>>> YOUR DAILY CELESTIALS <<<
STAR:
–OUR STAR ROSE AT: 6:28am this morning
–OUR STAR WILL SET AT: 7:03pm this evening
–TOTAL DAYLIGHT TIME: 12 hours and 35 minutes

MOON:
–OUR MOON WILL SET AT: 6:49pm this afternoon
–MOON SET DIRECTION: West-Northwest
–OUR MOON WILL RISE AT: 5:50am tomorrow morning
–MOON RISE DIRECTION: East-Northeast
–MOON PHASE: Waning Crescent (2.5%)
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>>> DAVE’S WEEKLY WEATHER NUTSHELL <<<
–Patchy dense fog evaporates later this morning
–Most importantly, a strong thunderstorm approaches the WMass region at 7am
–This is a potent cell with gusty winds potentially, very heavy rain, and frequent lightning as it moves through after 7:30am (already arriving in NW.CT, southern Berkshires and SW.Hilltowns)
–We cannot rule out a transient weak tornado today, though it’s a very low chance
–After this cell, scattered showers, downpours and thunderstorms form into clusters this afternoon and eve
–Flood Watches are up for the Valley, northern CT and CMass
–Flash flooding is expected in some spots today, so be alert to road conditions when driving in heavy rain and get to high ground if conditions change, whenever possible
–Highs today either side of 70º, lows in the 50s, and similar highs/lows for Thursday and Friday
–We dry out overnight, with a pair of temperate, low humidity days Thurs and Friday
–Clouds increase Friday night, and Hurricane Lee may make a closer pass to the outer Cape
–This could spread gusts of 20-40mph into the WMass region, and as high as 50mph gusts into northeast CT and far eastern CMass with some rain shoowers at times Saturday
–The Cape may gust 50-75mph as the wind field expands, with heavy rain down that way, coastal flooding possible, rip tides, beach erosion, and power outages, prepare if you live on the Cape
–Sunday is the weekend pick as drier, cooler air moves back in behind Lee’s departure, but before we talk details let’s check a note from our local and delicious sponsor, #TandemBagelCo, with their newest location in the Stop & Shop Plaza on King Street in Northampton, MA.
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>>> A NOTE FROM OUR SPONSOR <<<
Dave Hayes The Weather Nut is Sponsored by Individual Community Members, Patrons & Tandem Bagel Company… No matter the weather, Tandem Bagel is always there for you at several valley locations to make your mornings brighter! With bagels baked fresh daily (including Gluten-Free options), house-whipped cream cheese, coffee, and tons of lunch options, Tandem is the perfect quick stop for lunch, breakfast, or a coffee and bagel to go. Find them in Easthampton, Northampton, Hadley, Florence, and West Springfield, or use their super-streamlined online ordering tool by visiting their website.

>>> MORNING DISCUSSION <<<
Good morning everybody, we’re starting off with cloudiness, some great sunrises (pics please!) and patchy dense fog, all as we await a little bowling ball of a thunderstorm that survived the trip overnight.

This thunderstorm is pushing into southern Litchfield County at 7am and will then head toward somewhere between the Holyoke to Hartford stretch after 7:30am and bring heavy rain to the morning commute, so watch for ponding on road ways.

We also can’t rule out strong gusty winds as this blows through, so just be alert.

Otherwise, it’s a wet, very humid, showery day with more showers, storms and downpours forming later and slowing moving through the region.

Flood Watches have been hoisted and this will renew areas of flash flooding today and this evening, so please be careful if you are out heavy rains.

It’s smart to be aware of changing road conditions so you can respond and optimize safety, as flood waters can come up quick. Do your best to get to high ground whenever possible.

Highs today will be cooler, only either side of 70º with lows in the 50s as final showers move out tonight, and drier air moves in after midnight, with dewpoints crashing into the 50s as well.

I will, of course, keep you updated with additional reports through today and tonight as our final potential flooding event unfolds with the passage of tonight’s cold front, which will sweep this atmospheric crap out of here.

Thursday and Friday look like total winners, with high pressure building into the region from our north, providing northwest flow, and plenty of sunshine with dry, low-humidity air, thank whoever you typically thank for that, woo hoo!!

Highs will be either side of 70º and lows either side of 50º each day.

Clouds increase Friday night and we turn to Hurricane Lee.

Trends are starting to indicate a more westward track, with that second upper trough swinging east Friday, and starting to lure Lee closer to Cape Cod.

It’s hard to see how the center runs over any part of the Cape, but it could get quite close as the center eventually sets up to make landfall somewhere in coastal Maine (my belief right now is somewhere either side of Penobscot Bay), but as far as east as western or central Nova Scotia.

This would push tropical impacts onto the Cape with gusts of 50-75mph, numerous power outages, heavy rain, coastal flooding, beach erosion, rip currents and waves of 15-25 feet.

For us in the WMass region, wind gusts could reach 20-40mph out of the north with some rain showers as the storm’s cloud, wind and rain shields expand while it goes from a tropical system to an extratropical system.

Areas of CMass and northeast CT could see gusts of 30mph to as much as 50mph with heavier rain bands at times there, so please stay tuned for updates on Lee as we get closer.

Sunday is definitely the pick of the weekend with sunshine, breezy conditions, and highs near 70º, with fair weather hopefully extending into early next week.

Have a great day today, pack your rain gear, and remember to turn around, don’t drown.

Yes, it’s a rather hokey, corny saying, but similar to “when thunder roars go indoors”, these are words to LIVE by, if you catch my drift!

More updates later today, likely around mid-day to start…

>>> BE KIND <<<
“Hello babies. Welcome to Earth. It’s hot in the summer and cold in the winter. It’s round and wet and crowded. On the outside, babies, you’ve got a hundred years here. There’s only one rule that I know of, babies: Goddamn it, you’ve got to be kind.”
–Kurt Vonnegut