Good evening everybody, we have one more fairly potent thunderstorm in southern VT, but that will weaken as it tracks east into southern Windham County. A few other showers will rain out as well as convection dies and the atmosphere stabilizes this evening.
Lows tonight will drop into the mid 60s and patchy fog will be possible as dewpoints drop no further than the low to mid 60s.
For tomorrow, many ingredients will be present to produce a more widespread severe weather day.
Let’s hope this does not come to pass, and that enough drier air at the mid levels can be pulled west to east into our region aloft, which would choke out updrafts and prevent storms from going to powerful proportions.
However, we will have a strong upper level trough well north of us that will be strengthening, and that will send strong wind shear into the region (wind shear refers to a change of wind speed and/or direction with height from surface to sky). There will be plenty of moisture at the surface, and the incoming dry and cooler Canadian air behind a strong cold front that passes through tomorrow afternoon will bring plenty of lift to an unstable surface atmosphere.
If these elements align, and we don’t see too much in the way of morning showers and resultant “cloud debris”, and we also don’t see too much mid-level dry air being suctioned into our region, then we could see some supercellular storms form tomorrow by early to mid afternoon with large hail possible, and even a microburst couldn’t be ruled out.
In addition, a squall line could form ahead of the actual cold front, which could produce straight line damaging wind gusts.
All this to say, we’ve been through the ringer the past few days, and we have one more day to get through before we get a true break.
And, if the storm potential maximizes tomorrow, you must stay inside and get away from windows when they pass.
Folks know what I’m talking about if you live in Belchertown, Ware, Warren, the Brookfields and other southeastern areas of WMass and southwestern areas of CMass that got the stew knocked out of them yesterday afternoon and evening, and are still cleaning up and dealing with moderate to major damage to property.
Again, hopefully a couple key elements prevent a widespread severe event tomorrow.
Highs will reach the mid 80s to low 90s, and after any storm activity, lows will drop into the low to mid 50s as northwest winds pick up and gust 20-30mph at times tomorrow night into Wednesday as Autumnal air makes a one day stop over.
Wednesday is true Fall! Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, northwest winds gusting over 20mph at times, sunny, and very dry! Lows will plummet into the upper 40s to low 50s!
Enjoy it, because Thursday will feature another zonal-tracking low through the northern U.S. and this will float a warm front into the region, and hopefully focus a widespread area of showers and beneficial rains over the region, with a few general thunderstorms possible. Highs will be in the 70s and lows near 60.
Friday and Saturday look unsettled as more humid air is back into the region, and a frontal boundary will be laid about the region, focusing areas of showers and thunderstorms.
Then we watch the remnants of Hurricane Laura track to our south Friday night into Saturday, which should send some additional tropical moisture into our region with downpours expected at times, though no wind impact is forecast. Then we dry out by Sunday, which will be the pick of the weekend for sure!
HURRICANE LAURA
Just a quick note about Laura… this storm may track more westward than currently forecast, and make landfall somewhere between Port Arthur and Houston, TX. With Marco having dropped heavy rainfall along the southern Louisiana coastline, the track of Laura could exacerbate flooding issues in southwest Louisiana and eastern TX. In addition, the very warm waters of the Gulf could allow Laura to become a major hurricane prior to landfall, either a Cat 3 and possibly a low-level Cat 4.
Areas from Lafayette and Lake Charles, LA to Port Arthur, Beaumont and Galveston/Houston, TX should finish preparations for flooding and/or wind impacts asap.
Have a good evening, thank you for the reports today, and I will post my morning report tomorrow morning to update you on our potential WMass regional severe weather impacts for Tuesday, August 25th…
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[SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS OUR LATE SUMMER SURGE LOSES STEAM (LITERALLY) AND EMPTIES INTO A MORE AUTUMNAL FEEL BY WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL BE BREEZY, COOL AND COMFORTABLE… SEASONABLE TEMPS ARRIVE BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL RAINY IMPACTS FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE LAURA INTO FRIDAY… THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO IMPROVE AS WE MOVE THROUGH IT… THANKS FOR THE REPORTS YESTERDAY… 7:30AM MONDAY]
Good morning folks, that was a serious set of storms and rainfall yesterday, and there are still power outages this morning that resulted from what is called a Mesoscale Convective System (sometimes called a Mesoscale Convective Complex) that developed over southeastern portions of WMass and Worcester County south of Rt. 2 yesterday.
YESTERDAY
Interestingly, the action started up in eastern Franklin County, Cheshire County of SW.NH, and northern Worcester County earlier in the day, but it sagged south, and then we saw showers, downpours and storms continually re-fire, regenerate, and back build from northeastern Hampden County and southwest Worcester County into West Springfield before decaying and drifting away south and east.
This appears to have been due to cool pools of air that were generated due to strong downdrafting up high in the clouds that kept increasing the thermal gradient (i.e. lapse rate) and allowing convection to redevelop over the same areas.
A GOOD REMINDER
But you know, it’s a good reminder of something I learned about 15 years ago when I was going through one of the darkest periods of my life, when some dude I had never met who I was connected to by someone I knew who someone else got on the phone and told me “Dave, I’ve been where you are, I’ve done this, and you have to remember one thing: heavy weather passes. Sometimes you have to pull over, the windshield wipers can’t keep up, it’s too stormy, you have to just sit there and bear it, but eventually, with time, the rain stops, the clouds break up, and the sun comes out.”
That single piece of advice has helped me for the past 15 years, and even though some of you are cleaning up still today, don’t have power, and perhaps even had damage to your houses, over time, you’ll get it cleaned up, or find a way through it, somehow, at least I certainly hope so, so hang in there!
NOW HERE’S DAVE WITH THE WEATHER
The short story is that we have a couple of more days to deal with high heat and humidity before we move into a pattern change with overall cooler, more seasonable temperatures. For now, I’ll don my quiver replete with double-dashes and summarily sprinkle them with abandon below so you and your day can get on with it.
SUMMAH-RY
–We start off in the 60s, both for air temps and dew point temps
–This is why we have some patchy fog, but that will burn off with time, as will the clouds overhead
–Expect a mostly sunny day to develop, with increasing clouds in the afternoon
–Highs will reach the 85-90º range, and humidity will be high, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s again like yesterday
–We do expect scattered showers, downpours and thunderstorms again this afternoon, and a few may become strong to severe, so I will keep you updated this afternoon as I did yesterday
–We expect less coverage of storms today, but to be honest, after yesterday which became a much stronger event than was forecast, let’s just say I’m in monitoring mode
–For tonight, any showers and storms will decay and dissipate with time, and lows will drop into the low to mid 60s with muggy conditions
–On Tuesday, a strong cold front will slice northwest to southeast through the region, however, it may come through towards the noon hour
–The faster it comes through, the less the surface atmosphere has a chance to destabilize and maximize severity of storm development
–Surely, there will be other factors that favor strong to severe thunderstorms, such as strong wind shear, and ample lift generated by the passage of the front
–Moisture will be plentiful, too, as it will quite humid, but the total instability produced will be a factor of how much cloudiness develops and how fast the front moves through, so I will be watching it
–The Storm Prediction Center gives us the strongest chance of the Sunday/Monday/Tuesday period for severe weather, so more on that as we get closer
–Highs tomorrow should reach the low to mid 80s with muggy conditions
–Any showers and storms should wind down quickly tomorrow evening as the front clears the region, and much drier and cooler Canadian air rushes in from the northwest
–Temps should plummet into low to mid 50s with northwest winds picking up and gusting over 20mph into Wednesday, which should feature super dry conditions, sunny skies, and highs in the low to mid 70s for an Autumnal feel.
–Lows Wednesday night bottom out in the upper 40s to low 50s!
–Thursday should feature similar highs in the low to mid 70s with a few showers possible late and lows in the mid to upper 50s
–It’s the late Thursday night through Friday period that we have to watch for any (IF any) impacts from the remnants of Hurricane Laura
–Some rain and humidity is possible, but it’s too early to have any certainty at this point
–The weekend looks to become increasingly nicer into Sunday, and highs in that Friday through Sunday period look to generally hold in the 75-80º range
Have a great day, and stay tuned today and tomorrow for updates on possible severe weather and this muggy air mass.