>>> YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS <<<
STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 6:22am this morning
–OUR STAR WILL SET AT: 7:12pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 12 hours and 50 minutes
MOON:
–OUR MOON WILL SET AT: 4:09pm this afternoon
–MOON SET DIRECTION: Northwest
–OUR MOON WILL RISE AT 12:39am tomorrow morning
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: Northeast
–MOON PHASE: Waning Crescent (35.2%)
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>>> DAVE’S WEEKLY WEATHER NUTSHELL <<<
–Final day of our heat wave with Heat Advisories up for the valley, northern CT and CMass
–In fact, the heat wave really broke yesterday, but a few spots should touch 90º extending it by day, with very humid conditions
–Mostly sunny to start, with clouds building and scattered showers/storms by afternoon
–Some may be strong to severe like last night mostly west of I-91, with wind damage and hail possible
–Main timeframe is 2-8pm today, possibly with some showers lasting overnight with lows in the 60s and humid
–Rinse and repeat Saturday with a dry start and then showers and storms in the afternoon, waning at night, highs mid 70s to low 80s, humid
–Sunday a cold front will be pressing into the region and low pressure should develop along it
–This brings more of a flash flooding, heavy rain chance with some embedded general thunderstorms with highs in the 70s
–Monday sees more showers, and then the front swings east slowly, allowing for a drier Tuesday
–Then, more humid conditions and showers/storms are expected mid to late next week with a second/final upper Great Lakes trough tracking east, and it’s this feature that determines our fate with potential impacts from Hurricane Lee
–We cannot yet rule out that the trough moves more slowly and guides Lee right up and into our region causing major damage and problems across the region, but before we talk details let’s check a note from our local and delicious sponsor, #TandemBagelCo, with their newest location in the Stop & Shop Plaza on King Street in Northampton, MA.
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>>> A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR <<<
Dave Hayes The Weather Nut is Sponsored by Individual Community Members, Patrons & Tandem Bagel Company… No matter the weather, Tandem Bagel is always there for you at several valley locations to make your mornings brighter! With bagels baked fresh daily (including Gluten-Free options), house-whipped cream cheese, coffee, and tons of lunch options, Tandem is the perfect quick stop for lunch, breakfast, or a coffee and bagel to go. Find them in Easthampton, Northampton, Hadley, Florence, and West Springfield, or use their super-streamlined online ordering tool by visiting their website.
>>> MORNING DISCUSSION <<<
Good morning folks, thanks for all of the reports last night, there were a number of wind damage reports as that cluster swept northeast through our far northwestern zones of Berkshire County, western Hampshire/Franklin, and up into SVT and parts of SWNH after sunset, as expected.
It looks like after a calm but warm and humid start, we’ll see temps climb up into the mid 80s to either side of 90º as our heat wave ends, but clouds will be building by afternoon and thereafter, we should see scattered showers and thunderstorms forming.
Some of these storms may become strong to severe like last night with pockets of wind damage and/or larger hail with frequent lightning gien the amount of instability that will be present today.
The main timeframe for this activity is today 2-9pm, let’s say, with a few showers overnight after the main cells die off or pass east. Lows will dip into the mid to upper 60s with patchy fog possible.
Saturday is another day in this muggy morass as a slow moving upper trough continues to feed moisture, lift, and instability through the region.
So, expect more afternoon showers and thunderstorms, though storm severity should be less tomorrow, and then non-existent on Sunday.
Highs will reach the 75-80º range Saturday, then the 70s on Sunday, which now looks more like a street flooding potential.
We’ll have that cold front sliding east slowly, and low pressure will develop along it helping to produce areas of downpours and move over the same region, a/k/a “training”.
This could cause some flash flooding issues, mostly on streets and in urban areas, and could last into the night.
Monday should be our last day of this current round of unsettled weather as that front and trough slide east, but a second front and trough setup to do the same thing for Wednesday through Saturday, culminating with Hurricane Lee.
Tuesday before that looks like a drier lull, so that’s the pick of the week as far as I can tell at this range, and highs next week will be in the 70s, but still quite humid.
By mid-week the influence of this second trough starts to be felt by us here in the greater WMass region with more humidity and showers and storms scattered about.
It is during Wednesday and Thursday when we will also see more clearly how Hurricane Lee is going to track and what impacts if any it will have on New England or Atlantic Canada.
My money is still on a Nova Scotia hit, but everything is still on the table, including Lee running right up the CT River Valley, which would of course be devastating for a wide swath of southern New England and produce damage I’d rather not discuss at this range.
Let’s get through the weekend, see its strength and position, and I will watch guidance and trends and read my discussions and look at the data and then will start to get a better handle on this thing.
Nobody should want Lee to strike New England, it could be catastrophic, and I don’t use that word lightly.
I will keep you updated, have a great day!
>>> BE KIND <<<
“Hello babies. Welcome to Earth. It’s hot in the summer and cold in the winter. It’s round and wet and crowded. On the outside, babies, you’ve got a hundred years here. There’s only one rule that I know of, babies: Goddamn it, you’ve got to be kind.”
–Kurt Vonnegut