Good evening folks, our storm continues to be on the docket for tomorrow night’s weather, and it looks to be a stormy evening, to be sure. I will attempt to short-n-sweetify this report (yeah, good luck, Hayes!):
STORM SETUP
–Tonight cools into the upper 20s for low temps, as clouds increase late
–On Monday morning, Arctic cold air will continue to dive southeast out of the northern Plains/Rockies into our upper low, currently over Arkansas and tracking east-northeast
–In response, our surface low will continue to strengthen out of Alabama and making a northeasterly beeline for Plattsburgh, NY in New York’s northern nook, as I like to call it
–High pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast is blocked by a convergence zone out in the Atlantic Ocean, so will slow down, and work with the surface and upper lows to pump up the jams, right on up into New England
WIND
–This will drive a low level jet streak a mile above our heads right through the WMass region, peaking between 6pm and midnight Monday night
–This will flow will also produce a southerly surge of anomalously mild air, with highs in the low 60s tomorrow!
–This is not good, because the warmer the surface temp, the more likely any low level temperature inversions can be overcome and mix down that faster moving river of air aloft (i.e. the jet streak)
–With winds a mile up expected to be blowing 70-85mph, we could see some strong surface gusts of 40-60mph mix down to the surface of the high terrain of WMass, as well as in CMass and northern CT, especially east of I-91 and south of I-90, as well as in the high terrain
–In much of southern VT, southwest NH, the Berkshires, and the Pioneer Valley of WMass, as along as the inversion can hold enough, we should see gusts more like 30-50mph during that 6-12pm timeframe
–Isolated power outages are expected, more east of the CT River than west of it
RAINFALL
–Rain arrives between 10am and noon, and continues until midnight, and we could see 1-2″ of rainfall from this system, with heavy downpours
–Street flooding is possible over any areas with persistent downpour activity
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
–In addition, there is a low chance for severe thunderstorms into northern CT tomorrow, and we can’t rule out a tornado in northeast CT, Rhode Island, and down into southeast MA
–Hail is not expected, but damaging wind gusts to 60mph are possible
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
–Our surface low and its rain and wind will long gone, but our upper low and its energy will still influence our weather during this period
–Remnant lift in the atmosphere from the upper low brings scattered showers to the region Tuesday with highs well into the 50s
–Colder air works in overnight, with lows in the low 30s
–A cold day is in store on Wednesday with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 30s to low 40s, and lows in the upper 20s
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
–High pressure builds into the region, which should produce plenty of sunshine and highs in the 40s
NEXT WEEKEND
–Another storm will be zipping across the country toward the east coast by late this coming week
–This system could have more cold air to work with, and may produce a mix of rain and snow showers both weekend days
–Some light snow accumulations are possible in southern VT, the Berkshires, and northwest MA in general, including the hilltowns
STAY WARM THIS WINTER
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