6:55A-TUE: FLASH FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN HOISTED ALL ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS (INCLUDING S. BERKSHIRES, HAMPDEN COUNTY AND S. WORCESTER COUNTY) AND DOWN INTO NORTHERN CT FOR WEDNESDAY PM THROUGH THURSDAY… IDA’S REMNANTS SET TO BRING WIDESPREAD SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL… NICE DAY TODAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS INCLEMENT… FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS MORE PLEASANT… LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS SOME SHOWERS… TEMPS ARE COOLER OVERALL…

Good morning everybody, luckily our thunderstorms yesterday didn’t really get overly nasty or severe, although some did pack a punch here and there. We’ve got a much more serene day on the way after some patchy fog burns off in the Berkshires, eastern Franklin / southwest NH and a few other spots.

Today is the calm before the storm, as by Wednesday afternoon showers will work into the region, and especially at night and through Thursday, heavy rainfall arrives as Ida’s remnant low tracks south of New England and out to sea.

Thereafter Friday and Saturday look Autumnal, with a few more showers possible by Sunday night into Monday.

With that picture painted, let’s check a note from our sponsor, then dive into the discussion below that.

A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR
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DISCUSSION
A cold front is clearing our region this morning, with dewpoints having dropped into the upper 50s to mid 60s across much of the WMass region, whereas dewpoints on the Cape, for instance, are still in the low 70s!

This front continues trucking southeast, and away, ushering in much drier air for our Tuesday. We’ll have high clouds from Ida streaming in overhead, so filtered partial sunshine will rule our skies today. Highs will reach the mid 70s to low 80s with a light to breezy northwest wind.

For tonight, we’ll be dry with calm conditions and lows in the mid to upper 50s under partly cloudy skies, increasing toward dawn.

Wednesday is when we watch Ida’s remnant low center tracking northeast to east-northeast through the southern Ohio Valley and toward the Mid-Atlantic coastline.

As such, it will be a cloudier and hence cooler day with highs in the low to mid 70s as clouds increase and thicken as the day wears on.

The first showers from this system will arrive sometime in the afternoon, but should be scattered at first, as plenty of dry air will need to be overcome before more substantial rain can reach the ground with widespread coverage.

Highs Wednesday will rise into the low to mid 70s with lows in the mid to upper 50s. Highs on Thursday will only be in the mid 60s to low 70s, with lows dropping into the upper 40s to mid 50s… hello Fall feel!!!

SETUP
A zone of convergence (i.e. where two air masses meet up, press into each other, and have nowhere to go but rise skyward, condense, and create precipitation) will set up over southern New England Wednesday night and through Thursday, as a nearby jet stream will also be evacuating/diverging air at the upper levels up and away. This will act as a vacuum, additionally helping air to rise, resulting in heavy rain for many of us.

We don’t know exactly where this heavy rain stripe will set up, but right now, it appears like it is along and south of the Mass Pike in southern MA, southeast MA, CT and RI where 2-5″ of rain could fall. This would produce isolated areas of flash flooding, which is why the watches have been hoisted.

WIND
This storm will not be a big wind producer, but we should see gusts out of the northeast between 20-30mph at times, especially on Thursday. Northeast CT and southern CMass may see gusts over 30mph at times on Thursday specifically.

TIMING
Again, Wednesday afternoon is when first scattered showers waft through the region, followed by steadier, heavier rain later at night and through Thursday, tapering off by mid to late afternoon in the west and later in the east.

AMOUNTS
Generally we can expect 2-5″ along and south of the Pike, with a half inch to 2″ north of there in WMass, CMass, SVT and SWNH, but stay tuned for changes/updates.

Rain ends Thursday night with aforementioned lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s, which will be followed by a pair (if not a trio) of Autumnal tasters Friday into the weekend.

Mostly sunny skies, dry conditions, calm wind, highs 70-75º and lows 50-55º. Sunday may get more into the mid to upper 70s.

Yes, and thank you.

Another front approaches Sunday night with some more humidity and showers into Labor Day with highs in the 70s.

No heat surges in sight, but a taste of Fall certainly is, and as per fairly usual, a tropical system’s passage will help usher that in.

Have a great day!