7:30pm Update [SNOW CHANCES DIMINISH FOR SVT AND NW MA]… WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES/TACONICS AND SVT… WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR SVT, BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE RELEGATED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET… HEAVY RAIN MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL ABOUT 7-9AM BEFORE IT LIFTS NORTH AND OUT OF OUR REGION… SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40-50MPH OVERNIGHT, THEN BLOW OUT OF THE WEST TO 30-35MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON… (7:30pm Wed)
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Good evening peoples of The Golden West, as my Dad likes to call our region.
Aside from some drizzle and fog patches, we should be mostly dry overnight with lows in the mid to upper 30s.
Strengthening low pressure will push NNE into northern NY state, keeping us on the warm side of the storm, with the storm’s cold front catching up to and merging with its warm front, which will create what’s called an “occluded” front.
Another wave of low pressure will form along this occluded front and pass over our region early tomorrow morning.
This will bring the chance for a thunderstorm overnight, so don’t be surprised if you hear some rumbles before dawn tomorrow morning.
In addition, moderate to heavy rain will move through in about a 6-hour window from 2am-8am generally speaking.
We can expect anywhere from .75″ to 1.25″ of rainfall, in general, and while a coating to an inch or two can’t be ruled out in northwest MA (northern Berkshires, western hilltowns of Hampshire and Franklin counties) as well as in western Bennington county and eastern Windham County (both elevated river valley regions), it’s not looking likely.
The best chance of a coating to 2″ will be in elevated areas between 1500-2000 feet in northwest MA, eastern NY and southern VT, with the best chance for 2-4″ between 2000-3000 feet, and over 4″ above 3000 feet.
I just feel that the storm is too far west, and we’ll have too intense a southerly flow to be overcome by cooler air aloft and heavy precip dragging that down to the surface below 2000 feet. We shall see.
Rain and snow ships out by 10am as a dry slot punches northward through the region.
Partial sunshine will develop tomorrow and while highs will reach the low to mid 40s, westerly winds will gust to 30mph or so as colder air comes in and drops lows into the low to mid 20s.
A major lake effect snow event will set up and blast the ‘Dacks with feet of snow as a “mega band” will connect from Lake Superior through Lake Huron and finally through Lake Ontario.
The effect in our region will be for some light accumulations from snow showers in southern VT Thursday night and again Friday night, with that band shifting south with time to affect the Taconics and Berkshires, and eventually the Litchfields by Friday night into Saturday.
Otherwise, expect cold and fair weather Friday through Monday with highs in the low to mid 30s in the valley terrain and upper 20s in the high terrain of our region.
Have a great night, and please remember that Your Contributions tonight Help Sustain this Community Weather Resource for 2020 and beyond… Join Dave Hayes The Weather Nut’s 2020 Support Network by clicking below, and thank you!
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[WIND ADVISORIES NOW POSTED FOR NORTHERN BERKSHIRES / TACONICS AND SOUTHWEST VT… WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES NOW POSTED FOR SOUTHERN VT WEST OF BRATTLEBORO] SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TODAY LEADS TO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER NIGHT WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE… RAIN CHANGES TO HEAVY WET SNOW ABOVE 1500 FEET IN ELEVATION AS EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUST TO 50MPH IN THE HIGH TERRAIN, CAUSING SOME OUTAGES IN SVT… WINDS KICK AROUND TO THE WEST AND BLOW TO 35MPH WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST MA AND SVT THURSDAY EVE INTO FRIDAY…(7:10am Wed)
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**Your Contributions Today Help Sustain this Community Weather Resource for 2020 and beyond… Join Dave Hayes The Weather Nut’s 2020 Support Network by clicking below, and thank you!**
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Good morning everybody, we definitely saw more rain last night than originally expected for some, but that has dwindled to a few showers before 7am this morning.
Temps hung just above freezing so as not to cause any localized freezing rain/drizzle problems this morning, but patchy fog has developed, with temps in in the low 30s to near 40 degrees in spots.
We’ve got lots of changes on the way with dynamic weather shifts, so allow me to hop into The Bulletization Mobile(TM) which now runs on double-dashes… it’s new and improved! But wait! There’s more!
SUMMARY
–Any remnant rain showers dissipate with time this morning. A few more are possible during the day.
–Expect highs to crest into the low to mid 40s under cloudy skies with patchy fog early
–For tonight, low pressure will be lifting northeast through western NY and into southeast Canada
–Secondary low pressure will form and track northeast right through CT and MA
–This will focus heavy rain into the region after midnight, and a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out
–Lows will drop into the mid to upper 30s
–In addition, before the storm and its occluded front pass through, east-southeasterly winds will be gusting to 50mph over northern portions of the Berkshires, northwest hilltowns, central/northern Taconics, and southern VT overnight and into Thursday morning
–Furthermore, cold air will be crashing into the region aloft, and for elevations above 1500 feet we should see anywhere from 2-6″ of snow, heaviest along and north of Rt. 9 and up Route 100 in southern VT near Mt. Snow and Stratton and points west into eastern Bennington County
–Any rain and snow ships out to the northeast between 8-10am tomorrow
–Westerly winds will kick up behind the departing low, and should gust to 35mph in the afternoon, evening and possibly into Friday morning as well, with clearing skies and dropping temperatures
–Thursday highs will rise into the low 40s or so, but then drop into the 20s at night
–Some lake effect snow showers are expected to reach the northern Taconics/Berkshires and southern VT Thursday night into Friday
–Some areas of the Adirondacks will receive FEET of snow in their first real lake effect event of the Winter
–Friday looks generally fair, but with more clouds than sun and highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s, and with lows in the teens
–A fair but cold weekend is on the way with increasing sunshine as the weekend wears on and highs in the mid 20s to low 30s with lows in the teens
–Monday looks a bit milder and sunny before more rain arrives next Tuesday with possible wintry mix early in the morning in the usual high terrain areas