SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES, SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY, AND NORTHWESTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY… WIND ADVISORIES HAVE REPLACED ALL HIGH WIND WARNINGS, WHICH HAVE EXPIRED… GUSTS TO 50MPH EXPECTED INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS…
(10:30pm Monday)
Good evening everybody, the wind continues to howl tonight as our pressure gradient is still strong, though slightly past peak. You can see in the attached current surface pressure map how tight isobars are still over the region, but looser ones are going to move in tomorrow.
For tonight, winds will sustain 20-30mph and gust to 50mph, and then slacken tomorrow to gusts of 25-40mph out of the northwest. Then, tomorrow night will be even more calm, with gusts to 25mph at times.
In addition, light accumulations are possible tonight in the aforementioned regions where our snow band continues. It will weaken with time, but the combination of snow and wind will cause visibility in northwest MA tonight.
Hang in there folks, it won’t last forever. Good night…
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WINTER HANGS ON AND FLEXES INTO EARLY MARCH… HIGH WIND WARNINGS EXPIRE THIS EVENING, BUT WIND ADVISORIES LIKELY TO REPLACE THEM AS STRONG TO EVEN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CONTINUE… LOTS OF OUTAGES AND DOWNED TREES/WIRES TODAY WITH PROPERTY DAMAGE… PLEASE POST YOUR PICS AND REPORTS BELOW… HOPE EVERYONE REMAINED UNINJURED… PLOWABLE FLUFFY SNOWFALL LOOKING PROBABLE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING… MORE WINTRY WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY WITH COLD WEATHER NEXT WEEK… “NOT SO FAST, SPRING” SAYS WINTER….LONG COMPREHENSIVE REPORT TONIGHT, GET YOUR POPCORN READY… (6:35PM MONDAY)
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TODAY'S WIND EVENT
Good evening everybody, it has been a rough day across the region as expected, with numerous outages, trees down, limbs down, power lines down, and property damage to cars, homes, outbuildings, fences, land, and more. I posted pics from western mass news earlier, so you can scroll down for that link.
MEMA POWER OUTAGE MAP
Tens of thousands of power outages continue, so click below to see how things are at the moment.
LINK: http://mema.mapsonline.net/public.html
I have also attached some wind event safety maps to this post, so download those if you find them useful.
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PEAK WIND GUSTS (wind gust reports aren't always 100% accurate, but this is the best I have for now)
Adams, MA: 69mph
Albany, NY: 61mph
Bradley Airport: 63mph
Bennington, VT: 49mph
Brattleboro, VT: 37mph
Blue Hill Obs (Milton, MA): 72mph
Easthampton: 49mph
Keene, NH: 39mph
Mt. Tom, Easthampton, MA: 76mph (hurricane force!)
North Adams: 63mph (other report – 66mph)
Orange, MA: 58mph
Peru, MA: 60mph
Pittsfield: 61mph
Turners Falls: 43mph
Westfield, MA: 62mph
Worcester Airport: 63mph
NWS LINK FOR MORE GUST REPORTS:
https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201902251914-KALY-NOUS41-PNSALY
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WIND DAMAGE REPORTS
Again, please post your pics, videos, stories, experiences and damage reports below this post.
There have been hundreds of official reports across southern New England today. Click the following link for a sampling of damage reports:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=LSR&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
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FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
Strong to damaging winds will continue early this evening, and into the overnight period, though wind will SLOWLY start to slacken by morning.
While westerly wind gusts could still blow to 60mph at times early on, we should start to see peak gusts fall back into the 40-50mph range later tonight and overnight (see attached map). It will be a loud night for some, and a cold one for those who lost power and don't get it back until tomorrow.
Check on your neighbors, especially the elderly folks who may be struggling this evening. May everyone be safe and warm, or returned to such conditions quickly.
WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO FOR SOME
The hardest hit area of the Berkshires, western hilltowns and SVT will see below-zero wind chills by tomorrow morning, and in some cases 10 to 15 below zero (see attached map). This will combine with low air temps in the high single digits to low teens.
Scattered snow showers will be possible during the first half of tonight over SVT, northern Berkshires/Taconics, and western hills with a coating to half inch of additional accumulation possible.
Then winds turn more northwest, and the lake effect will lose steam dying out over the southern Berks/Taconics, eastern Catskills and Litchfields with dustings possible.
For tomorrow/Tuesday, it will still be blustery and cold with highs in the upper teens in the high terrain and into the low/mid 20s in the valley and lower terrain areas of WMass, CMass and N.CT. Winds will gust 25-35mph at times.
Lows will PLUNGE into the low single digits with gusts over 20mph possible, producing wind chills below zero again in spots under mostly clear skies.
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PLOWABLE SNOWFALL POSSIBLE WED INTO THURS
As we pass into Wednesday, I will be watching an Alberta Clipper system tracking west to east along the southerly boundary of Arctic air positioned over southern Canada.
We start off mostly cloudy Wednesday morning, with light snow breaking out by early afternoon across the region. Snow may become moderate in intensity overnight and last into Thursday morning.
For now, it looks like two to four-tenths of an inch of water could fall (see attached map through 2am Thursday), and given that it will only be in the low 20s for highs and teens for lows, this snow should be fluffy with more like a 15:1 ratio of inches of snow to inch of water.
EARLY CALL ON SNOW AMOUNTS
This should produce a 2-5" snowfall across the region, highest in the hills, with a few half foot amounts possible by Thursday late morning.
Thursday will become a partly sunny day with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s and lows in the teens.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY STORM?
Then all eyes are on yet another storm system that will feature a double barrel low pressure system. At the moment, it looks like the inside running parent low will weaken and give way to a developing secondary coastal low.
This could produce some snow to mix Friday evening, with more snow or mix possible Saturday, but for now, there is a lot of uncertainty so stay tuned.
COLD FIRST WEEK OF MARCH/COASTAL STORM
And if that wasn't enough, we are looking to be cold for the first week of March, going into the second week. There remains a signal for a coastal storm by March 7 or 8, which if it comes together, could be a legit coastal winter storm, but it's a ways away. Stay tuned!
2-YEAR CONWAY TORNADO ANNIVERSARY TODAY
Two years ago this evening, an F1 Tornado ripped through the western hilltowns of Goshen and Conway, also causing damage in Chesterfield and Ashfield before lifting. Luckily no one was killed.
I have a whole section dedicated to this tornado (my personal story, atmospheric setup, and facts) in a free PDF file that I give away when you sign up for my free weekly newsletter set to launch this Spring, if you'd like to keep in touch outside of this platform:
https://westernmassweather.com/dhtwn-nutletter-signup/
Just click that link, provide your name and email, and you will get the report to download.
SOME CONWAY TORNADO FACTS:
–Winds blew as high as 110mph near Pumpkin Hollow south
of Conway center
–The tornado tracked 5 miles through Conway, MA for as many minutes
–The max width of the twister reached 200 yards in northern sections of the Conway state forest
–It was the first tornado ever recorded in February in Massachusetts since records have been kept beginning in 1950
–Several buildings were damaged or destroyed, and roofing material was wrapped around one tree like a
ribbon. An entire side of a house was torn off, revealing the interior
Today was an echo for many of that horrible evening two years ago, so I know it is a re-traumatizing experience for some today. All we can do when we are re-triggered by anything as painful as that is to slow WAY down. Put on some music that is relaxing and peaceful, have some tea, and force ourselves to breathe as slowly in and out as we can. We can just become breathers of air. That’s our only purpose. Breathe s l o w l y through the nose, hold for a couple of seconds, and breathe s l o w l y out through the mouth. At the end of the exhale, hold for a couple of seconds, then repeat the whole sequence. You can do this while looking at a beautiful photograph, something that makes you feel love or loved, or at peace, or centered, you get the idea.
Ok folks, that does it for tonight, I will try to answer questions later on. This dude has a date with dinner, and for that, I am most grateful. <3
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HIGH WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY... WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY, AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR SOME FOLKS IN THE N. BERKSHIRES, N. TACONICS, W. FRANKLIN, NW. HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES AND SVT FROM UPSLOPE SNOW AND LAKE EFFECT... WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO LATER TONIGHT...SOME OUTAGES EXPECTED... (5:55am Monday)
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Good morning everybody, a temperature inversion in valley areas kept winds of 50+ knots a mile up from mixing down to the ground too much earlier in the overnight.
However, that's been changing and we'll continue to get windier across the region this morning. It's been gusty over the Berkshires and hilltowns, with wind gusts to 45mph measured in PIttsfield at 2am.
As the day wears on, and sun peeks through at times along with the low level jet moving closer, mixing will become more pronounced, and wind speeds will increase in response to our incoming pressure gradient. Highs will be in the mid to upper 20s with mostly cloudy skies with some sunny periods/breaks.
Westerly wind gusts of 35-50mph seem likely in the valley and lower terrain areas such as central/eastern Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden Counties, southern Worcester County and northern CT. Even higher gusts over the higher terrain of the Berkshires, Litchfields, Taconics, southern Greens, southwest NH and northern Worcester County could see 50-65mph wind gusts. We can't even rule out an isolated gust to 70mph across the southern Greens!
LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL
In addition, we may see a rare lake effect event setup where the winds line up just right (in a sort of west-west-northwest angle) to produce a lake effect streamer hundreds of miles long that emanates from Lake Huron and passes over Lake Ontario as well, which could reach into SVT, the northern Berks and West County (i.e. western Franklin County).
A double laker!
Some places could see coatings of snow today, but we can't rule out a couple of inches for some towns, either. Blowing snow would be observed if this is all realized.
The core of the wind moves through late morning and through the afternoon, with a lessening of the wind tonight. However, it will still be gusting 30-40mph at times, more out of the northwest with time, as lows drop into the teens.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND
--A lobe of Arctic air moves in for Tuesday and Wednesday
--Highs Tuesday will be in the low 20s with mostly sunny skies, and wind gusts to 30mph at times, so still blustery
--Lows will be in the single digits
--Wednesday highs will be in the low to mid 20s with lows in the teens
--A weak Clipper system still looks to bring snow showers or a period of light accumulating snow.
I will post a full report this evening for our week ahead. Until then, have a great day, hold on to you hats and steering wheels, and keep alert for falling tree limbs or even trees. It looks to be a wild day! Safe travels!
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