Good morning everybody, we have some patchy fog to start the morning with temps 65-70º. We have one more very warm and humid day on tap with highs well into the 80s and dew points well into the 60s to low 70s.
A line of convection fired over western NY last night, and it is decaying as it tracks southeast into western New England, but some thunderstorms are possible soon over the southern Taconics, southern Berkshires, and northwest Litchfield County before these dissipate into a few light to moderate showers further east. Any of us (generally west of I-91) could see a shower this morning, but this line is weakening.
After it passes through, expect partly sunny skies to develop, and enough humidity and warmth will be generated to destabilize the atmosphere before the actual cold front moves through later this afternoon.
The way it looks now, we still expect scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to develop by mid to late afternoon in the form of broken line segments, and these cells will be moving quickly.
With ample wind shear in place, damaging straight line wind gusts will be the main threat, with brief bouts of torrential rain as the line will be fast moving. Small hail is also possible, but less of a concern as of this writing.
After these showers and storms move through in the afternoon, high pressure out of Canada will quickly move in behind the cold front, and the resulting pressure gradient will cause northwest winds to gust 20-30mph this evening and overnight as cooler and drier advects into the region.
Lows will bottom out into the upper 40s to low 50s overnight!
Wednesday will be GORGEOUS with sunny skies, west to northwest gusts to 20mph, super dry air and highs only in the upper 60s to low 70s. Lows will again drop into the upper 40s to low 50s.
By Thursday, low pressure will be passing to our north and float a warm front into the region as a result. This will bring showers back into the forecast for Thursday, steadiest in the afternoon and into the night.
If we’re lucky, the front will sort of stall out over us and focus showers into a steadier band of rain from the afternoon into the night. A few thunderstorms will be possible, too. Highs will be in the 70s.
Showers will abate Thursday night and lows will drop into the low 60s.
For Friday, another lull period moves into the region with partly sunny skies expected and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s with a hilltown shower possible.
Clouds increase Friday night with lows in the low 60s, with showers possible after midnight.
Another system moves through Saturday, and will siphon moisture northward from the remnants of Hurricane Laura which will be suppressed to our south by our New England system, as Laura tracks east and off of the Mid-Atlantic coastline and out to sea.
This is likely to result in Saturday and Saturday night becoming very rainy, and downpours at times with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
Another blast of Autumnal air moves into the region for Sunday and Monday with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the low to mid 50s under mostly sunny skies with lower humidity.
Have a great day, and keep it tuned here for severe weather updates later today!