Good evening everybody, we’ve got snow on the way with a storm on the way that will be tracking northeast through Ohio and PA destined to run right through New England, somewhere over the MA/CT border. Lows tonight will sit down into the upper 20s to low 30s, with some mid 20s already showing in SVT. Temps should hold steady as clouds increase.
Because the mid-level component of our low pressure system will track to our northwest, this will allow milder air to flow in aloft, and change many of us over to ice and rain by dawn or into the early morning hours after dawn.
SNOW AMOUNTS
However, I am concerned for a moderate snow/ice event along and north of the Route 2 corridor, with the potential for all snow along and north of the Route 9 corridor in southern VT and southwest NH where we could see a 5-7″ swath of snowfall, and maybe a touch more in a few spots. This is where the best lift and precipitation rates could generated, with some rates of up to 1″ per hour possible, especially toward Keene, NH, as seen in the attached frontogenesis map (frontogenesis just refers to the birth of fronts, in this case about a mile above our heads… fronts form where colder air draining south and milder air pushing north come together and have nowhere to go but UP, and rising air creates heavier precip rates).
This jackpot zone may also seep down into western Franklin County, northeast Berkshire County and perhaps towns like Plainfield in NW Hampshire County.
Generally, we can expect a coating to 1″ from northern CT up to about the MassPike, 1-3″ between the Pike and the Rt. 2 corridor in WMass and CMass, and 3-5″ from Rt. 2 corridor in WMass and CMass north into southern VT and NH, which would include all of Franklin County.
TIMING/CHANGEOVERS
Snow starts at midnight, give or take, then we turn to sleet or freezing rain briefly and into rain in north central and northeast CT up to the Pike.
Between the Pike and Rt. 2 and east of the western hilltowns of WMass through CMass, we should snow until about 4-5am, then turn to sleet and freezing rain for a couple of hours before changing to rain from Northampton east to Worcester and south by mid morning, with icing continuing in the Berkshires and western hilltowns. This goes for Litchfield County as well in NW CT and northern Worcester County which may hold on to colder air longer.
The northwestern hilltowns, northern Berkshires, and Franklin County may see snow and sleet hold into the mid morning before going over to more in the way of ice. How far the ice/snow line gets is not certain, but looks to reach somewhere near the MA/VT-NH border or maybe a bit north of there, with mostly snow north of that line.
All rain, ice and snow ships out by noon or early afternoon, and we start to cool down as westerly breezes start to bring in colder air.
Highs tomorrow will reach the mid to upper 30s in much of the region, but low to mid 30s is most likely north of Route 2. Temps will then plummet at night.
With remnant moisture in place, snow showers with fresh coatings are expected in the northern Berkshires / Taconics, and southern VT tomorrow evening.
Lows tomorrow night drop into the 15-20 degree range under clearing skies.
SWEET STRETCH FRIDAY THRU MONDAY
We’ve got 4 days of sunnier weather coming folks, but it will be cold initially.
Sunny on Friday, but a bit blustery especially early, with highs in the teens to 20s, and lows dropping to near 0 and in the single digits below zero, but possibly double digits below zero in the fresh snowpack areas of southwest VT and NH.
The weekend moderates as high pressure kicks out to the east, and with southerly flow, which will produce highs in the 35-40 degree range under partly sunny skies, with lows in the 20s.
Next chance of storminess is Tuesday into Wednesday.
Have a great night, and I will see you here before 7am tomorrow morning with an update of our storm in progress! Sleep well!
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[WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION FOR SNOW AND ICE] SVT, SWNH, WMASS, CMASS, NCT, ENY ALL HAVE ADVISORIES UP… SNOW ARRIVES BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN NWCT AND THE BERKSHIRES AND OVERSPREADS THE REGION THROUGH ABOUT 2AM OR 3AM BEFORE CHANGING TO ICE AND RAIN SOUTH OF THE PIKE… WE’LL MIX BY DAWN EVEN UP TOWARD MA/VT-NH BORDER BUT SNOW MAY HOLD NORTHERNMOST BERKSHIRES, HIGH TERRAIN OF SVT AND WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY… COLD AND DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE WEEKEND… (7am Wednesday)
Good morning everybody, hope you all slept well. We’ve got more accumulating snowfall on the way, along with more changes to ice and rain, and you know, for that I am to the Moon with Joy. They’ll have to name a new Full Moon after me called the Joy Moon for how thrilled I am with more changes to ice and rain. I mean, I’m just tickled every possible tickle-y color there is (including pink)… I’m literally bursting with excitement over more mixed precipitation! Hooray!
Ok, Dave, enough already, we get it, you want a snowstorm.
Great, can we move on now?
Yes… yes we can.
SUMMARY
–Winds have been gusting out of the NW over 20mph this morning with temps in the mid 20s to mid 30s
–Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected for today, with highs in the low to mid 30s
–In the meantime, low pressure will be pushing northeast through the Ohio Valley, destined for New England tomorrow morning
–Clouds will increase early tonight, and lows are expected to come to rest down near 30 degrees as snow arrives in the Litchfields, Berkshires, and southern Taconics by 10 or 11pm
–Snow will then overspread the region into the pre-dawn hours of Thursday morning
–With southwest flow developing at the surface and aloft, snow will change to ice and rain in northern CT during the pre-dawn hours and the mix line will start charging north
–By dawn (around 7am) it should be raining in northern CT up into the Springfield metro with sleet and freezing rain around or just north of Springfield up to at least the Route 2 corridor, if not kissing the VT and NH border towns, with snow north
–Somewhere in the northern two-thirds or northern halves of Bennington, Windham and Cheshire counties of SVT and SWNH, and possibly dipping into the northeast Berkshires and highest terrain of western Franklin and Hampshire Counties, a mix of snow and sleet may hold deeper in the morning
–It those areas where coldest air holds the longest that we should see 3-6″ of snowfall
–South of their down to the MassPIke in WMass and CMass we should see 1-3″ with ice and rain
–South of the Pike, generally speaking, we should see a coating to an inch with ice and then plenty of rain
–Precip quits by noon or early afternoon and ships out to our east
–Highs will reach the 35-40 degree range, then crash into the teens for lows Thursday night
–We will dry out except for portions of the Berkshires and SVT which should see some upslope snow showers with additional coatings possible
–Friday and Saturday are cold and sunny, with highs in the upper teens to mid 20s Friday and lows either side of 0 degrees, with highs in the 20s on Saturday and lows in the single digits to low teens
–Sunday and Monday look milder with highs in the 30s and 40s under mixed cloud skies, with the next chance of showers Monday night into Tuesday, with another mix event possible
Have a great day!