Good afternoon everybody, despite what I believe to be true a few hours ago, clearing to the west of us over NY has markedly increased this afternoon, and as such, temps and humidity will increase and help produce instability that will track east into western parts of New England later this afternoon.
It’s a quick window before the front moves through. Given that we’re already moving into and past the 3pm hour with not much sunlight left, it’ll be a challenge for the atmosphere to produce widespread severe weather, which remains unlikely.
Showers and storms are much smaller in size out over NY state, but they are starting to grow a bit, and there is already a severe-warned storm near Utica, NY.
Wind shear is scheduled to get stronger over our region into the late afternoon and evening before the front comes through, and conditions will be most favorable for updrafting and low-level turning of the wind from south-southwest to west-southwest over southern VT and adjacent counties in NY, MA and NH.
This could lead to a couple of supercell thunderstorms that may produce isolated damaging straight line wind gusts, torrential rain, and a possible tornado or microburst.
Storms will be tracking west-southwest to east-northeast, so stay tuned for future updates.
I will simply edit this post if the Severe Thunderstorm Watch and/or Tornado Watches are posted, and will also post anew to try and reach others on this page.
More soon, stay tuned…
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[ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING… LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE, AS WELL AS A MICROBURST OR A WEAK TORNADO CAN’T BE RULED OUT… OTHERWISE, OUR RAINY MORNING CONTINUES WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES, BUT ON THE STEADIER/MODERATE SIDE, WHICH IS WELCOME… AUTUMNAL AIR TUMBLES EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN MASS REGION TOMORROW AND LASTS THROUGH MONDAY… SHOWERS ON TUESDAY LEAD TO MUGGIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH LOOKS GENERALLY UNSETTLED… 7:25AM SAT]
Good morning everybody, it sure was nice to wake up to a steady rain. I love that sound so much, it just blankets the world and surface atmosphere with a peaceful calm that serves as a balm to the soul.
We’ve seen a period of showers overspread the region after midnight thanks to a warm front that is pushing into the region. These showers, heavy at times, will continue to track northeast through the WMass region through about mid-morning (9am or 10am) before we get a break in the action.
There could be some more isolated to scattered showers, or shorter-term periods of showers that float through during late morning to mid afternoon, especially south of the Route 9 corridor in WMass and CMass, but a lull looks to take place.
Highs today will only reach the low to mid 70s and it will be humid, obviously.
It’s the early to late afternoon period that will be important to watch, which is when the warm front should be northeast of our region.
If we can get some sunny periods to help increase instability, this could lead to strong to severe thunderstorms moving through with the cold frontal passage this evening.
If instability is maximized, then we can’t rule out localized damaging wind gusts, or even an isolated instance of a microburst or a weak tornado, though with the amount of cloud debris I think will be in place, those maximized severe events don’t look likely at the moment.
Still, we will see at least a broken line of showers, downpours and thunderstorms move through with the front, but will have to stay tuned for the level of severity in terms of the weather associated with our frontal passage, so check back with me later, and I will of course post updates and will be watching it all day.
As for total precipitation, this steady rain this morning should lay down .2-.4 of an inch, maybe a little more in spots, and anyone that gets under these late day downpours or storms could see well over an inch of rain in localized areas.
For tonight, after any cold frontal storms pass through, lows will drop into the upper 50s to low 60s as drier air starts to work into the region and break up the clouds late.
After early morning partly sunny skies, Sunday will become a gorgeous Autumnal day, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s with northwest winds gusting 20-30mph at times.
Lows will PLUMMET tomorrow night, as winds die out, and skies are clear. Lows will dip into the mid to upper 40s as a result!!
High pressure dominates on Monday with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 70s, and lows in the 50s as clouds increase.
We’ll start to see a large upper level low push into south-central Canada heading towards southeastern Canada during the Tuesday through Friday period, which will send impulses into our region next week.
Tuesday looks showery at times, and a thunderstorm can’t be ruled out with highs in the low to mid 70s, and lows in the 50s.
Wednesday through Friday looks uncertain in terms of specifics and timing, but suffice it to say that it looks to warm up in the 75-80 range in the high terrain and the upper 70s to mid 80s in valley locations during the period, with a chance for scattered showers, downpours and thunderstorms each day.
More details on that as we get closer. Have a great day, and check back with me as we do have a chance for severe weather this late afternoon into early evening.