kinds of conditions.
Wind chills will get down to 30 below zero in the Berkshires, western hilltowns and much of southern VT, and down to 20 below zero elsewhere, so bundle up!
THE WEEKEND
We’ve got plenty of sunshine to enjoy for the weekend, but it’ll be a cold pair of days in mid-January, to be sure.
Highs Saturday will only reach the single digits to the low teens. The wind will back out of the north to the northwest, especially during the first half of the day, with gusts of 20-30mph, so wind chills will still be below zero at times, but not dangerously so.
Wind should slacken by evening, as radiational cooling maximizes under clear skies, dry air, and calm/light wind, with lows correspondingly dropping to or below zero for many of us overnight.
By Sunday, we’ll raise our temps up into the low to mid 20s under sunny skies, with clouds increasing in the evening.
Lows looks to drop at least into the low to mid teens before halting their downward progress due to skies becoming overcast, as our storm starts to approach from the south, so we’ll have plenty of cold air to get a good thump of snow on the front end of this system, which I believe will lay down at least 2-5″ before anyone sees a changeover to sleet.
MONDAY WINTER STORM SETUP
–On Sunday, a surface low will dive southeast into the Deep South, while an upper level system positions in to the northwest of this surface low
–They begin to phase early, meaning, before the surface low reaches the coast, somewhere over the Smokey Mountains of western NC
–This likely causes the low to close off and tilt negatively (NW to SE orientation) along the southern Appalachians and draws the storm northeast up the eastern seaboard, but inland of the coast
–At this time, it appears that the low center will run right through eastern NY or WMass, though it’s not set in stone.
–The upper low will pass west of that track
–The heaviest snows typically call west of the upper low track, which means that the best chance for all snow from this storm will be over the Hudson Valley into the Taconics of eastern NY and parts of the Berkshires and southern Green Mountains
–Closed upper lows like this one can also generate their own cold air, which may help to prolong snow and sleet in areas east of the Berkshires, but that is uncertain right now
–In addition, the cold air will take a bit to scour out of the WMass region, so this adds to the complexity of the forecast
–It does appears like several inches will fall for everybody before any change to sleet or rain occurs, but I will have to iron that out over the next couple of days
–For now it appears that 2-5″ is likely for everybody, with at least 4-8″ in the Berkshires, western hilltowns, Franklin County and SVT/SWNH, and possibly more like 6-12″ if we get a more easterly track or the upper low holds the cold longer
–Some areas may see over a foot of snow with this storm, but right now I believe that would be well west into NY state
TIMING
–Snow should arrive by or just after midnight and thump as strong moisture advection moves in
–Everywhere should be covered with snow by dawn on Monday morning which will impact the morning commute
–Sleet and rain will start to mix in over parts of northern CT by early to mid morning
–The storm is progressive and will be out of here by noon or early afternoon as a dry slot punches through the region, leading to drizzle or freezing drizzle
–Some back end snow showers are possible as southeast winds gusting over 30mph during the morning flips to the west and gusts Monday afternoon into the night
–Highs Monday will be in the 30s, with lows in the teens
–Fair weather arrives Tuesday into Wednesday with highs in the 20s Tuesday and the 30s Wednesday before another cold front slices through the region and reestablishes the cold by late week, with some more snow showers possible
–The CPC guidance is indicating that well below cold temperatures are expected through end of the month, so we have to watch out for continued potential winter storms
Please stay tuned for updates on our Monday winter storm, as it is not set in stone in terms of amounts, impacts, etc., but it’s starting to come into focus, and it looks quite impactful.
Have a great day, stay tuned for updates, and I hope things go your way today!