Good morning everybody, I hope you slept well, lots to talk about, so I am going to jump into Summah-ry Mode (TM) ovah heah (no, I don’t have an EMass accent, but yes I love talking in an EMass accent, because EMass is my people, for cripes sake).
SUMMAH-RY
–Abundant sunshine early today, with increasing heat and humidity
–Any early morning fog patches evaporate into the void just like we all do eventually (a dark reality moment with Dave Hayes, too early in the AM?)
–Strong surface heating today will send highs soaring into the mid 80s to low 90s, and we can’t rule out some mid 90s in the Springfield/Hartford Heat Corridor, so named by me (yes, I like to make words up and name stuff, and no, there is no such thing as the SHHC, though the heat tends to be hottest in that region of the lower Pioneer Valley each summer, I mean summah)
–We’ll have weaker wind shear today, but stronger instability levels, and we could get some localized strong gusty winds and torrential downpours in any storms that form later this afternoon and into the evening
–The wind field is moving west to east, so that’s the track for today, so keep an eye west
–For tonight, any showers and storms will decay, and we’ll see lows drop into the low to mid 60s with patchy fog developing late
–For Monday, less of a chance for showers and storms, but I do think we’ll see some develop by early to mid afternoon
–Highs will reach the 85-90º range with humid conditions persisting
–There won’t be a lot of movement within the air mass overhead tomorrow, so I expect more pulse-up/pulse-down type storms that basically rain themselves out, preventing them from becoming too formidable
–Lows tomorrow night will dip into the mid to upper 60s, and still humid
–Tuesday is my greatest concern over the next 7 days weather-wise
–A strong surface and upper low pressure area will be diving southeast into eastern New Brunswick and Newfoundland, Canada, and will send a cold frontal boundary into the New England region, tracking north to south
–At the same time, what is called an EML, or Elevated Mixed Layer (i.e. an area of drier, well-mixed air aloft, that acts like a cap in the lower atmosphere) will be floating overhead from the Ohio Valley
–We’ll be plenty warm and and plenty humid at the lower levels
–These elements may combine to produce severe thunderstorms across the area, although I’m not positive as to whether these would be in super-cellular mode or squall-line mode (or both)
–The EMLs are interesting in that they cap storms from growing too tall, but if storms can BUST through the cap, they can become quasi-monsters, because the lapse rates (i.e. the temperature gradient from a warmer lower level aloft to a much colder higher level further aloft) above EMLs can act like letting a cork go 20 feet under water… storms can just shoot skyward and become severe quickly
–Plus, the strong cold front will act as a forcing agent, and that would tend to favor a squall line with damaging wind gusts possible
–All this to say, with humid conditions and highs in the 80s, stay tuned for updates on Tuesday, folks
–I have attached the SPC’s “Slight Risk” of severe thunderstorm map, and I have never seen it painted across the entirety of New England, and the entirety of the Northeast U.S. down through the northern Mid-Atlantic and out into the eastern Ohio Valley before, so this one bears watching
–By Tuesday night into Wednesday, strong high pressure moves in on the heels of our departing severe weather threat, and the pressure gradient will result in gusty northwest winds, most likely as Autumnal air blows in for Wednesday, dramatically lowering humidity levels, and cooling temps into the low to mid 70s for highs, and low to mid 50s for lows
–Then by late week humidity returns with highs in the 75-80º range, and we turn to the remnants of Hurricane Laura, which will likely be shunted south of New England by said incoming high pressure system for mid-week
–Still, it will bear watching, so stay tuned on THAT piece
–Then into next weekend, there’s a chance we could really dry out and cool down with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s
Lots going on over the next week, so keep it tuned here folks, I will keep you updated, make sure your settings are set to “See First” and “Notifications” are set to On so I have a better chance of popping up in your newsfeed.
On that housekeeping score, if you haven’t visited many of your other “liked” FB pages in a while, consider unliking a bunch of them to try and help me show up more for you, otherwise think of me like a TV station, and visit me actively during anticipated busy weather days (or any day of the week, I’m always here).
Stay tuned for updates later today as strong to severe thunderstorms may impact some of us today.
Have a great day and stay healthy, dammit! :-)