[WED-6:55AM] FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN VT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING… INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON, AND CONTINUE TONIGHT, INCREASING BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AND PEAKING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50MPH POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED OUTAGES… MILDER TODAY, VERY MILD THURSDAY, COPIOUS RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING…
TODAY’S DATE: Wednesday, February 16, 2022
Good morning everybody, it’s very cold once again as you head out the door with temps in the single digits and teens. However, big changes with temperature, wind and precipitation are on the way before week’s end, but before we dive into the details below, let’s check a note from our local and delicious sponsor, #TandemBagelCo, with a new location in West Springfield, MA.
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A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR:
DHTWN Is Sponsored by Members, Patrons & Tandem Bagel Company: No matter the weather, Tandem Bagel is always there for you at several valley locations to make your mornings brighter! With bagels baked fresh daily, house-whipped cream cheese, coffee, and tons of lunch options, Tandem is the perfect quick stop for lunch, breakfast, or a coffee and bagel to go. Find them in Easthampton, Northampton, Hadley, Florence (and now West Springfield!), or use their super-streamlined online ordering tool by visiting their website: https://www.tandembagelco.com
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***DHTWN WEATHER REPORT***
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DAILY CELESTIAL
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 6:44am this morning
–OUR STAR WILL SET AT: 5:24pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 10 hours and 40 minutes
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–OUR MOON WILL RISE AT: 5:23pm this afternoon
–OUR MOON WILL SET AT: 7:35am tomorrow morning
–MOON PHASE: Just reached full several hours ago, now Waning Gibbous 99.8%
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DAILY TERRESTRIAL (ZoneCast)
ZONE 1 (Northern Region)
Southern VT, Southwest NH, N. Taconics NY
–High Temps: Mid 30s Mountains to Low 40s Lower Elevations
–Low Temps: Low to Mid 30s
–Wind: Lighter early, then southerly gusts 20-30mph by this afternoon and overnight
–Skies: Partly sunny
–Precipitation: None
ZONE 2 (Central Region)
WMass, N. CMass, N. Litchfield County, C./S. Taconics NY
–High Temps: Upper 30s to Low 40s
–Low Temps: Mid to Upper 30s
–Wind: Lighter early, then southerly gusts 25-35mph by this afternoon and overnight
–Skies: Partly sunny
–Precipitation: None
ZONE 3 (Southern Region)
S. CMass, S. Litchfield County, NC.CT, & NE.CT
–High Temps: Low 40s
–Low Temps: Mid to Upper 30s
–Wind: Lighter early, then southerly gusts 20-30mph by this afternoon and overnight
–Skies: Partly sunny
–Precipitation: None
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DISCUSSION:
Good morning folks, the cold temperatures are leaving the building, so we grin and bear it (I guess we could crumble and cry, too, but we’re almost there, so hang on!).
We’ve got the departing influence of very strong high pressure over us, which has crested over 1040 millibars for any data nerds out there.
We can expect partly sunny skies on average, though there will be periods of mostly sunny skies to be sure, especially earlier this morning. Highs will generally range from the upper 30s to low 40s.
WINDIER CONDITIONS INCOMING
The first change to speak of is related to multiple low centers located out over the central Plains up into the western Great Lakes region, and the resulting pressure gradient between those lows and our massive high currently over New England. This gradient will track east into our region, causing wind to increase by this afternoon and lasting into Friday.
With the high over us now, we’re experiencing calm to light wind, but as the day progresses, that tighter pressure gradient will track east into the WMass region leading to increasingly gusty southerly winds reaching 25-35mph by the evening, with lows generally in the mid to upper 30s (though some places north of the MA border will dip to the freezing mark).
For the Thursday and Friday period, big changes are afoot as strong southerly flow continues to press into New England.
Our high will be long gone, folks, and that means the low pressure centers that will track well northwest of us, will combine their southwesterly flow with clockwise circulation around our departed high pressure to produce a southerly wind siphon into and through New England Thursday, peaking Thursday night into early Friday morning and then abating by Friday night.
THE MILDENING IS HAPPENING
Temps are coming way up on Thursday in response to this southerly flow, and will reach well into the 50s, with some folks possibly touching 60º in the Willimantic CT to Worcester MA region, points southeast.
Winds will gust 30-40mph by Thursday night, and then peak at night reaching speeds of 35-50mph, so some isolated power outages can be expected.
FLOOD WATCHES ARE UP FOR SVT
In addition, while some Thursday daylight rain showers are possible in the northern Berkshires/Taconics and southern VT by afternoon, the main area of rain holds off until after sunset when it will be distributed in a showery fashion, and fall heavily at times Thursday night into early Friday morning.
Lows will only dip into the low to mid 40s, and showers will possibly end as some snow west of the I-91 corridor as the cold front slices through the region.
The Flood Watches are up mostly for the potential of ice jams to form up in southern VT. We are expected to receive half an inch to up to 1.25″ of rainfall, but when combined with rapidly warming temps, we’ll have to watch ice floes north and west of the SVT region to see if any jams form.
Friday looks breezy with gusts of 25-35mph out of the northwest as the low pulls away to our northeast.
Highs should be reached in the morning, cresting into the 45-50º range, before falling back during the day and dropping into the mid to upper teens at night for lows under clear skies.
The weekend looks a bit mixed, with a cold Canadian Clipper system working through the region on Saturday with highs in the 30s under partly sunny skies.
Some scattered snow showers are possible Saturday, and lows will drop into the mid to upper teens again as that little disturbance keeps on trucking east.
For Sunday, temps come up into the upper 30s to low 40s with more sunshine. Lows will dip into the upper 20s.
Monday looks fair and milder, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s, and then another storm is possible Tuesday into Wednesday, so we may be getting more active as we get milder for the second half of February.
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