TODAY’S NUTSHELL: Good morning folks, we saw more clouds overnight which kept temps warmer so no frost, but now we face a lovely Thursday before we enter an (at times) unsettled period. We’ll see showers and a t-storm in the Friday pre-dawn hours, followed by isolated showers Friday, more showers by Saturday, and then an uncertain Sunday into next-week period thanks to a meandering cutoff upper low!
TABLE OF CONTENTS
* Daily Celestials (Sun/Moon)
* Sponsor Section
* Your Short-Term ZoneCast
* Morning Discussion
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YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS
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STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 5:45am this morning
–OUR STAR SETS AT: 7:49pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 14 hours and 4 minutes
MOON:
–OUR MOON RISES AT: 8:28am this morning
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: Northeast
–OUR MOON SETS AT: 12:58am tomorrow morning
–MOON SET DIRECTION: Northwest
–MOON PHASE: Waxing Crescent (18 .6%)
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A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR
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Dave Hayes The Weather Nut is Sponsored by Individual Community Members, Patrons, and Tandem Bagel Company… No matter the weather, Tandem Bagel is always there for you at several valley locations to make your mornings brighter! With *New Pizza Bagels(!)*, along with bagels baked fresh daily (including Gluten-Free options), house-whipped cream cheese, coffee, and tons of lunch options, Tandem is the perfect quick stop for lunch, breakfast, or a coffee and bagel to go.
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YOUR SHORT-TERM ZONECAST
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ZONE 1 – Northern Region
(Southern VT, Southwest NH)
–Highs Today: Mid to Upper 60s
–Lows Tonight: Upper 40s to Low 50s
–Highs Tomorrow: Low to Mid 70s
–Winds: Light southerly today and tonight, SW gusts to 20mph tomorrow
–Skies: Mostly sunny today, mostly cloudy tonight and tomorrow
–Precip: None today, showers or a t-storm tomorrow pre-dawn hours, then an isolated shower possible during Friday
–NWS Alerts + Nut Notes: None
ZONE 2 – Central Region
(Western MA, North-Central MA, Northern Litchfield CT)
–Highs Today: Mid 60s to Low 70s
–Lows Tonight: Upper 40s to Low 50s
–Highs Tomorrow: 70s to low 80s
–Winds: Light southerly today and tonight, SW gusts to 20mph tomorrow
–Skies: Mostly sunny today, mostly cloudy tonight and tomorrow
–Precip: None today, showers or a t-storm tomorrow pre-dawn hours, then an isolated shower possible during Friday
–NWS Alerts + Nut Notes: None
ZONE 3 – Southern Region
(South-Central MA, Northern CT)
–Highs Today: Upper 60s to Low 70s
–Lows Tonight: Upper 40s to Low 50s
–Highs Tomorrow: Upper 70s to low 80s
–Winds: Light southerly today and tonight, SW gusts to 20mph tomorrow
–Skies: Mostly sunny today, mostly cloudy tonight and tomorrow
–Precip: None today, showers or a t-storm tomorrow pre-dawn hours, then an isolated shower possible during Friday
–NWS Alerts + Nut Notes: None
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YOUR MORNING DISCUSSION
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Good morning everybody, did anybody snap any sunrise pics? It is certainly lovely albeit cool start to the day, although it clearly did not get as cold as I thought it would overnight, so I don’t expect to hear of any frost reports this morning.
For today, departing high pressure continues its influence on our sensible weather, with mostly sunny skies expected and highs rising into the mid 60s to low 70s.
For tonight, clouds will be on the increase as a warm front approaches the region. This will push an area of showers with an embedded thunderstorm or two through between 1am and 8am, roughly as lows bottom out to either side of 50º.
As the front is passing through, patchy fog may develop as well for early Friday morning.
Once the front clears our region on Friday, we’re off to the races with high temps expected to reach well into the 70s, and into the low 80s for parts of the southern Pioneer Valley from about Holyoke down to Hartford. We could also see some isolated showers by tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Lows Friday night will be mild, only dropping to the mid 50s or so, and we could also see an isolated shower or thunderstorm.
As for the weekend into next week, my crystal ball is clouded, to be honest, and that is because I am expecting an upper low pressure center to become “cutoff” from the predominant upper steering flows that move and guide our surface weather systems.
This cutoff looks to get pinched out around the southern Ohio Valley, with the upper low sort of meandering or stalled out to our west-southwest.
What this feature does and how it acts will help determine our weather conditions for the weekend into the middle of next week, by which time the upper low looks to reconnect with the jet stream (i.e. get “picked up”) and lofted east and out to sea by late next week.
For now, Saturday looks showery by mid-day into the afternoon, with the main area of showers potentially lifting north of the Route 2 corridor by evening, but I will have to update you on this.
Highs Saturday look to rise into the 70s with lows in the 50s, and highs on Sunday in the 60s.
When looking at the pattern for Sunday into the middle of next week, a chance of scattered showers is possible each day, but I will need to get closer to get a better idea of how that upper low will impact our daily conditions, and I will stay on top of it and update you as things become more clear.
Have a great day!
“Follow your bliss and the universe will open doors for you where there were only walls.”
― Joseph Campbell