7:10AM-FRI: WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR SOUTHERN VT AND SOUTHWEST NH… WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL OF WMASS AND CMASS… WATCHES AND ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT FOR SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS… SOME AREAS WILL SEE OVER HALF A FOOT IN SVT/SWNH, AND POSSIBLY NORTHERNMOST MA… ALL PRECIP GOES BACK TO LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE ENDING AND LEADING TO A SUNNY, BLUSTERY SUNDAY… WINTER STRIKES BACK…
Good morning folks, I did not anticipate the warmth would last this deep into the morning, but here we are, and as a result, winds overnight have been gusting 25-45mph, with even a 54mph gust clocked at Adams, MA!
However, our cold front is on the march and pressing east into the Berkshires around the 7am hour, and this will set the stage for just-in-time snow and ice production over the region, starting tomorrow morning. We’ve got lots to run over, but before we hop, skip and jump into our salient weather details, I’ve got a note from our local and delicious sponsor, #TandemBagelCo, who just opened a new location in West Springfield, MA.
A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR:
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DISCUSSION
Good morning everybody, we’ve got a cold front sitting just west of New England this early morning, which was a slower progression than I though would transpire.
This has allowed temps to stay very warm for this time of year all night long, and has helped to mix stronger winds down to the surface overnight. I thought we’d see gusts of 20-30mph overnight, but we’ve seen 25-45mph gusts with some exceeding 50mph in very isolated spots.
We’ve got about 400 outages in Windham County VT this morning, so that may be why.
Essentially, the temps we have now are going to be our highs for the day, as temps slowly drop during the afternoon. West winds will gust up to 35mph behind the front, and we’ll enjoy a mostly sunny day with high clouds building late.
For tonight, we’ll continue to gradually cool and dry out, as high and mid level clouds build into the region.
Our storm system, which will be fairly weak, will produce an overrunning event featuring milder moist air riding over the top of just-in-time colder-enough and dry-enough air at our western MA regional surface.
After lows bottom out in the upper 20s to low 30s and our humidity lowers, that is when first flurries and snow showers will approach our CT/MA/VT-NY border early tomorrow morning, and may reach the ground in some areas just after sunrise.
Despite the expectation of marginal highs in the low to mid 30s tomorrow, the precip falling into that dry surface atmosphere will help cool the atmosphere enough to produce all snow at first.
As our storm tracks ENE out of the Ohio Valley and into PA and southern NY, another secondary low will rather timidly get its act together somewhat and track south of New England.
This will spread snow into the region, especially along and north of the MassPike.
South of there near the CT border and into CT, snow may quickly go to sleet, and it’s in that area where I think a coating to 2″ of snow and sleet is more likely than not. by afternoon, these areas should mix with or flip to rain the valleys and freezing rain in the high terrain west and east of the CT River, where ice glazing is possible.
North of the Pike we should see more like 2-5″ of snow and sleet into the early/mid afternoon before we mix with freezing rain or rain depending on elevation, but we may stay snow/sleet for longer.
These snow/ice lines are always tricky, so I will update this evening and tomorrow morning, of course, and I will be with you all day tomorrow throughout the storm, so stay tuned.
Expect lower amounts closer to the Pike and south of Greenfield in the valley itself, whereas the further north and in higher elevations the mid to high end of that three-inch range is expected.
Along and north of Rt. 2 now looks to be more of a 4-7″ snowfall with some sleet first mixing in by late afternoon and early evening there, and sleet may mix in all teh way to the VT/NH border, and possibly into the southern halves of Bennington, Windham and Cheshire Counties in SVT and SWNH, with all snow over the northern halves where we can’t rule out a 6-9″ snowfall accumulation as the precipitation output from this system looks more robust this morning.
For Saturday night where raining south of the Pike and icing in sleet or freezing rain at least to Rt. 2 in all of MA if not the VT/NH border, but then we should switch back to light snow after 1am or 2am, before precip ends before dawn, with lows bottoming out in the mid to upper 20s.
For Sunday, we’re blustery and cold with highs in the low to mid 30s and then we slacken the winds, clear the skies, dry the air, and drop like a ROCK into the upper singles to low teens for lows!
WINTER!
The upcoming week looks seasonably cold and mostly sunny with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s for Monday, and then the 30s widespread for Tuesday through Thursday.
By late week some storminess is possible towards Christmas, but we’ll start focusing on that on Sunday.
For now, I am focused on tomorrow and tomorrow night’s winter storm, so please stay tuned and I will keep you updated the whole way.
Have a great day!