[ALERT] THURSDAY NIGHT ICING INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A CHANGE TO WET SNOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FRIDAY NIGHT BLACK ICE REFREEZE… STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL ICING EVENT ENDING AS SNOW… LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE TRACKED IN OFF THE OCEAN AND INTO CMASS THIS EVENING… 7:00pm Tues…
Good evening everybody, we’ve got some ocean effect snow showers tracking east to west into the southern half of Worcester County south of Rt. 2 and a bit into northeast CT. A few dustings might occur, but this will wane with time.
Due to cloud cover, lows will only hang near 20º overnight, and with southerly flow tomorrow, highs finally crest 40º for folks in the greater WMass region.
I will have a full report tomorrow morning that will detail Wednesday night into Thursday when a few showers are possible but when mostly dry weather should prevail with lows near freezing Wednesday night and highs again in the low 40s.
Some rain is expected starting early on Thursday with a first round of showery rains before we get a lull late in the afternoon, as it looks now.
However, it is the Thursday evening/night second round of precip lasting into Friday that continues to look problematic for travel and ambulation (i.e. walking).
We will be stuck in between a boundary, a girthy ribbon, really, of precipitation running the gamut from rain, to freezing rain, to sleet and snow.
The potential is there for some of us to get healthy glazes of freezing rain, light accumulations of sleet, and light to moderate accumulations of wet snow before it quits by Friday afternoon.
After that, Arctic air continues to overspread the region like thick cold molasses, and freezes everything SOLID Friday night with lows in the single digits.
Total liquid precipitation may exceed 1.5″, this one’s got some Gulf juice with it, folks.
This storm is looking like a potential mess for the MassPike corridor on northward (especially the farther north you go, as north of Rt. 2 will see the most in the form of ice and snow) for Thursday night into Friday.
I don’t have anymore details at the moment, other than to roughly say based on the way it looks now that a coating to 3″ of sleet and snow from the Pike north to the MA/VT-NH border, and 3-6″ in SVT/SWNH looks to be within the realm of possibility, thought that’s a broadbrush for now.
#SlopStorm2022 is looking more likely, so stay tuned and I will update you in the morning, and thanks for reading, as always.
—-
7:00AM-TUES: THE MILDENING IS INCOMING BUT IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN ON THURSDAY WILL CHANGE TO ICE AND SNOW STARTING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SPREADS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG A BOUNDARY OF MILD MOIST AIR SOUTHEAST AND COLD DRY AIR NORTHWEST… COLD, FAIR WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER WINTER STORM POSSIBLE SOMETIME IN THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME…
Good morning folks, another night of radiational cooling with fresh snow pack has temps down into the single digits for many, and some below zero. I promise you this the last of the fridge mornings for several days! We have milder air moving in through Thursday followed by a complicated mixed precipitation setup for Thursday night into Friday, but before we dive into the details below, let’s check a note from our local and delicious sponsor, #TandemBagelCo, with a new location in West Springfield, MA.
——————–
A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR:
DHTWN Is Sponsored by Members, Patrons & Tandem Bagel Company: No matter the weather, Tandem Bagel is always there for you at several valley locations to make your mornings brighter! With bagels baked fresh daily, house-whipped cream cheese, coffee, and tons of lunch options, Tandem is the perfect quick stop for lunch, breakfast, or a coffee and bagel to go. Find them in Easthampton, Northampton, Hadley, Florence (and now West Springfield!), or use their super-streamlined online ordering tool by visiting their website: https://www.tandembagelco.com
——————–
DISCUSSION:
Good morning peeps, may you meet this super cold morning trying to tamp you down with a slightly-invigorated bounce in your step, as if to say “you’re not the boss of me, Frigidness! I’ll show you, Wicked Coldness!” and other such stand-up-ishy reactions to the natural feelings that hints of Space on Earth will produce in a person on such a morning.
As for our weather, we’ve got high pressure up and down the east coast, so dry weather is expected with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. However, morning sunshine will dim first mid to late morning in CMass/NE.CT/SW.NH, and then in WMass/SVT/NW.CT by late morning and early afternoon as onshore flow blows low level clouds into the region.
For tonight, we’ll continue with mostly cloudy skies which will help along with southwest flow to keep lows above 20º – it’s a non-Christmas miracle!
For Wednesday, high pressure continues east and south of us, finally pumping enough southerly air in here to generate a legit Mildening with highs cresting into the upper 30s to low 40s with some melting of recent snowfall. Lows will drop to near freezing with isolated rain or snow showers Wednesday night.
The Thursday to Friday timeframe is our next bout of inclement weather, and it looks rather substantial, and impactful for some of us.
SETUP
We’re going to have low pressure zipping east in southeast Canada, well north of us. On the back/west side of that low, very strong high pressure will be building in and pushing southeast through central Canada into the northern plains and Great Lakes region. At the same time, our southeast ridge of high pressure will be positioned off of the VA/NC coastline directing mild and moist air southwest into New England. Lastly, copious Gulf moisture and warm air will be flowing north up the Mississippi Valley, meeting that super strong, Arctic cold high pressure which will induce cyclogenesis (i.e. a storm birth) along the clashing boundary zone between the two disparate air masses.
This low pressure system will then be directed east-northeast along that boundary as it slowly presses southeast toward New England. This will create a prodigious amount of lift in the atmosphere, and rain, ice and snow will be generated (rain south, ice in the middle, snow to the north).
This SlopSandwich(TM) will then overall track east toward New England Wednesday night and arrive at the CT/MA/VT-NY state line by mid to late morning Thursday starting as rain, with highs expected to reach the low to mid 40s as we’ll be on the warm side of this incoming storm system.
THE TRICKY PART
The challenge with this forecast will be determining how quickly southeast the cold Arctic air will travel into the WMass region, changing our rain over to freezing rain, sleet and eventually snow.
I think that model guidance often underestimates the power and strength of seeping, molasses-like Arctic cold at the surface. Between that, and determining just how strong high pressure will be, will help figure out how fast the cold air works in Thursday night into Friday morning.
The other picayune area of noteworthiness is to figure out how sharp that change from mild to cold will be aloft (the more vertical the cold front at all levels, the more we quickly go from freezing to sleet. The more slanted the change from SE at the surface to NW aloft could result in a prolonged freezing rain period creating even worse driving conditions especially in northwest MA, SVT and SNWH.
We should all change to snow sometime on Friday morning with light to moderate wet snow accumulations possible from southeast to northwest across the WMass region.
Lows Thursday night should dip into the upper 20s to low 30s as the colder air works in, and stay there for highs on Friday as we all likely turn to snow for at least a little while before preicp ends in the afternoon sometimes.
Arctic air then fully pushes in and freezes everything SOLID Friday night, so you will need to clear your paths and way, folks, as lows will crash into the single digits by early Saturday morning.
It will be cold and sunny this weekend with highs in the upper teens to 20s and lows in the single digits to low teens with another winter storm possible for Sunday night into early next week.
Our active winter pattern continues… have a great day!